Colonial Downs is back in action for an extended meet this summer racing Wednesday-Saturday all the way through September 13th. I’m pleased to be back handicapping the action for In The Money Media once again and will try to highlight my home track in its best form. I’ll be providing full card picks and spot play analysis for 24 of the best racing cards that Colonial offers this year which will include:
- All 10 Saturdays which each have at least two stakes races scheduled
- All 10 Friday cards which have a first post of 4PM to nestle nicely between Saratoga and Del Mar
- Special coverage of all four cards during opening week
- Special coverage of the Thursday 8/7 of Arlington Million Week to drum up excitement for the biggest card of the year on 8/9
- Special coverage of Thursday 8/21 which is a Claiming Crown Preview day
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Selections
- Race 1: 3-10-6-4
- Race 2: 1-2-5-3
- Race 3: 11-4-2-8
- Race 4:11-2-1-7
- Race 5: 2-10-8-3
- Race 6: 9-6-10-4
- Race 7: 6-8-2-9
- Race 8: 1-7-4-10
Colonial Downs Race 2: Bebedouro (#1) at 5-2 or higher
The morning line favorite in this spot is Devil’s Cay (#6) and I’m willing to take a shot against him given the barn he’s coming from. Jamie Ness has had plenty of success at mid-Atlantic tracks over the last few years, but Colonial is not one of them posting a record of 4/38 (11%, $0.57 ROI) the last five years and those numbers are even worse on the dirt (2/21, 10%, $0.49 ROI). Of the shorter prices on the morning line I prefer Miami Frank (#3) who might’ve been against the track last time at Gulfstream. I like Bebedouro (#1) in this spot hoping he can get a similar trip to the one he parlayed into a dominant win at the $30k claiming level at Churchill last time. I don’t think this starter allowance field is much tougher than his last triumph and the Tomlinson barn has had plenty of success at Colonial in recent memory posting a record of 7/24 (29%, $2.99 ROI) with dirt runners over this strip in the last five years. On deeper tickets I could see including potential lone speed Chado (#2) and the in-form Tiny Lake (#5) in an effort to play against those high-percentage barns that have yet to translate that success to Colonial.
Colonial Downs Race 5: Wunderkind (#2) at 9-1 or higher
There is an intriguing first-time starters in this VA-Restricted maiden special weight that kicks off the late pick 5 so it’ll be worth watching the board to see who is live. Got a Complex (#1) is a Complexity filly debuting for the Drury barn and sports some quick works at Churchill. However, it’s normally tough to win these races out the box so I’ve opted for some runners with experience. Sporting Lady (#10) is way the horse to beat as she went off 9-5 debuting in a stakes race over this course last summer. She’s followed that up with three subsequent runner-up finishes that all would make her tough in here, I just don’t want to swallow a short price on a filly that might be proving to be a bit of a bridesmaid. Both Let Thesunshine In (#3) and Thousand Story’s (#8) are viable alternatives with experience, but I went for the more unexposed runner Wunderkind (#2) as my top pick in this spot hoping she’s the best price of the bunch. This Tiz the Law filly flashed speed on debut before tiring badly signaling she might’ve needed this start. All four runners who have exited that Laurel maiden race improved their Beyer figures substantially meaning it could be turning into a key race. This barn has been hot lately hitting with 6/16 starters (38%, $4.07 ROI) including upsetting the Bashford Manor with Romeo. I’m hoping she can speed-pop this field in a race where the turn comes up pretty quickly on those drawn outside.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Bernin Hot (#6) at 5-2 or higher
While Pirate (#2) looks tough on paper, I mentioned earlier I’m planning on starting the meet out playing against Jamie Ness until that barn proves to have sustained success at Colonial. I like Bernin Hot (#6) quite a bit in this spot. Although it might appear this is a step up in class, I’m not too sure the $50k claiming fields at Churchill are much softer than an N2X here. He’s drawn outside all the other speed and when the Rohan Crichton barn gets a new addition to his barn winning, it’s best to hop on board. He has a 7/31 (23%, $2.44 ROI) with runners 2nd off the claim who won last out and the barn comes into the meet on a tear winning 6/17 (35%, $3.88) in the last month. Awesome Ruta (#8) would be the longer price I want to get in the number while trying to fade the Ness charge. He had no chance in the Salvatore Mile last time, but his races three and four back make him a player here including a nose defeat in a 100k race over this course and distance last summer.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Spring Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 25-8-6-2 (32%, $2.84); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.89)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 14-3-3-1 (21%, $3.66); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-1 (14%, $2.40)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 60%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 0%
