We’ve reached the final weekend of racing at Colonial Downs for the 2025 season and only two cards remain this year. However, we’ll only have to wait until March for the return to racing as the Virginia Derby will once again present a “Win-And-You’re-In” opportunity to the Kentucky Derby
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Selections
- Race 1: 1-3-6-2
- Race 2: 7-5-1-6
- Race 3: 6-1-5-9
- Race 4: 3-6-2-4
- Race 5: 4-3-6-8
- Race 6: 7-3-6-4
- Race 7: 3-5-7-2
- Race 8: 10-3-4-2
Colonial Downs Race 3: Courage on Tap (#6) at 7-1 or higher
The pair of Kiss Me Mo (#5) and Tap Into Grace (#9) figure to vie for favoritism in this maiden optional claimer as the former ran a respectable second at this level on debut and the latter finds a much more comfortable class level after beginning her career in an open maiden special weight at Delaware. I wouldn’t argue with anyone that suggests they are the two most likely winners, but they went off at 25-1 and 11-1 respectively in their debuts and will be a small fraction of those prices this evening. There’s quite a few first-time starters lined up for this one, but the only one I could endorse using is Cupid’s Choice (#1) given the connection of Xavier Perez and John Robb have had success with juveniles this year. However, I wanted a bit of a wildcard and landed on Courage On Tap (#6) as the top selection. This filly was bet down to 2-1 in an open maiden special weight at Penn National on debut and while that wasn’t a tough field, it’s good to see her take some money. That was also the case in her latest start, but it was clear she didn’t handle the synthetic surface disappointing as the 3-5 favorite at Presque Isle. Phil Schoenthal’s barn has spring some upsets with juveniles here at Colonial Downs over the years. I’m hoping the backers have jumped off her bandwagon by this point and she’ll be a playable price in a race where I don’t want to settle for the short prices.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Volunteer Fireman (#4) at 4-1 or higher
I’d imagine Finestkind (#6) might be a heavy favorite in this VA-Restricted maiden event given the fact he contested the pace before tiring against open MSW company last month. He’s got powerful human connections in his corner trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Antonio Gallardo, but I’m not ready to concede this race to him. That’s especially the case because I’d expect some improvement second-time out for Lonesome Road (#3). The Trombetta barn usually doesn’t have them cranked up to win first out and this colt has an excellent pedigree. In addition to being a half-brother to G1W Mindframe, he’s also a sibling of Hollywood Walk who has notched two stakes victories over this course and distance this meet. My only concern is him having enough speed turning back to the 5.5f. Speed is not an issue when it comes to my top pick Volunteer Fireman (#4). I think Derek Ryan’s barn has found a cozy spot in this VA-Restricted event given this KY-Bred has been competing against open company at Monmouth throughout his career. He displayed an abundance of early foot in his most recent start and I think getting back to turf he might be able to take these wire-to-wire.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Gelinotte (#10) at 6-1 or higher
The Friday nightcap brings together the largest field on the card. I’m not enthralled with most of the short-ish prices on the morning line, but the one that seems the most dangerous happens to be the morning line favorite Lady Valor (#3). This 2YO filly will try grass for the first time after finishing 3rd at 2-1 on debut earlier this meet. The Campbell barn is always one to watch with juveniles at Colonial and Maxfield is off to a hot start as a new stallion. There’s one first-time starter that I’d want to have somewhere on my tickets and that’s Ivy Garden (#4). As mentioned previously, the Schoenthal barn can win with 2YO’s here and this filly’s dam won her debut and a G3 as a juvenile. My concern is that being by Tacitus, the 5.5f might not suit. I’ve landed on Gelinotte (#10) as the top pick to close the card. This filly lost all chance in her debut after a bump at the start and a check near the half-mile pole. That race also came against open MSW company and now she finds an easier maiden o/c spot. I think this switch to the turf will suit as she’s by the versatile Maclean’s Music. The Ochoa barn has lightyears better numbers with second-time starters than they do on debut and she picks up a top rider for this try.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 9/6)
All
Top Picks: 190-50-44-29 (26%, $1.81); Featured Horses: 59-11-12-15 (19%, $2.05)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 117-24-28-16 (21%, $1.91); Featured Horses: 46-9-10-10 (20%, $2.35)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 44%; B’s: 35%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
