Greetings for day two of the seven day meet at Kentucky Downs! For this card, I have a pair of spots that caught my eye in maiden events (which, in my opinion, are the best types of races to handicap) as well as a look at the last three races on the card, which includes the two features of the day and covers the new $3 Late Pick 3 and $5 Late Double for us to try. Plus we have the first of the Kentucky Downs “King of the Turf” Handicapping Challenge contests today, which you can learn more about on the Kentucky Downs website and hopefully still enter at the time of release (and reading).

SATURDAY, AUG. 28 RECAP

Race 1 – Top call #9 Nu Why Me improved only mildly in the second start, again running greenly when shuffled out of the early speed past the quarter. She had every chance to take the next step forward, but did not seem up to the task. Never gave a sniff to the winner, #13 Dazzling, since she was on the AE list, but Leparoux placed her in the perfect spot stalking the speed on the outside in the second flight. She likely got into a better rhythm at the longer distance, but besides that her form coming into the race seemed on par with several others.

With #7 Just You and Me scratched, I was left with two exotic hopes, though without an inkling of the winner it didn’t amount to anything (for me anyway). #6 Cherokee Purple did show a great flourish but had too much ground to cover, though a slick inside ride got her close for the win at 7-1 odds. #1 By Her Decree got a great ride from Adam Beschizza but again was flat in the closing stages of the race. The horse I thought would be a crazy longshot, #8 Dolly Partime, went off the 4-1 second choice! And she did improve massively on the surface switch and stretch out, but not enough to warrant any action at that low of odds.

Race 6 – The scratch of #9 Waggley (who I should’ve seen was cross-entered in a stake for Sunday) changed the betting picture of this race entirely. My longshot call #4 Arctic Wolf definitely did not reach the 20-1 morning line price with the major scratch, but he did get into the race as he needed to by blasting for the lead and trying to go all the way if good enough. He unfortunately tired at 10-1 but held onto fourth while #2 Good to Be King, who I cited as a possible winner but likely exotic type due to his late running style, was another to complete the exacta on the day but did so as the 7-2 favorite behind winner #6 Mid American, bet down to 5-1 from a 20-1 morning line. The winner made sense off a pouncing maiden win on the surface switch last out at Ellis, plus he had the right amount of speed to fire into for the win. I clearly had the wrong James DiVito horse on the day. At this point in the day, I was thinking the overall fair track is proving built (at these approx. eight furlong distances and shorter) for those close stalking types like the one who won in the first and in this race.

Race 7 – My counterpunch to the obvious favorite, #7 Cloe, scratched due to unsoundness according to the vet, but my inclination to be wary of the favorite proved true. The angle turned out to be the other speed with #9 In Our Time for Micah Husbands and Saffie Joseph Jr., who outbroke favored #4 Ag Bullet and put her in an uncomfortable spot off the lead while Husbands hit a rhythm to swell and bound home. I feel foolish to have not considered what kind of pacemaker could plant ahead of Ag Bullet, but don’t feel too bad missing the 5-1 number on the win side. Horizontally speaking, though, I wish I didn’t drop the ball.

Race 8 – Another runner-up on one of my outsider tries in #10 Kurita’s Folly, who put in a nice but belated run off good fractions. However the winner led every step in #1 Jas, who I should’ve given a bit more of a chance to be forward because of the rail draw and with this being the second start of his career. He also switched off a yielding course to a firm course, so plenty of dimensions were present for this one to step forward the way he did at a 10-1 number. The note I take away from this race is to not forget some of the handicapping basics just because this is a track of a weird configuration; i.e. certain principles like riding out from a rail draw early for position remain advantageous and can 1) convert over this track and 2) galvanize inexperienced types who maybe haven’t flaunted early speed from limited runs.

Oh, and the other long-price hope, #6 Kilbarry, finished dead last. Never involved. So much for blinkers. Hopefully the connections enjoyed a beautiful afternoon, at least.

