Just one more Saturday before Colonial’s day in the spotlight this summer, but this week it’s the juveniles that take top billing as there’s two 2YO stakes for VA-Restricted runners on the card.
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Selections
- Race 1: 4-5-1-8
- Race 2: 1-5-4-6
- Race 3: 3-5-4-1
- Race 4: 2-6-1-7
- Race 5: 12-5-1-11
- Race 6: 6-4-8-1
- Race 7: 9-8-6-3
- Race 8: 2-9-1-7
- Race 9: 2-9-3-5
- Race 10: 6-1-4-9
Colonial Downs Race 4: Power Grid (#2) at 3-1 or higher
The Hickory Tree stakes is a trip handicapper’s dream as all five contenders exit the same maiden special weight from the July 10th card. That event was won in impressive fashion by ML favorite Trendsetter (#1) closing with a rush to win geared down late. However, that race featured a blistering opening quarter, so I don’t want to go overboard on his visually appealing effort. A few of the others were contesting that pace including Cool Customer (#6) who went off favored in that event. He’s very dangerous to win this if he can get the lead, but I thought he had a good journey up the inside. I can make a case Power Grid (#2) had the least ideal journey in that event having to chase the fast pace wide around the turn. Now, he draws inside and can potentially get the trip Cool Customer received last time and rally up the rail. The Robb barn often reaches out to Xavier Perez when he has a good 2YO like when the pair teamed up with Romeo to win the Bashford Manor earlier this summer.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Doctor Jeff (#2) at 5-1 or higher
This N2X turf sprint attracted a pretty goot one in Boat’s a Rockin (#7) who has been competitive on the New York circuit. He’s got an abundance of early speed, but the presence of Quick Tempo (#6) to his inside could be a thorn in his side. Swill (#9) also likes to be forwardly placed, but I prefer him to the favorite given his outside draw will provide Centeno with some options of where to place him in the early stages. I’m gonna play this race to set up for a closer and while Incinerator (#1) makes a ton of sense from the rail, I landed on one who I think might be a square price. Doctor Jeff (#2) has some races on the go-back that would drown this field, but it remains to be seen if he can reproduce that form. Isolating his turf races, I think he’s been facing tougher fields and I’m willing to ignore that route race two back. Ben Curtis has been riding lights out this meet and should negotiate a nice journey from the inside.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Ready to Rocknroll (#6) at 5-2 or higher
I think the key to this nightcap is the fact there’s a couple of one-way speeds ensuring that I wanted to choose a closer. However, if one of either Innocent Nyght (#4) or Naval Hospital (#9) end up coming out of this affair, the other becomes extremely dangerous to wire on the front end. Some may be tempted to go to first-time starter All Included (#10) given the top-flight connections of Brittany Russell and Repole Stable. However, debuting a $195k purchase at this $16k level late in her 3YO season gives me cause for pause. Furthermore, the Russell barn is 0/11 debuting on the turf in maiden claimers. Souper Upgrade (#8) seems logical on paper given the nice run she put in last out and the fact she gets an extra furlong, but I think she’ll get overbet. I put Ready to Rocknroll (#6) on top hoping she’ll be a slightly better price for the dangerous Arnaud Delacour barn. I like that she’s a new face to this group and think she’s got enough tactical speed to stay close but she proved in her last turf start the ability to stalk the pace. I’m also intrigued by what we’ll get from the firster on the rail, Cartoon City (#1). This barn has struck with debuting an older horse in a turf maiden claimer in the past and I like both the fact she’s by Temple City and has Karamanos aboard.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/1)
All
Top Picks: 73-19-14-9 (26%, $1.62); Featured Horses: 24-4-4-5 (17%, $1.57)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 39-6-9-5 (15%, $1.22); Featured Horses: 16-2-3-3 (13%, $1.55)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 42%; B’s: 36%; C’s: 19%; X’s: 3%
