Back in action with the “sandwich” racing day of this special three-day spring meet. The VA-Bred program is center-stage for the racing Friday afternoon featuring a pretty exciting matchup late in the card as G1 Winner Book’em Danno returns to begin his 4YO campaign. He looks to be awfully tough in that spot, but I’ve found a couple other places we can get creative with price horses.
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-1-3-5
- Race 2: 6-3-4-5
- Race 3: 5-4-3-1
- Race 4: 8-5-3-1
- Race 5: 3-4-1-5
- Race 6: 9-10-4-6
- Race 7: 6-2-1
- Race 8: 10-3-1-6
Colonial Downs Race 1: Mischief Exposed (#2) at 4-1 or higher
I’m hoping it’s the classic case of “short field, long price” in the lid-lifter Friday at Colonial. Sure, Knockanara (#3) and El Junior (#1) are likely winners in this spot, but I’m never fond of taking short prices on horses missing the board in each of their last three starts. Rather, I’ll opt for the speed in this race and hope that passing is at a premium in this VA-Restricted maiden claiming event. There’s plenty of drawbacks with the form of Mischief Exposed (#2), most notably the 0-10 record and non-competitive finishes in each of his last four starts. However, those were either route races or sprints on turf/synthetic. He finally returns to a dirt sprint where his two best bits of form are and he’s likely to have it easy on the front end.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Drifting (#8) at 6-1 or higher
The morning line has pegged Moon Rox (#3) as the top choice in this race, but I have reservations that this WV-Bred will be able to navigate the extra furlong against this field. In my view, the horse to beat is Clare Court (#2) who possesses plenty of speed and gets a big drop in class out of the NYRA circuit. However, I just can’t take her on top after giving up the leas in her last start late in the stretch. I’ve opted for a bit of a longshot in this spot hoping to get Drifting (#8) home at a big number. This filly showed good speed on debut despite not taking a nickel of money before tiring late in the stretch. Last time out it was a nightmarish journey, breaking a touch slow then being pinched back repeatedly down the backstretch. She actually did well to get into contention at the top of the lane before the trouble early caught up to her late. Now she’s drawn well to the outside and can sit a good stalking trip outside the other speed.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Sheilahs Warcloud (#9) at 9-2 or higher
My play of the day comes in the Stellar Wind Overnight Handicap which features the most a welcome full and competitive field. I have no arguments against Binnie (#10) as the horse to beat in this spot going out for the Russells while bringing in a 4-for-5 career record. She’s shown the ability to go gate-to-wire and also sit-and-pounce which should provide Sheldon plenty of options on how to play it after the break. She’s dangerous to win right back, but just won’t offer any semblance of value. I’m somewhat against her principal rival Mary Q (#6). While she beat a large field two back, she was a no-show at Laurel last time when leaving the friendly confines of PA albeit in a tougher spot. My top pick is Sheliahs Warcloud (#9) who returns to the scene of her smashing debut victory almost two years ago. Since then, she’d proven to be the model of consistency never missing the board until her most recent start which preceded the layoff. I’m glad the connections gave her some time off and now bring her back in a reasonable spot. She was routinely under 3-1 in tougher stakes events last season and now should be twice that price in an easier spot. If she’s the same horse or perhaps even more mature as a 4YO, she can win this at a square number. There should be plenty of speed to set up her potent late kick with Beachfront Breeze (#1) and Snappin Buttons (#4) forced to send from the inside.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 246-74-47-30 (30%, $1.95); Featured Horses: 73-18-10-10 (25%, $2.24)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 131-32-23-14 (24%, $2.25); Featured Horses: 48-11-6-7 (23%, $2.62)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%