SUNDAY, AUG. 29 SPOTS

Race 1 | $100,000 Maiden, for 2YO Fillies/Auction Maidens | 1 Mile (Turf)

A possible slam dunk to open the (possibly chalky?) Sunday card given how many cheaper class horses encompass this field of 2 year olds. Brad Cox deservingly has the morning line favorite in #8 Capodost, who definitely is in a prime spot to flex whatever class edge she seemingly has on a bunch exiting maiden claimers. She broke with some speed when brushing the gate on debut in that dirt sprint at Saratoga but showed plenty of greenness in the face of kickback and even when trying to kick for home, jerking across lanes but remaining engaged to grind a fourth-place finish.

I’m not super excited to be siding with the obvious, but I do recognize this could be a spot to get creative since this field is so thinly top heavy. If Capodost is in underlay territory (which I would pin under 2-1, 5/2 odds), we have a few horses in this race that could factor if we offer massive mulligans. Luan Machado sides with a Ben Colebrook filly in #3 Fifth Peg, who began a menacing move in the last turn of her route debut (taken off the grass) before just shutting off for whatever reason. Cristian Torres picks up a ride from Machado on #5 Hips of a Lady, who stretches out from an even run on debut where Machado had to keep pumping her while she edged by tired ones. The addition of blinkers on this Rodolphe Brisset trainee suggests to me there’s a chance she was just unresponsive from focus on that run, so this could be a spot for her to reverse form. But both Fifth Peg and Hips of a Lady, as forgiving as I am in interpreting their debut runs, could also just be too slow to win this race, so demand large odds of around 20-1 or better.

In the event of scratches, I would become excited about the first AE for Vicky Oliver, #13 Great Grenzen. This filly exits that same blowout maiden optional claimer at Ellis (that Hips of a Lady comes from), and she similarly showed greenness in her debut run but had decent fight as the best of the rest from a pair that ran away from the group by around eight lengths. The stretch out and surface change, even though statistically not significant for Oliver runners, creates intrigue for me on this runner specifically especially if Luis Saez does get the call to ride, since he’s got aggressive hands that could pair well with a filly that has a sense of what she’s doing but could use a stiffer pump of the reins.

Deserving Favorite: #8 Capodost (7/2 ML)
Live Price if Drawn in: #13 Great Grenzen (10-1 ML)
Handicapping Stretches for Prices: #3 Fifth Peg (12-1 ML), #5 Hips of a Lady (20-1 ML)

Race 4 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YO Fillies | 1 Mile (Turf)

Go ahead, tell me you handicapped this race, this race filled with first-time starters going a route. You ran your algorithms? You drafted up your TimeForm Pace Projectors? Wow, incredible. I’m sure it’s all correct.

Me? I did what you’re supposed to do in a race like this – I spun a wheel. And wouldn’t you know it, the wheel told me #7 New Purpose wins this race. I think I’ll trust the circumstances of chance that led me to a Flavien Prat-Brad Cox filly from Godolphin in this race, which you probably couldn’t handicap breaking through in a spot like this. No way.

Roulette Says: #7 New Purpose (3-1 ML)

–$3 Late Pick 3–

Race 9 | $500,000 Tapit Stakes, for 3YO & Up | 1-1/16 Miles (Turf)

In my lazy handicapping of this race at first, I was spinning my head trying to find anyone besides the morning-line chalk in #6 Lambeth, who has run great figures and shows good late speed while also having the rider of the year Jose Ortiz in the saddle for another hot trainer in Joe Sharp. But the more I thought about it, the more I felt disgusted in succumbing to the most obvious celestial alignment of chalk to hit a past performance page, plus this horse risks landing too far off the speed like in his last Kentucky Downs run in a handicap on a good mark, so I realized this is a great race to price shop for the $3 Late Pick 3.

