We’re choosing our spots for full-card coverage at this Colonial meet, sticking to the programs that will garner the most attention during the summer meet. With the 4pm first post nestled right between Saratoga and Del Mar, I believe the Friday cards provide a nice place to get stuck into throughout the next few months. This card even has a couple stakes races including the Punch Line where Colonial-specialist Determined Kingdom looks to win the event for the fourth consecutive year.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-10-2-1
- Race 2: 6-3-2-4
- Race 3: 1-7-5-3
- Race 4: 3-2-4-8
- Race 5: 6-1-4-7
- Race 6: 5-4-3-11
- Race 7: 8-3-2-1
- Race 8: 9-11-1-3
- Race 9: 12-10-5-9
Colonial Downs Race 3: War World Rocks (#1) at 9-2 or higher
Juveniles take to the expansive Colonial dirt course and there seems to be three clear contenders in this spot for me. From watching some workouts available on the Keeneland website, there’s a chance American Tapit (#7) might be too good for these. This is an ambitious placing from the Nacho Correas barn to put this filly in against the boys, but I’m imagining the 6.5f distance is the main factor as this daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah looks to stride out nicely in the morning. However, debuting 2YO’s is not a positive move for this barn generally. Channel the Music (#5) looks like the main danger as he’s got a start under his belt and when the Duarte barn reaches out to Colonial journeyman rider Horatio Karamanos they hit at 38% with a $3.68 ROI. I’m going to take who should be the longest price of these three main contenders and make War World Rocks (#1) the top pick. The Munoz barn is off to a slow start at the meet, but this debuting 2YO’s is one of its specialties. In the last five years they are 5/27 (19%, $2.79 ROI) with juvenile firsters on the dirt in MSW’s. That stat also applies to his other runner in the race Antrax (#3), but it’s worth noting both runners have a half-mile work over the Colonial dirt course on 7/9 and War World Rocks went nearly 1.5 seconds faster. Furthermore, this colt is by freshman sire Rock Your World whose progeny appear to be precocious with wins by 3/8 debut runners.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Habana Boy (#3) at 7-2 or higher
There’s plenty of ways to go in this Mdn $16k claimer, but the 5f nature of the race has me looking towards those with early speed. Paez (#2) could end up going off favored coming in from Gulfstream and while he’s 0/13 lifetime only three of those efforts came over the grass and none at this low of a level. I’m somewhat against the morning line favorite Head of the Class (#9) as I don’t see that much turf pedigree on display. Shear Magic (#4) and Mamba Mindset (#8) both make some sense as well as unexposed grass horses, but I wanted to get more creative for my top pick. I’m really hoping the Munoz barn heats up as I’m making 2 of his charges spot plays of mine this evening. Habana Boy (#3) gets to the turf for the first time and there’s reason to believe he’ll handle it as his dam won three times on grass and Adios Charlie progeny wins 15% of his their turf sprints. I like that this colt flashed an abundance of speed in his last start before tiring due to the quick pace. This barn’s horses always break sharp and these 5f sprints are often over in a flash.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Give Life (#9) at 2-1 or higher
Plenty of handicappers will be tempted to look at this N1X allowance as a wide-open affair, but it’s my belief that if Give Life (#9) displays the same talent she had at two in her 3YO return to the races, the rest of these fillies and mares are running for second. This filly won over the course and distance on debut for a barn in Nacho Correas that does not often win first out of the box. She then was caught in fast paces against solid stakes competition at both Kentucky Downs and Keeneland to close her juvenile campaign. Her figures as a 2YO already put her in the mix and I’d expect some routine improvement to put her on another level in this spot while also getting Lasix for the first time. As far as alternatives, J Z’s Last Shance (#1) has gotten into excellent form as of late and Sugar Bee (#11) should appreciate this class drop and cutback in distance after trying to rally into a slow pace in NY last time. Mo Hype (#3) is on an upward trajectory for a hot Robb barn and Levigata (#5) could move forward off her debut on the surface switch being by solid turf sprint sire Jimmy Creed. I’ll use those four in exacta key boxes with Give Life, but most of my late P5 play will be going through my top pick.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 35-8-7-5 (23%, $1.55); Featured Horses: 10-2-0-2 (20%, $2.08)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 17-2-3-2 (12%, $1.04); Featured Horses: 6-1-0-1 (17%, $2.37)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 34%; B’s: 40%; C’s: 23%; X’s: 3%
