Our full week coverage of this final stretch of the Colonial Summer meet continues with these spot plays and full-card picks for the Friday card. This will all culminate with the big Labor Day stakes extravaganza that serves as the send-off for 2026 racing at the track. I’ve already participated in a video preview of those races over on the In the Money Media Youtube channel alongside PTF & Will Humphrey. Be sure to check that out ahead of Monday’s card.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 6-2-4-3
- Race 2: 7-3-2-1
- Race 3: 4-7-2-1
- Race 4: 9-3-1-8
- Race 5: 4-1-2-6
- Race 6: 5-3-10-9
- Race 7: 1-10-2-11
- Race 8: 10-6-5-12
Colonial Downs Race 2: Strike Point (#7) at 2-1 or higher
A fun little open maiden special weight for juveniles goes early on this Friday card and with this race loaded with firsters from prominent barns, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a subset of these go on to pretty big things later in their careers. Only Bombay (#6) has started thus far and his last effort left something to be desired which is why I looked to the new faces. Tizoc (#1) and Professor Green (#2) figure to take action, but while I respect any Not This Time progeny Tizoc goes out for Fausto Gutierrez who is just 2/29 with FTS and 0/12 with juveniles in the last year. The latter goes out for an ownership group that tends to have their top juveniles either on the Kentucky or New York circuits, so I’ll let this LA-Bred Nyquist colt beat me. Coast Highway (#3) was worth a look as is anything the Graham Motion barns sends to Colonial, but I wasn’t enthralled with this damside pedigree. I landed on Strike Point (#7) as the top pick in this spot. This Godolphin homebred is by the aforementioned Not This Time out of the G2 winner Lady Montdore who has proven productive as a broodmare foaling stakes winner Montador. While it’s possible this chestnut colt will want more ground than the 5.5f, it appears he’s been getting cranked up at Delaware with his quickest breeze yet coming last week.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Contra (#9) at 9-2 or higher
While the two favorites on the morning line certainly can win, I think they’ll both be underlays at their respective odds and am willing to give some other ideas since Horsing Around (#2) has to move away from the Saffie Joseph barn and Sin Boldly (#8) has to rebound off a poor performance. Awards Ceremony (#3) is stepping up in class, but could be super dangerous right back given the potential pace advantage she holds over the logicals. My only issue is that she was 10-1 against a weaker group last time and now might be less than half that price. I landed on Contra (#9) as the top pick in this spot in part because I’m a huge fan of the Sarah Nagle barn with her turf sprinters at Colonial. This Gun Runner mare has been steadily improving this summer and I believe that 4th place finish last time came against one of the toughest fields for this level during the meet. I think the slight cutback to 5.5f will help accentuate her late kick and I love seeing Karamanos aboard. I could even throw in a little of Precious Cat (#1) as she outdueled a shorter priced horse at Monmouth last time before getting run down late.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Profound Change (#5) at 4-1 or higher
Allowance races like these are a dying breed, but that’s exactly what we get here as these 3YO’s will compete for 90k in this 6f dirt sprint. Generally I’m not keen on taking super short prices on these young runners as they can change quickly, but there’s no doubt Bruno (#10) is the horse to beat. I just don’t think he should be even money so I’ll look elsewhere. Tocik Hall (#3) has plenty of speed and just missed at this level last time out at 12-1. My two concerns with him are the presence of State Conceal (#1) who has speed and is drawn inside and the fact I doubt the 3 will go off 8-1. I know he’s first time against winners and coming off a 6+ month layoff, but I have to give Profound Change (#5) a shot to just be better than this group at what could be a generous price. While I don’t think we’ll get the 15-1 he is on the morning line, I think an argument could be made he’s the second most likely winner given the way he was able to draw off against that MSW field back in January. It appears he’s been training forwardly in preparation for this return with three bullet works in the last month up at Fair Hill.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 9/1)
All
Top Picks: 139-31-23-28 (22%, $1.76); Featured Horses: 45-8-7-6 (19%, $1.97)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 104-21-13-24 (20%, $2.04); Featured Horses: 37-6-5-6 (18%, $2.17)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 52%; B’s: 32%; C’s: 13%; X’s: 4%
