Well, so much for finding a bias. I think rain might have affected the surface on Monday, and now that it’s dry, we’re back to a track with no bias. Speed on the inside could have been caused by the track drying slower by the rail, and that same speed wearing competitors out over long distances. Or someone read my article and told the tractors to work the track up differently. Who knows? My selections fared poorly yesterday, so let’s bounce back with a competitive Wednesday card sporting some deep fields.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
While his last race came on a biased track, I keep coming back to Pancho Slips Away (#2) as a likely competitor due to the speed of his last race. Shortening up the extra half-furlong should suit this Kevin Rice trainee nicely. Silver Ore (#6) drops in class and has the fastest last out Beyer of any horse in the field, so hopefully he finds the lighter claiming tag to his liking. To slot in third, I’ll go with Party At The Beach (#4), a classy and consistent horse who comes from the same race as Silver Ore. The #6 beat him last time out by a neck, and I expect he’ll be on the short end of the stick yet again
Race 1 selections:2-6-4
RACE 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $10,000 Post Time: 3:57
A state-bred restricted claiming race brings us deeper into the card, the only other field with six horses entered. If Gaddiel Martinez can get I’m Heading East (#3) to run back to her last race, she should be a contender against a field full of horses she beat in her last start. I’ve spent the last week ignoring Scott Spieth’s mounts, but I simply cannot overlook him after he scuffed up a few of my selections yesterday. His ride Louise Brooks (#4) looks in declining form, but has historically turned a faster Beyer in her third start off the layoff. The added distance should help the closing style she showcased in her last start. Xerces (#6) is a hard horse to ignore after turning a career high BSF last out, but I think the pace will come apart and she’ll be left wanting in this class jump.
Race 2 selections: 3-4-6
RACE 3 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 4:24
This is a tough race to sort out on paper, so I’m going to a longshot with 8-1 Patriot Bluechip (#5). John Guciardo has a 17% record with horses coming onto synth for the first time from dirt, and this horse has turned two 47 second workouts over 4 furlongs on the tapeta. The consistency of Ready Set Cairo (#3) shines with three straight Beyers of 52 to 54, and in this field I’ll take that consistency to the window. Hit That Review (#1) is coming down in class with impressive speed figures, but enters a low percentage barn that doesn’t have a good track record of getting claims turned around immediately, so I’ll slot this one for show.
Race 3 selections:5-3-1
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 4:51
The price won’t be good but the ceiling is highest for Big Run (#6) to graduate in this field. If he doesn’t take a drastic step backwards he’ll be the horse to beat. If Ready Set Cairo in the last race runs well, circle this horse as the strength of the field because #6 ran second to Cairo last out. Body By Carvel (#1) drops in from Tampa Bay Downs and has turned steady work times over the all-weather. He also comes out of the high percentage Ron Potts barn, so he’ll take some money on the board, not to mention his 35% success rate turning turf runners onto the synth. Mr. Impatient (#7) wants more ground, but should be tough enough to run in the money. He would be an interesting bet next time he extends in distance.
Race 4 selections:6-1-7
RACE 5 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 5:18
Air One (#8) would prefer to be back on turf but showed speed on synth over a biased track last time out. If she can harness that performance again, she’ll be tough to beat. Beware the shipper Linda Rice and her horse Ohoopee (#5). Linda doesn’t always send her runners to synth, but when she does, she’s 33% on the tapeta. She’s one of the top trainers on the East Coast for a reason, and is excellent at finding spots for her runners to romp a field. For third, I slot in New Issue (#1), training for Ron Potts and getting top rider Antonio Gallardo in the irons, who’s as hot as he’s ever been while pulling away in the jockey standings.
Race 5 selections: 8-5-1
RACE 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, Starter Optional Claiming $13,500 Post Time: 5:45
The first route on the card also proves to be very deep in competition. I gotta go with the surest thing, that Starship Empire (#9) will hit the board like he has in 21 of his 23 starts at this distance. Gallardo in the irons only increases his chances here. Burnin Turf (#2) looks like an attractive bet for the same reason, hitting the board 6 of 7 starts at distance with five wins. The last time the tag was this high, though, he didn’t fare so well. Playing pedigrees gets pretty hard when most of the horses are 6 years and older, but I’ll use up my third selection to take Maynard (#6) on a hunch that he runs a better form than what he showed previously. Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and by a Candy Ride mare, this horse should have some stamina left in the tank even at the ripe old age of 7. He hasn’t run a winning effort since January of last year and looks to be losing a step, but I’ll believe in him today.
Race 6 selections: 9-2-6
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $20,000 Post Time: 6:12
I’ll talk myself into taking a horse with Afleet Alex in the pedigree any day (as I’ve mentioned, my favorite horse of all time) and I do legitimately think that Calvary Kat (#8) can win in this field. While the horse that beat her last out did poorly in the Malvern Rose Stakes, #8 makes a sort of lateral move from a SOC $25,000 state-bred race to this SOC $20,000 open race. The extra half-furlong should help her come from off the pace well. Wherever We Are (#4) offers a bit more tapeta consistency, and just turned her fastest career Beyer in her last start, hopefully an indication of more to come from the 4-year-old by Win Win Win. I’m counting on the British horse Shin Jidai (GB) (#6) to complete my selections based on limited synthetic form, on which the horse is 3 for 3 of hitting the board.
Race 7 selections:8-4-6
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 6:39
Hot Gamer (#7) comes out of Steve Asmussen’s barn to Matthew Kintz. Her sire, Game Winner by Candy Ride (ARG), has a 20% win rate with progeny in synthetic sprints, a stat that bodes well for this horse who’s campaigned previously at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs. Burn It All (#3) comes out of Gulfstream Park and could get the class relief she desperately needs with the drop in claiming tag. Don’t Blame Court (#5) could flash some development from 2 to 3, and ran a steady race in her first start off the layoff.
Race 8 selections:7-3-5
Week 2 of Presque Isle handicapping rolls on, and as the summer heats up so will these selections (I hope). And in case you didn’t hear, next week is special with the Fourth Of July coming up. No racing Tuesday, but there will be special Thursday and Friday cards with noon post times! See you next week!
