A pair of VA-Restricted stakes races highlight the Saturday card at Colonial Downs. Hopefully the thunderstorms stay away this afternoon so we don’t have a duplicate of yesterday’s washout.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-3-1-4
- Race 2: 3-4-8-5
- Race 3: 1-5-4-2
- Race 4: 8-4-10-7
- Race 5: 6-4-3-5
- Race 6: 7-3-12-6
- Race 7: 7-5-2-1
- Race 8: 1-2-5-12
- Race 9: 1-12-8-10
- Race 10: 1-11-4-10
Colonial Downs Race 7: Noquestionaboutit (#7) at 3-1 or higher
The Glenn Petty stakes will feature a heavy favorite in Mystic Seaport (#5) who is looking for a repeat in this event. This mare has a formidable 5/8 record on turf and has really run her best races over that surface in the past couple years. She’s gonna be tough to beat, but I have questions given the Ness barn’s record here at Colonial in the past as its just 2/32 (9%, $0.50 ROI) on turf here the last 5 years. While she hasn’t stubbed her toe often, the one time she lost over turf in her last five starts it was to a R. Larry Johnson owned, Mike Trombetta trainee and I feel history might repeat itself here. Noquestionaboutit (#7) is lightly-raced and liable to improve for this stakes debut. I love that she’s drawn outside of the other speed and can work out a nice stalking trip.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Corso’s Pick (#1) at 7-1
These last few races on the Colonial card are super competitive affairs including this first-level allowance going 5.5f on the turf. I imagine the favorite will be the undefeated Pajaro (#10) who is 2/2 after winning a maiden and state-bred allowance down at Gulfstream. This gelding does have a figure edge on this crew, but there’s plenty of speed in this race to prevent him from getting the same comfortable front-running trips he got down South. Of the main contenders I prefer Monsieur Candy (#8) who switches into the Liz Merryman barn. This gelding has the best single line of form on anyone’s page if you isolate his maiden win at Keeneland last year where he got a 94 Beyer. He’s yet to repeat that number, but maybe the barn change will get him back to that level. I like a couple prices in this spot. Themanupfront (#12) could get caught up in a speed duel, but I like that he’s drawn outside which gives jockey Meneses options of where to place him early. Turnbacks on turf are usually pretty tough, but a router with early speed is the type of runner that can handle it. My top pick needs to take a step forward on figures, but I like the versatility Corso’s Pick (#1) has shown in his turf sprints and I wouldn’t mind seeing him settle in the second flight. If Axel Concepcion can work out a trip from the pocket, this grey could find the winners’ circle here.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Crawford (#1) at 7-2 or higher
The week two finale is a very competitive maiden special weight on paper, so much so that it’s tough to be too confident who will go off favored. While the morning line has Panama Canal (#6) as the favorite, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Be Together (#11) go off as the public’s choice. I can see why as this Augustin Stables homebred takes to the turf for the first time after debuting on the synthetic track at Presque Isle. As a daughter of Uncle Mo from the family of M1GW turf mare Forever Together, I see this surface switch and extra distance as a big positive. The runners Jonathan Thomas has brought to Colonial have been live this meet with two 2nd’s from as many starters and this is a positive move for the barn posting a record of 5/19 (26%, $3.37 ROI) going synth-to-turf in maiden events. I’ll use her prominently, but my top pick should be a better price and that’s Crawford (#1) going out for the Vikki Oliver barn. I love that this filly drew a cozy inside post so hopefully Gavin Ashton can work out a ground-saving trip. Being out of a Tapit mare, the extra 3/16 of this race should suit her well. I thought she’s been facing tougher fields in the last two at Churchill and was put behind the eight-ball by a poor start last time.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/12)
All
Top Picks: 25-8-6-2 (32%, $2.84); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.89)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 14-3-3-1 (21%, $3.66); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-1 (14%, $2.40)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 60%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 0%
