Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, 10/23/26 – By Eric Solomon

It’s the penultimate day of racing for the Fall Meet at Keeneland, but as usual, they’ll be going out with a bang. The Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes and the Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes are on the docket today. There will be three more stakes tomorrow before racing shifts to Churchill Downs on Sunday, where they’ll host the first of two Stars of Tomorrow Cards for two year olds. Keeneland will be back in the picture for Friday and Saturday next week as the host of the 2026 Breeders’ Cup.  First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The final Friday card of the meet starts off with a $30K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt. I think Lasting Legacy (#7)  a ton of sense in this race. He was claimed at Churchill in May for $30K and he was moved to the Mid-Atlantic region where Lacey Gaudet took over as his trainer. He ran well twice there and now makes his third start off the layoff today. He met a fast horse in maiden special weight company at Delaware in his last start. They stopped the clock in 1:09:3 that day, which is a serious time for that oval, especially in the fall. Gaudet already has a winner at the meet and she turns to Jose Ortiz to ride in this gelding’s Keeneland debut. The backup for me is Why Not Fly (#1) for Michael Douaihy. This four year old gelding debuted last month in a $100K maiden claiming race at Churchill where he finished 7th in what was a reasonably fast race for that condition. The winner is a pretty fast horse and the runner-up came back to win here last week with $50K maiden claimers. The dam was a graded stakes winner on this course and she broke her maiden in a sprint here prior to that race. This one was  bred to be a good horse, but things clearly haven’t worked out as planned. I do think you could make a case that he will move up at this level though. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go seven furlongs in this $20K starter allowance race that will start the Early Pick-4 wager. I’m siding with Progeny (#6) here for Jason Cook. She has been sharp in her last two starts, including a runner-up finish at this level last month behind Talkin in Cursive. That one has had her number and she came back to score in a starter allowance race here last week. This mare has two strong efforts at this distance, including a nice win at Ellis two back in a $32K claiming race. Sweet Note (#9) draws the outside for this race and she’s making her first start after being claimed for $25K at Churchill last month. Donald Habeeb had her earlier in her career and found the Winner’s Circle twice before she was claimed away. She had a nice run over the winter at Delta, which included a win in a small stakes race there. She came back after a little rest and stayed in decent form at Saratoga over the summer. I think this is a reasonable spot for her local debut. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Sassy Princess (#8). Early speed is the name of her game, and that has been a tricky proposition at times during this Fall Meet. She was an impressive first level allowance winner here in the spring at this seven furlong trip. She has been a little flat when going six furlongs over her last few starts. She does seem to be at her best when going in longer one turn races like this one. 

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will travel one mile on the main track in this $50K maiden claiming race. This race drew a field of 12, which is unusual for a race at this distance here at Keeneland. The one mile starting point is past the finish line, leaving a short run into the first turn. This certainly complicates matters for horses with outside draws in this race, especially when everyone in this race with experience is trying two turns for the first time in the afternoon. Clever One (#7) is the pick for me in this race. She ran well in a sprint in her debut, but she struggled when going a one turn mile in her next start. There was about three months in between those starts and both races came in auction maiden special weight races. She finished 6th, about 11 lengths behind the winner. However, she was less than a length behind Revereign, who came back here to score at that level last week. That tells me that race had some quality. She likely needed that race and now gets to go two turns in her second try off the layoff. Jose Ortiz rode her on debut and he’s back in the saddle today after missing her last race. Devious Lady (#1) had every reason to improve after a res[ectable debut in August, but she struggled in her last race when facing $150K claimers at Churchill. I’ll chalk that race up to a bad day at the office. She broke well and chased in three path, while having horses stacked up to her inside and outside. Jaime Torres might have made a tactical error by allowing her to lose her spot and tucking in closer to the rail to try to save ground for the stretch run. She was making up ground on the horse in third, but the two leaders were slipping away from the pack after setting moderate fractions for the first quarter mile. She gets some more class relief and tries two turns for the first time while having the shortest run into the first turn. On deeper tickets, I’ll look at Newhope (#5) for Lindsay Schultz. Schultz has been having some success at Oaklawn and Monmouth ever since going out on her own a few years ago. She made headlines this summer by saddling Baby Vino to an upset victory in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes. She hasn’t had many horses running at this meet as she’s starting to prepare her contingent to travel to Hot Springs, Arkansas for the start of the Oaklawn meet next month. This modestly bred daughter of Plainsman showed some early interest before getting tired late in her debut at Churchill last month. The dam’s other two foals to race haven’t shown a lot on the track, and Plainsman is still looking for his first win as a sire. The winner of his debut race romped, but this one finished with some interest, despite struggling to switch leads. Abel Cedillo is back to ride, which I see as a good sign.

