A pair of VA-Restricted stakes take center stage on Saturday afternoon and while he won’t offer much value in the win pools, I’m most looking forward to seeing Determined Kingdom in the 7th race on the card. I’ve been covering Colonial Downs for In the Money Media since 2021 and this colt has been a fixture winning seven times over this turf course including at least one win in every year 2021-26 save 2025. Most of those wins were racked up while in the Phil Schoenthal barn, but it appears Mike Trombetta has him back to his old self coming in here off two straight wins.
I also hopped on the In The Money Media Youtube channel to preview this card and my spot plays in video form so check that out as well.
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-6-5-4
- Race 2: 6-1-2-5
- Race 3: 8-9-5-12
- Race 4: 5-6-7-4
- Race 5: 1-7-5-3
- Race 6: 11-5-6-8
- Race 7: 5-3-4-6
- Race 8: 8-5-4-2
- Race 9: 4-9-7-8
- Race 10: 3-9-7-6
Colonial Downs Race 3: Lolo’s Girl (#8) at 7-1 or higher
One of my favorite things about handicapping Colonial Downs is how many of these full field turf races we see around these parts. This $16k N2L features a field of twelve in the body of the race with only a couple true tosses. My main opinion is not to take a short price on Hop to It (#7) who steps up in class after winning a $16k MClm last time out. That was a weak field and she got a candy trip just off the pace and there’s roughly 5-6 horses who are faster than her early. That makes me think this pace will heat up, but if I was going to include one of the speeds it would be Ribadeo (#1) who has never run at this low a level on grass. The same can be said for Unlimited Gold (#5) who of the short prices makes the most sense to me going out for the O’Dwyer barn. However, I wanted to get creative in this spot and highlight a couple of long shots. It’s not often you get this big a price on a Trombetta runner on this circuit, but Too Loose La Trek (#9) will be just that. I’m envisioning a similar trip as the one she parlayed into a victory over this course in late June and can throw out her last dirt start. My top pick is Lolo’s Girl (#8) who for my money won a much tougher maiden event than the favorite with her victory in an open MSW down at Evangeline. This daughter of Oscar Performance proved she can launch a huge rally getting up to win over a horse who came back to win in her next start. I liked the ambition the connections showed entering in an N1X in their first local try, but can toss that effort due to the soft ground. She finds a much more suitable level here and I love to see Jareth Loveberry hopping aboard.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Boujee Bubblez (#4) at 9-2 or higher
The co-feature of the afternoon is the All Brandy Stakes for fillies and mares going long on the turf. The likely favorite is set to be Day to Day (#8) who won a similar event earlier in the meet when she took the Brookmeade Stakes by open lengths. While she was impressive that day, this is a much tougher group and I’m not keen on taking horses at under 2-1 in double-digit fields on the grass. Her main rival on paper is Amie’s Symphony (#9) and I actually think this is a drop in class for her compared to the N2X fields she faced in her two prior starts of the meet. While she has top connections in her corner, I’m concerned about her complete lack of early pace. That’s why I ultimately landed on Boujee Bubbles (#4) as the top pick in this spot. While some may question whether she can go this far, I’m of the belief the trip she’ll pull this afternoon will aid her in navigating the extra distance. Her win three-back was a pretty salty event at Laurel given it came on the Preakness undercard and she should get the jump on the favorites. The wildcard in this spot worth including in your exotics is Pink Ruby (#7) who goes tries the turf for the first time. She’s in very solid form and her dam raced primarily on turf and synthetic.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Radiant Tones (#3) at 6-1 or higher
I spent longer than I’m proud to admit handicapping this nightcap and found it nearly inscrutable. Yet I’m still making it one of my spot plays as I see it as a race worth playing if Wetherby (#2) is anywhere near her 3-2 morning line. This mare is coming off a 3rd place finish at 33-1 in an effort that I don’t think gives her a huge edge on this field. If you are against the favorite, your opinion of this race boils down to who do you want out of the two similar events that were run on the 7/25 card. A few of these come out of the 4th race that day and I want to include horses like Blue Ice (#6) and Hail No (#7) who were setting the quick pace that came apart. However, with them both back in this spot and another speed in Shiv (#1) signed on, they could be pace casualties again. That’s why I went to two horse coming out of the 9th race on that card that finished up 0.3s faster despite a slower early pace. Yeah Glo (#9) is the horse to bear in my mind given her second place finish in that event and I like the jockey upgrade to Forest Boyce. I’ll use her prominently in any of my plays, but made my top pick Radiant Tones (#3). While she finished behind that rival in their common race, she had to wait to get clear entering the lane and never was really able to straighten out to unleash her clear rally down the lane. While her 0/19 record is certainly concerning, I can’t pass up the difference in price vs Yeah Glo given the last race they put on tape.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/12)
All
Top Picks: 109-23-17-22 (21%, $1.61); Featured Horses: 36-7-5-5 (19%, $2.01)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 82-17-8-19 (21%, $1.91); Featured Horses: 29-5-3-5 (17%, $2.21)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 4%
