It’s the first in a series of twilight Friday cards for this Colonial meet and I’m excited enough about where they slot in the racing schedule to commit to covering them all meet. With a 4pm first post, it’s nestled right between the end of a Saratoga card and the beginning of Del Mar (who usually starts at 7pm). Hopefully that will lead to some eyeballs on what is the best racing product in this part of the country.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-1-3-4
- Race 2: 7-1-6-3
- Race 3: 3-4-9-6
- Race 4: 9-2-7-5
- Race 5: 7-1-4-6
- Race 6: 6-4-8-9
- Race 7: 6-7-1-9
- Race 8: 4-5-2-8
- Race 9: 11-3-2-12
Colonial Downs Race 1: Belle Ofthe Dance (#5) at 4-1 or higher
The opener on Friday evening feels like a race where no horse should be shorter than 7/2 and none higher than 7/1, but I doubt it will get bet that way. While second choice on the morning line, I anticipate seeing Destination (#3) go off favored in this spot and I view her as the horse to beat. She has figures as an early 3YO that would compete and she’s likely to have grown up a bit since then. While Brittany Russell generally does great work with new additions to her barn, that’s not necessarily the case when they’re coming off long layoffs like this with an ROI of $1.07. I’m even more against the ML favorite to the outside. While she’s run the best figures, Alyvia Mavis (#6) is 0/19 in her career and goes out for the Jamie Ness barn who has been dreadful at Colonial these past few years with a record of 2/23 (9%, $0.44 ROI) on the dirt course here. I think Not This Gal (#1) is interesting drawn on the rail for Kenny McPeek who has brought a string here this year. This filly got loose in the post parade prior to her debut so I’m willing to forgive that effort, though its concerning she didn’t take a lick of play on the tote. This is a pretty good move for this barn with a record of 16/104 (15%, $2.61 ROI) with 2nd start runners 3YO+ in dirt maiden races and she’s got a work in over the course. I’ll use her prominently, but my top pick is going to be another second-time starter in Belle Ofthe Dance (#5). This is also a good move for the Nacho Correas barn with a record of 4/22 (18%, $3.07 ROI) with the same parameters as the McPeek runner. While this Honor A.P. filly didn’t pick up her feet in her debut, there’s reason to forgive that effort. 1) It came over a sloppy surface she might not have enjoyed and 2) the Correas barn isn’t known for winning first out yet she was sent off at 7-1. I think this filly has ability based on her workout videos that are available on the Keeneland site.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Built By Khozan (#9) at 4-1 or higher
This looks like a well-matched field in this Mdn $40k turf sprint. The horse to beat in my eyes is Captain Eddie (#2) who just missed in his debut and only turf start. He had speed then, but that start was over 18 months ago so we’ll see if Mary Lightner has him ready to go off the break as she usually points to this meet. Over the last five years this barn is an absurd 10/23 (43%, $3.23 ROI) in turf sprints at Colonial. I’m going to play that the recency edge will put my top pick Built by Khozan (#9) over the top. While it might be tempting to dismiss his last effort as a fluke since he was 31-1 that day, I think this colt just found a home turf sprinting. In his only previous try on the grass, he was caught in a wicked pace. Now he’s drawn outside which gives his jockey options to clear off if no one goes or stalk outside and pounce in the lane.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Sand and Sea (#6) at 5-1 or higher
Both the inside and outside runners in this allowance event have to take money in this spot as both Avenue Niel (Ire) (#1) and Elysian Field (#9) drop in out of a consistent dose of stakes races. They both have questions to answer though as the former wasn’t really competitive against those tougher fields since leaving the Clement barn and the latter has an 8mo layoff to contend with. Belle of Rights (#7) is super dangerous in this spot for connections that team up well together at Colonial. The trainer/jockey combo of Shug McGaughey and Forest Boyce hit at 36% together in turf races here and she was aboard for her most recent win when able to rally from last to get up albeit with a fast pace in front of her. I’ll take Sand and Sea (#6) on top in this spot as I think her form is all dirtied up. Some may think she’s lost a step as a 7YO, but I think getting back to turf will do her wonders. There’s plenty of races if you isolate her grass efforts that would be good enough to win this and I’m expecting an aggressive ride from Machado to set the tone early. I’m thinking she’ll either be able to wire the field or the pace will be hot setting it up for Belle of Rights.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Spring Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 25-8-6-2 (32%, $2.84); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.89)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 14-3-3-1 (21%, $3.66); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-1 (14%, $2.40)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 60%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 0%