Race 4:

Eight runners are entered in an open $62,500 claiming race going about seven furlongs on the dirt. I’m against the favorite, Ghazaaly (#5) in this race. I don’t like him at one turn, coming off the layoff. However, his stablemate, Tarantino (#4) makes a lot more sense to me. He was a winner at the start of this meet, beating a decent group of $50K claimers when going seven furlongs. I think this is the right distance for him and the right level of competition. Ty;er Gaffalione is riding hard to earn another Keeneland riding title, so you know you’re getting his best effort with him in the saddle. Break Out (#8) feels like the main danger, shipping here after a pair of tries at Colonial going a one turn mile there. Going into that last race. He had scores in his three prior starts. He’s 6-18 in his career, and while he’s trying a new distance for the first time, I think he should be able to adapt. Skyro (#7)  is also worth considering in this spot. He’s making his first start since he was a voided $40K claim at Ellis this past summer. I’m willing to forgive that effort since he had other strong efforts on the dirt leading up to that last race. His wins three and four starts ago when going a one turn mile at Churchill were sharp. 

Race 5:

The Pick-6 begins this afternoon with a $50K starter allowance race restricted to horses that have not yet cleared the first level allowance condition and horses that broke their maiden in a maiden auction or maiden claiming race. Nine runners that met those conditions will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track here. Despite still being eligible for N2L claiming races, I like the turnaround that I’ve seen from Jets Rio (#1) since he was claimed by Ron Moquett toward the end of the Oaklawn Meet. He gave him about three months off before bringing him back to the races at Ellis. That time seemed to be beneficial as he ran a solid race in the slop that afternoon. Moquett brought him to the Spa and he moved him up in class where he finished third at long odds. He shipped to Churchill where he just missed in a race at this same condition. He draws the rail and he should sit a decent, ground saving trip. I think he can pull off the mild upset in this field, which did come up rather strong for this condition. Ghostwritten (#6) was claimed for $50K on the afternoon when he broke his maiden at Del Mar. Christopher Davis brought him to Kentucky where he faced a similar group in a seven furlong race. He ran well to be third that afternoon. He’s made five of his career starts on the dirt and all of them have been relatively solid. I’m expecting another strong effort from him this afternoon, on a day where he’s making his third start off a layoff. Vitruvian Man (#5) sniffed the Triple Crown Trail after finishing a distant third in the Santa Anita Derby. They kicked the tires on sending him to the Derby, but they opted for the Belmont instead, where was outclassed. He was well-beaten in a strong N1X allowance race at Del Mar and his last two races have come on the turf. He’s back on the dirt and dropping in class, while also running in a protected spot. His line win came o this course a little more than one year ago. 

Race 6: 

Keeneland doesn’t card many 5 ½ furlong races on the dirt, so it’s interesting to see a race for year old maiden special weight types offered at this distance today. Since they’re limiting the number of turf races with the Breeders’ Cup coming up next week, this could be a race that is meant to replace a turf sprint for two year old maidens. Bob Baffert also likes debiting horses at this distance (33% winning percentage with two years debuting at 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt), especially when considering that he trains his horses for speed. It’s interesting to see him show up with a firster in here. He’ll saddle Justico (#3) for Juddmonte after a series of strong works in Southern California and Churchill Downs. We all know that Baffert has a ridiculous record with two year old first time starters over the last several years. Part of that is due to the short fields in Southern California and part of that is due to the high quality stock that he continues to get. However, he knows how to get a horse ready to fire a big effort on debut. He saddled Yacht Master to a win at this distance at Churchill Downs last month. While he didn’t make the lead, he was active early and he had the foundation from his workouts to wear down his opponents in that race. No one else in this field has a worktab as impressive as he does. I’m not willing to take a small price on this one in such a large field, but I feel Nick Tammaro’s 7-2 morning line is right where I’d want him to be, assuming that we’re working with a 12 horse field. While Baffert’s horses take money, his Kentucky runners at Churchill and Keeneland have not necessarily been bet like they hammer his horses on the West Coast, so I’ll hold out hope that we’ll get close to that number. Joe Sharp has two runners in this field. While his first time starter, Epic Journey (#7) will get Jose Ortiz to ride, I’d prefer to watch that one. Instead, I’ll give some cover to his second time starter, Union Star (#11). He debuted in a 6 ½ furlong race at Churchill last month where he was on the front end. He did things nicely before fading badly in the final furlong. He cuts back in distance and is facing a lot of inexperienced runners. He’s worked three times since that race and he’s getting in light with the 10 pound apprentice, Yomar Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Ortiz with the limited opportunities that he’s had at this meet. If the odds disparity between him and the top pick widens (7-2 compared to 8-1), I’d definitely consider this one more. I do see him as a horse whose odds could float up in this race. 

