Let’s try this again! Friday’s card was canceled due to air quality issues, but was moved in its entirety to Wednesday July 22nd. Unfortunately, the weather has been wet here in central Virginia so the card has become somewhat less interesting due to the surface changes.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-7-8-1
- Race 2: 1-5-7-2
- Race 3: 2-6-5-3 (Dirt)
- Race 4: 4-1-3-7
- Race 5: 1-6-8-5 (Dirt)
- Race 6: 6-11-1-7 (Dirt)
- Race 7: 5-9-2-6 (Dirt)
- Race 8: 10-9-5-8 (Dirt)
Colonial Downs Race 4: Sheilahs Warcloud (#4) at 2-1 or higher
My spot plays for this card begin with the race that kicks off that pick five carryover mentioned above. Many horseplayers will be singling White Rocks (#1) who certainly is the class of this field on paper, but has some questions to ask regarding her current form. Her big wins last year came from being able to wheel and deal on the front end and she should be the main speed in here, but I’m just worried the lack of early foot she’s shown in her two dirt starts to date which happen to be her last two efforts. Delray (#5) is the logical alternative, but she’ll have to navigate this elongated one-turn distance and I’m not keen on Jamie Ness runners at Colonial in general. Kinzie Queen (#7) has back races that should be respected, but will need to rebound second off the layoff. Navani (#3) is more of an option to fill out the verticals rather to win the race, but would be a way to really spice up this pick five payoff. However, my top selection is Sheilahs Warcloud (#4) as she returns to Colonial for the first time since winning a $150k event last spring. She’s always seemed to show up with her best races at this track as this is also where she broke her maiden at first asking. Despite a stumble at the break last time, she still ran on to get second and I view her as the most likely winner if the favorite doesn’t show up with her best.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Keen Talent (#6) at 9-2 or higher
This race held together the best of the off-the-turf events with a field of eight still signed on. Flamenco Star (#7) is dangerous to wire another field right back as he did breaking his maiden, but that was over the grass and now he’ll be getting on dirt for the first time. Celtic Prince (#1) is a very logical favorite in this spot as he broke his maiden on the dirt and should have the tactical speed to stay close. Originally I made Lomax (#11) my top pick, but am not as fond of his chances with the race moved to dirt. However, if the two favorites hook up I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jevian Toledo allow this horse to drop back to last and make one run down the lengthy Colonial stretch. He’s shown in his form that when at the right class level, he can unleash a nice kick down the lane and being by Curlin he could handle the surface. My top pick has become Keen Talent (#6) as he’s the one in the field to be proven as a closer on dirt. I liked what I saw when he handled that maiden field at Charles Town and I just didn’t think he got the setup needed when challenging winners at Laurel. This is a potent jockey/trainer combination, but let’s see if they can transfer those winning ways to this circuit.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Muskoka Katt (#10) at 1-1 or higher
Muskoka Katt (#10) looks to have this field over a barrel as the surface switch to dirt favors her more than anyone given she nearly broke her maiden at Churchill last time going a similar elongated one-turn distance. She’s also well drawn on the outside so jockey Daniel Centeno will be provided with plenty of options. I don’t think ML fav Little Georgie (#5) will appreciate the dirt and can foresee her taking some undeserved play based on her turf form. If looking for a cold exacta partner with my top pick, I’d go with Anesty (#9) who still might have some upside after only two starts. Her only prior start on dirt was her debut and I’m willing to give her a pass. She ran better last time and if the improvement came from experience rather than the switch to turf, she can compete here.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/17)
All
Top Picks: 35-11-7-10 (31%, $2.15); Featured Horses: 11-3-1-3 (27%, $3.65)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 26-9-3-8 (35%, $2.67); Featured Horses: 11-3-1-3 (27%, $3.65)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 63%; B’s: 20%; C’s: 11%; X’s: 6%