I have three stabs and one question mark for this kickoff leg, which I’ll follow with two singles because I’m so smart and sharp and handsome and funny. I’ll start with the question mark, being #2 Native Runner. I have him as a question mark because do I really want to hop on the train of a horse that enters from a good run at 78-1 odds in a race where he will likely be a fifth of that? The only case that makes me more comfortable (besides Torres giving him a great ride) is that he’s improved in two starts for trainer Rusty Arnold after showing similar ability when with Kenny McPeek. So that last run at Ellis may not be a fluke and simply down to the horse getting forgotten. This all makes him a “B” for me.

On the “A” side, I have #4 Clever Mischief, #5 Baby Max and #11 Abrumar. Clever Mischief will have to prove he doesn’t run a few points lower in a spot without Lasix, but his run in the Schuster under Burgos is a total toss-out race since he was wide that whole trip and kept fighting to the finish. Gaffalione, who has won several riding titles at Kentucky Downs, has shown he knows how to ride this guy in non-stakes spots but he may have found the right bunch to work the right trip and get his head down. Baby Max knifed through horses to nearly win the Schuster last time and similarly could work the right trip for a potent combo of Beschizza-Danner and Abrumar is another with the running profile to land into the most productive spot of this route, plus Abrumar ran great in the Nashville Derby last year but likely was an even fourth because he couldn’t take the extra quarter of a mile that he doesn’t have to run here (also worth noting jockey Micah Husbands already won with a beautiful ride for Saffie Joseph Jr. on opening day to trounce big favorite Ag Bullet). So I’m hoping one of those three lands in the striking flight, or that my sense of hesitation on Native Runner turns out to be unnecessary worry.

Pick 3 “A”s: #4 Clever Mischief (10-1 ML), #5 Baby Max (12-1 ML), #11 Abrumar (12-1 ML)
Pick 3 “B”: #2 Native Runner (12-1 ML)

Race 10 | $750,000 Untapable Stakes, for 2YO Fillies | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

I just noticed the Tapit Stakes is followed by the Untapable Stakes. Imagine if the race after the Kentucky Derby was the Kennotucky Derby? Anyway.

I’m going to trust my eyes on #2 Seneca Park here. Her debut win at Ellis Park was stellar, though I do recognize the turf course at Ellis can sometimes produce faster times relative to other courses. Nonetheless, she strode away so comfortably that she probably could offer more, making that a perfect priming effort for this big pot. Plus we hopefully get a bit more value on her in this spot since Wesley Ward opted to race Waggley, the morning line favorite, in this race after scratching from a cross-entry in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint on opening day.

Single: #2 Seneca Park (9/2 ML)

Race 11 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YOs | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Because this race is stacked with first-time starters who do not appear much different from one another, I am stuck defaulting in my handicapping to #7 Beach Sandals as a single in the Late Pick 3. He’s making his fourth start on an improving trajectory and also makes his first start as a gelding while working great in the mornings leading to this race. His experience in a race lacking any will unfortunately tank his price, but the only other thing to do would be to go with God on a random firster, and that’s not handicapping, is it? The logical firsters include the morning-line chalk #8 Roosevelt for Brad Cox as well as Cox’s other runner #4 Job (imagine going with God after what he did to Job), though the colt for Florent Geroux has a makeup seemingly built more for routes than a sprint and that can be said about other firsters like #5 Candy Freak and #6 Jaded to just make this sprint tougher to figure out. Wesley Ward does send a possibly nice one in #9 Arsenal Star, but already I’ve killed any edge taking a blank on these would offer because they come from connections that get bet and inside of a wager that shouldn’t have that much spreading. So this truly is a spot where the handicapping is right on Beach Sandals and we don’t expend too much equity on the sequence and live to fight another day, win or lose.

Single: #7 Beach Sandals (9/2 ML)

$3 Late Pick 3 Plays

A’s: 4,5,11 / 2 / 7 = $9.00
B’s: 2 / 2 / 7 = $3.00
A’s & B’s (if you’re rich): 2,4,5,11 / 2 / 7 = $12.00

Best of luck however you choose to approach the races for day two of the meet! It does have a good chance to be chalky just based on how the races looked to me this far out, but as we all know there’s always a surprise or two waiting in the wings. And good luck to those of you playing in the $400 King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge opener!