Race 7:

The first turf contest of the afternoon is a N1X allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. I think Winter Holiday (#2) has a strong chance in this race. He showed potential at Turfway over the winter, running a big race in his third career start, which was also his first try at two turns. He broke his maiden that afternoon, but was sidelined from March to August before coming back and trying the turf for the first time at Ellis. He ran a big race that afternoon to be second that day, despite getting a wide trip. He was shuffled back behind runners and never really had a clear path to advance when racing at this level at Churchill last time out. This is not the strongest field for this condition and there are several in this race that I’m suspicious of. He’s making this third start off the layoff and assuming that Alex Achard can avoid getting buried behind several runners at the top of the stretch, I think this one has a strong chance to score with this group. The calculus of this race changes drastically if Fuzzbuster (#13) is able to make it into the body of this field from the AE list. He was 4th beaten only two lengths in the Secretariat Stakes at Colonial. He finished in close proximity to Alpyland, who is a graded stakes winner that will run back in the Bryan Station Stakes tomorrow afternoon. He took his talents to Kentucky Downs where he was last seen finishing third in the Gun Runner Stakes there. He scratched out of a dirt race at this condition on Wednesday, but there’s no guarantee that he makes it in this field. If he does, he’ll have to overcome a tough post. He’s still classier than the others in this race though. Quick Pick (#10) is one to upgrade if he doesn’t make into the body of this field. He ran well in both career starts in maiden allowance company on the turf. He debuted at the Spa and he scored for the first time at Churchill in his latest effort. He’ll face winners for the first time in a race where I could see him moving forward after pairing his first two Beyer Figures. 

Race 8, The $300K Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes:

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this stakes race. Four of the seven runners in this race are cutting back in distance, and all four of those horses last ran in stakes company. I think the one to beat is going to be Miss Anna (#2), who was third in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes last month, behind the undefeated filly, Manuka Honey. I think she’ll be content to let some of the others set a lively tempo. Tyler Gaffalione is riding this course extremely well at the moment, notching two more wins here on Wednesday. One of those scores came when riding for Brendan Walsh, who will give him the leg up again. Both Angel of Kirk (#5) and Stress Relief (#6) finished off the board in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes in their last starts. Neither was especially impressive, but they crossed the finish line less than a length apart. Angel of Kirk is the morning line favorite, while Stress Relief, who is the lone graded stakes winner in the field, is 4-1. I thought her first two efforts were sharp, so I’d prefer to take a longer price with her. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes:

Three year old fillies will go one mile in this Grade 2 turf contest. This is typically a very competitive race, but there’s a horse I really like here. Define (#3) could cap a big afternoon for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione. They’re teaming up with this Irish bred filly who is back with stakes company after clearing the first level allowance condition at Churchill last month. After breaking her maiden at Ellis in July, Walsh showed a lot of faith in this filly by putting her on a plane and competing in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. She was wide throughout and finished 8th that day, beaten a little less than six lengths. Tam Tam was the winner and she came back to score in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup here two weeks ago. She showed improvement and looked very sharp last month. She comes to Keeneland for the first time and she’s drawn well for the race she wants to run. I like her upside and I trust her more than the heavy favorite, Sister Troienne (#5). She’s worth using as a saver while making her second start off the layoff. She was a winner here last fall, but she couldn’t quite seal the deal in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes here in the spring. Despite winning three stakes races, she’s 0-3 in the graded stakes company. She’ll run a solid race, but I’m not sure how much higher her ceiling is. The longshot play in this race that is more interesting is Dakotah Blue (#10). She had a rough go of things when going 1 5/16 miles in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last month at Kentucky Downs. She was steadily improving at Woodbine over the summer, winning the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes two starts ago. Saffie Joseph took over as her trainer and he’s had three winners from six starters at this meet. 

Race 10:

I’m going to try to close out the day with some prices in this maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. I landed on Flash of Freedom (#7) for Matthew Sims and Rafael Bejarano. She has made five starts in her career, and three of them have come on very wet and sealed racetracks. She didn’t run a step in those three races, however, her two races on fast tracks both came on this oval and both were much better than her off track tries. She led most of the way before being caught in the late stages in a race at this level in the spring. She was coming off a bit off of a layoff for that race and she’s doing the same here. The dam has produced multiple stakes winners and most of her offspring have done their best work in two turn dirt races. Draw (#4) and Sesasi (#5) are both second time starters that I feel are worth considering in this race. Sesasi debuted in a seven furlong race at Saratoga last month on closing day there. She went off at 42-1 that day and ran a credible race to be third that afternoon. There’s hardly any two-turn dirt racing at Belmont, so getting her in a race at this distance around two turns might have played a role in shipping this filly from New York to Kentucky. Pletcher’s few starters at this meet have been live. Draw debuted in a strong maiden special weight race here last month when going 6 ½ furlongs. She’s bred to go longer on dirt, as Gun Runner gets 19% winners with his runners that are routing on the dirt for the first time. Her half sister ran a credible 4th last week as a two year old going long on the dirt for the first time.

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.