Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 7/24/26 – By Eric Solomon

Racing is back at Monmouth this afternoon with a six race, Friday afternoon matinee card. Three of the six races are carded for the turf on what is projected to be a beautiful afternoon in Oceanport, New Jersey. Post time for the first race is 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will dash five furlongs on the turf in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race that starts the day. The rails for the three races carded for the turf today are all the way out at 36 feet. There are two short prices in this race and while both Ausplexity (#2) and April Spun (#4) make a lot of sense in this race. Neither of these fillies strike me as horses that really want to win a race. Both may have found the right group at this level of competition, but I see these two as backups. In spots like this where there are short priced runners that have solid figures for the field, but always seem to come up short, I prefer to lean to inexperience. I’ll use both Caitlin Said Run (#1) and Infamy (#8) on the A line in this spot. Caitlin Said Run was a horse that I liked in a two turn race at this level last weekend, but she was no match for Enchant, who romped at 2-5 that afternoon. She drew the rail and ran okay two back in a race at this level and condition where she didn’t have the cleanest beginning. Blinkers go on as she cuts back in distance here today. She only has 2 ½ lengths to make up on the short prices, so I can play her here at a significantly better price than both of them. Infamy  makes her first start for Jorge Delgado in this race. This barn is typically sharp with their debut runners. Maximus Mischief isn’t known for producing turf sprinters per se, but he is 2-19 with his runners that have debuted in turf sprint races. This is the first foal to make it to the track from a mare that ran well at Belterra in her first three starts, all of which came at this distance on the turf. 

Race 2:

Six runners will go  1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. Bonsai Warrior (#6) is the lone two-time winner here. That class dropper is the favorite on the morning line in this race, but this would be his third start in 12 days if he did run in this race and he’d be going two turns on the dirt for the first time. I’m not certain he’s running, but I’m avoiding him if he does. I think this race is all about Fratellone (#1), who is facing winners for the first time. He ran well in his first two starts at this meet back in May and has been on the sidelines since. While Final Joke (#3) beat him two months ago, that one has not fared well in his last two starts. Meanwhile, Avila has given his colt a little extra time, which is an angle that he thrives with. I like the tactical speed from the rail post and I think he can make it two straight wins here. Final Joke  is the backup for me. It wasn’t his day last time out, so I’m willing to look past that effort somewhat. Delgado gave this one a little extra time as well, likely trying to figure this one out after a pair of dull efforts off the claim. His first four starts showed a nice trajectory, so there are some things to like here. 

Race 3:

Beaten $5K claimers will go a mile on the dirt here. I think the key to how the race plays out depends on what happens in the early stages with Syntactic (#2) and Confabulation (#5). Confabulation is a typical “need the lead” kind of horse. He has never won a race where he was the leader at the first call. Meanwhile consistent early speed is only a recent tactical change for Syntactic. I don’t see Syntactic as a serious contender in this race, but if he continues to be forward, he has inside position on Confabulation and his presence could inhibit that one from getting a fairly easy lead in this race. I like Confabulation at this level, with Syntactic in the mix, I feel the need to be defensive. If for some reason that one defects, I’d make Confabulation the top pick. With the field as is, I think this becomes a perfect spot for the favorite, Street Glide (#4). With Paco Lopez opting to ride elsewhere during most weekends for the remainder of the summer, the talent in the jockey colony is much more spread out. Edwin Gonzalez has become a very good rider that is one of the best jockeys on the grounds when he is riding here. He’ll get the mount on this Jess’s Dream gelding. He’s been pace compromised in a few of his recent starts, but he was also facing a much stronger group last time when he finished third in a $5K starter allowance. He should get a sweet stalking trip, especially if the two runners above are both sent for the lead. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will dash five furlongs on the lawn in this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. The two shortest prices, Bella Bello Banker (#1) and Elsie’s Smile (#7), have multiple wins however, neither of them have a win in a turf sprint race. The other six runners qualified for this race under the N2L condition, however, none of them broke their maidens in a sprint on the grass either. At this distance, I think the speed of Mya Papaya (#4) means something. She battled for the lead while breaking from an outside post in a 5 ½ furlong sprint here when making her last start. She was the favorite in that spot before getting a little leg weary late. She covered a little extra coming out of the chute and was asked for her best a little earlier that maybe Luis Rivera would have liked to in order to save a little extra ground on the turn. She’s the clear speed in this race and I’m not sure there’s anyone that should really threaten her in the early stages. This feels like her race to lose. I think Bella Bello Banker (#1) is the most likely horse to run her down. She has two straight wins at two turns in her last two starts. She drops in class, which is a little concerning because she scratched out of a race where she was moving up in class a few weeks ago. Jose Morelos will be her third different rider trying to notch her third consecutive win. 

Race 5:

The featured race today is an optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance contest for state bred fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on the main track. I’m looking for a viable alternative to La Resolana (#2), who will be a heavy favorite in this spot. She is in search of a third straight win at this meet and her 4th win in her 5th start here at Monmouth. She was an easy winner in the slop two back and she handled the turf with relative ease when clearing the first level state bred allowance condition in her last start. She’s been too good to ignore, but if She’s a Bombshell (#7) is right, she could prove to be tough to run down. She has early speed, but she’s also going to have to contest with Red Head Italian (#5) and Starview Twinkle (#6) early on. She was entered in a claiming race with the waiver when making her first start in five months at the end of May. She has six career starts on a fast track and two of those races were daylight victories. I like the outside draw and at slightly longer odds, I’d be willing to wager that we’ll see an improved version of herself in this race.

Race 6:

We’ll end the day with a nine horse $16K-$14K N3L claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. It’s been a long time since Linarette (#2) has done the two turn thing, but when she did, she handled it fairly well. She makes her second start off the layoff and drops in class again. Michael Miceli does well with runners stretching out and he does better with horses 2nd off the layoff as opposed to their first time back. After winning the Haskell, Jorge Vargas is riding with supreme confidence right now and he’ll get the assignment again today. E; Ma’any (#5) cleared the N2L level in her last start, where she clearly took a step forward. When looking at her speed figure progressions, I believe that she’ll be able to replicate her last effort. If she does, she figures to be right in the mix with this group. Taco Cat Backwards (#1) makes her third start off the layoff. She ran at this level at Colonial in her last start where she had a pretty rough journey against a better bunch. While this is a lateral move on paper, it does feel like she’s getting more class relief for this race. Despite having some clunkers, she does have a handful of decent races lately. She’s one to think about as well in this race. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 52/195 (26.7%), $295.90 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet