A fun little all-turf twilight card is on tap for Friday afternoon. The 4:30pm post puts it smack-dab between Saratoga and Del Mar racing today. My spot plays are littered throughout the action so hopefully we can build the bankroll up for a big weekend of racing around the country.
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Selections
- Race 1: 7-1-10-2
- Race 2: 6-10-2-5
- Race 3: 7-3-8-1
- Race 4: 4-7-1-2
- Race 5: 8-7-6-4
- Race 6: 4-5-8-7
- Race 7: 3-7-6-9
- Race 8: 1-2-5-8
- Race 9: 4-8-5-3
Colonial Downs Race 1: Lady Ophelia (#7) at 3-1 or higher
The lid-lifter on this Friday card likely features a heavy favorite from the dangerous Brittany Russell barn with Independence Way (#1). This filly is starting to get the reputation as a money-burner with four off-the-board finishes at under 3-1 in six lifetime starts, but is well-drawn in here on the rail and meets a pretty soft group. Some may look to No Show (#10) as a possible alternative, but this Kelsey Danner trainee hasn’t looked comfortable to me in either of her two turf starts and might not possess much ability over this surface. Ultimately, I couldn’t stomach another short price on the favorite which is why I landed on Lady Ophelia (#7). I was dubious that this filly wanted turf, but proved to handle it just find in her last start at Laurel. I like that she has speed in a race where I could see others having an unwillingness to pass other horses. Madison Meyers is a trainer I respect and Ben Curtis has been riding spectacular at the meet thus far.
Colonial Downs Race 3: None the Wiser (#7) at 9-2 or higher
It’s a very competitive eight-pack lined up for this maiden claiming sprinting on the grass which leaves doubt as to how the public will ultimately bet this affair. The morning line has pegged Band Leader (#2) as the shortest price, but if that’s the case I’ll happily oppose. He’s run in some tougher spots, but now has to come off an eleven month layoff for a very low percentage barn. I like the two runners exiting the June 23rd race at Laurel. No Cents Non Cents (#3) makes a ton of sense for an ownership group in Eagle Point Farm that points their horses to this meet. He was a good second last time out in a race on par if not slightly above the one assembled today. However, I’m going with None the Wiser (#7) as the top selection hoping he can turn the tables on his more fancied rival. This gelding had a touch of trouble entering the far turn, but was still running on well in the lane to grab show honors. He goes out for a barn in Ferris Allen that’s not known for having them cranked up to win first out, so I imagine some improvement is on tap in his second career start. No one is more adept at riding this turf course than Horatio Karamanos, so I think this might be a formidable team.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Thy Name Is Woman (#3) at 9-2 or higher
Much of this field is back together after being entered two weeks ago in the July 12th card canceled due to weather. Similar when this race was drawn initially, Splash of Jack (#2) is a favorite I’m interested in opposing. She’s listed at 5-2 on the morning line after being sent off at 23-1 in her debut. That performance is looks better on paper than it was in actuality as she took advantage of a fast early pace to rally on through the lane. I also don’t need much of First to Arrive (#5) on my tickets as I’m not convinced the switch back to the grass is ultimately what she wants and is just 3-1 on the ML. Despite the long layoff, I think the horse to beat is Daisy My Name (#6). Contrary to the morning line favorite this filly took some money on debut and flaunted plenty of early speed. There’s enough there on pedigree to suggest the switch to grass won’t be an issue and she would be a very likely winner if the race was washed off to the main track. My top pick in this spot is Thy Name Is Woman (#3) as this filly goes out second-time for dangerous connections in Trombetta/R. Larry Johnson. Her debut effort seemed to be no more than a trial run as she was parked wide around the track much of the way. Astern is one of my favorite sires of turf sprinters and this is a positive move for the barn as Trombetta is 8/22 (36%, $3.04 ROI) with 2nd time starting 2YO’s in turf sprints. I’ll also nominate La Befena (#7) as part of my plays as she’s the interesting new face compared to the previous iteration of this race. Turf sprinters is the Nagle barn’s game and this filly has been knocking on the door.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 53-16-11-11 (30%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 15-4-2-5 (27%, $2.71)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 23-7-7-3 (30%, $3.05); Featured Horses: 8-2-2-3 (25%, $3.33)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 49%; B’s: 35%; C’s: 9%; X’s: 6%
