Colonial Downs racing is going to feel a little different this weekend as the usually turf-focused oval hosts a special dirt-only 3-day Spring meet highlighted by Saturday’s Virginia Derby and Virginia Oaks which are essentially “Win And You’re In” preps for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks. I’ll have more on those events in plenty of other spaces this week, but why don’t we get our feet wet with a couple appetizers of sorts as there’s racing at Colonial on Thursday and Friday.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-3-1-4
- Race 2: 2-5-1-3
- Race 3: 6-2-4-1
- Race 4: 1-4-7-2
- Race 5: 3-1-2-5
- Race 6: 5-1-4-7
- Race 7: 8-1-3-2
- Race 8: 5-9-1-2
Colonial Downs Race 2: The Feisty One (#2) at 4-1 or higher
With a litany of short fields on this card, I found it hard to find spots to get creative, but this second race is one where I think the favorites might be vulnerable. Golden Philly (#1) is the horse to beat dropping back down to the $20k level she’s won each of the last two times she’s tried. However, she’s really only won when allowed to get a relatively uncontested lead on the front end and the presence of Blessed Candy (#3) just to his outside ensures that won’t be the case. While Jamie Ness hits at a high percentage at many tracks, his barn is just 2/12 (17%, $0.85 ROI) on the dirt at Colonial. The logical beneficiary of a speed duel would be My Dear Antonia (#5) who should appreciate the turnback in distance to the 7f by which she scored her debut. I’m just hesitant to take a short price on a horse that has been noncompetitive at double-digit odds in each of her last four starts and broke her maiden on the lead. Therefore, I’ve landed on The Feisty One (#2) to spring the upset. This filly proved to be able to rally past horses winning her maiden two back despite a poor break and a wide trip. Although that was around two-turns, I don’t mind the cutback to 7f here with a more sprinty pedigree. While she wasn’t much of a threat in her last start against a weak field for this level, there should be plenty of pace in front of her to close into this time.
Colonial Downs Race 3: Who Says So (#6) at 6-1 or higher
The bulk of the wagering will likely go through Crab Daddy (#2) and Ballad of Warrior (#4) as the class of this field of VA-Restricted allowance horses. Both of these guys have tried multiple stakes fields, but I prefer Crab Daddy who has been competitive in the open company events. Unfortunately this field didn’t stay in tact and a couple of rank outsiders that could have livened the pace electing to scratch. This will make the job more difficult for my top pick Who Says So (#6) who will likely be last early, but maybe he’ll be brought into the race and have the best finishing punch in the lane. I liked what I saw from this gelding in his last start, overcoming a slow start to make an eye-catching move to get up and win. I realize that came against $45k MdClm company and he was 21-1 that day, but he figures to be a big price again in a race where the favorites don’t possess an overwhelming edge.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Gucci Vision (#5) at 8-5 or higher
VA-Restricted maidens compete for a hefty purse in the nightcap on Thursday and I really like the chances of Gucci Vision (#5) to close out this card a winner. Of those with experience, it’s clear he’s faced the toughest field most recently exiting an open maiden special weight at Laurel last month. He certainly ran like a horse that needed his debut, breaking slowly and falling well back. He finally seemed to begin to figure things out late in the stretch running on between horses to make up a ton of ground in the final sixteenth and despite finishing 6th, he easily galloped out past the winner. The Chuck Lawrence isn’t know for winning at first asking, but the horse showed him enough on debut to wait six weeks for this lucrative spot. Fellow second-time starters Zio Lino (#1) and Enduring Gold (#9) are the other logical contenders, but worth noting both we’re entered for a tag on debut. While the former has dangerous early speed that could be advantageous in this 6f dash, I slightly prefer Enduring Gold of the two as Trombetta’s barn is another that improves young horses race-over-race.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 246-74-47-30 (30%, $1.95); Featured Horses: 73-18-10-10 (25%, $2.24)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 131-32-23-14 (24%, $2.25); Featured Horses: 48-11-6-7 (23%, $2.62)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%
