Another summer season kicks off at Colonial Downs on Thursday and this year’s meet is bigger than ever. As more and more historical racing machines (think slots) perpetuate the commonwealth of Virginia, that in turn means more racing days are required to be run at Colonial as part of the agreement CDI has in place with VA horsemen. Starting June 25th, Colonial will have 45 live racing days this summer, racing every Thursday thru Sunday culminating on Labor Day weekend. Highlights of the meet will include the August 1st card featuring the G1-Arlington Million and two other graded stakes on the turf as well as closing day featuring the Old Dominion Derby. While the meet is expanded, coverage in this space will be selective, focusing on the 20 most influential racing dates this summer.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-2-3-4
- Race 2: 3-1-2-5
- Race 3: 1-3-2-5
- Race 4: 7-8-5-6
- Race 5: 5-9-7-11
- Race 6: 2-9-4-6
- Race 7: 1-2-8-4
- Race 8: 10-6-7-1
Colonial Downs Race 3: Hill Country (#1) at 6-1 or higher
The first of my spot plays corresponds with the meet’s first turf race, a maiden special weight going two turns on the expansive Colonial grass. My main opinion in this spot is to play against Objection (#4) who likely takes money as a debut runner from the Brittany Russell barn. However going long on turf midway through his 3YO season is not what I envision Mike Repole had in mind when plotting out this son of Curlin’s campaign. Jorge Duarte’s pair of Boundless Skies (#2) and Target Market (#7) look formidable and while I prefer the former, I actually see No Temperance (#3) as the horse to beat in this spot. This will be his stateside debut for the Mark Casse barn and should sit a nice trip. My top pick is actually the co-longest shot on the morning line in Hill Country (#1). While this colt has competed exclusively in maiden claiming company to-date, that level at Churchill is roughly comparable to what he faces today. I saw some subtle improvement in his turf debut last time when splitting the field at 58-1 despite a wide journey. Trainer Keith Desormeaux has brought some live ones to Colonial in the past including winning the G2-Secretariat last year.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Raise Cain (#2) at 9-2 or higher
The final dirt race of the day is arguably the most interesting race on the card as there’s some former stakes horses lined up to contest this N2X optional claimer. Chief among them is Caldera (#6) who was 5-1 in the 2025 LA Derby and will likely go off the favorite here second-time out in the Saffie Joseph barn. He was dominant in his first start for that trainer, easily wiring an N1X at Gulfstream Park, but he’s likely to face pace pressure this time from Who’s the King (#1) and will have to take his form out of the friendly confines of the barn’s home base. A couple longshots worth a look would be Lonesome Boy (#4) who could get the right stalking trip behind the speed and Break Out (#9) who gets a class test today, but has been in razor sharp form for the underrated Michael Campbell barn. However, my top pick is Raise Cain (#2) who might prove too good for these at a generous number. Even going back to his time in the Ben Colebrook barn, I’ve always thought of this horse as best at elongated one-turn distances which aligns with the fact his two biggest wins came in the G3-Gotham and Perryville Stakes. He tailed off a bit at the end of his time with his previous trainer, but I think Brittany Russell has got him back going the right way. He won at this level in his debut for the barn at the end of last year and while he was third in a four-horse field over the course and distance back in March, the two that beat him would be 1-9 in this spot. I’m willing to forgive the last effort as it came over two turns and am just hoping the 50k tag he’s dangled for isn’t a bad sign.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Doctor Jeff (#1) at 7-1 or higher
The penultimate race on the opening day card is an incredible competitive N2X optional claimer for turf sprinters. Xy Speed (#5) is listed as the morning line favorite for the Michael Lerner barn, but I wouldn’t want a short price on anyone in this spot. Of the logicals, Cactus (#2) and Louie the Sun King (#8) make the most sense to me. The former has a versatile running style to adapt to different pace scenarios and looked good winning off the bench last out. The latter hasn’t had his picture taken in over a year, but has been facing tougher fields on both the synth and turf down at Gulfstream. I could even make a cogent case for Biz Biz Buzz (#4) who goes out for the dangerous Jose D’Angelo barn and has plenty of back-class. However, my top pick is Doctor Jeff (#1) who was last seen running over this course and distance a couple times last summer. I find it interesting they bring him back in this spot on opening day as if they’ve been targeting this return all along. He was under 4-1 at a race in Saratoga last summer and certainly has the talent to compete in this spot and I like that the barn is 2/3 when reaching out to Ruiz to ride.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 208-57-45-33 (27%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 65-11-13-17 (17%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 127-27-28-19 (19%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 51-9-10-12 (18%, $2.12)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
