The biggest day of the Fall Meet offers 11 races, including three Grade 1 contests this afternoon. Several tickets will be punched for the Breeders’ Cup, which will happen four weeks from today right here at Keeneland. First post for this loaded 11 race card is 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 4 | 4,5,1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4,10 | 11 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 3 | 3,2,9 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | ||
| 6 | 5 | 5,10 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf PK3 (R6,R8, R10) |
|
| 7 | 7 | 7,6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | DBL, PK3 |
| 10 | 7 | 7,3,9 | DBL | ||
| 11 | 10 | 10,7,3 |
Race 1:
Keeneland’s big day begins with a maiden special weight contest going about seven furlongs over the Beard Course. There were high expectations for many of these runners, but many have had roadblocks along the way. While I’m not in love with the shorter prices in this race, I also don’t think the longshots are in the same class of horse as Dream Machine (#4). He’ll be the pick in this race after a strong return to the races at Saratoga last month. His debut was foiled when his stablemate went down. He made contact with his fallen foe, causing the rider to be out of his irons, basically eliminating him from the competition. It took him almost a full year to get back to the track after that mishap, but he was no worse for wear as he finished a competitive third that day. Brown sending him here feels like a vote of confidence. I like the added distance for him and getting that race under his belt is what puts him over the top for me. I do think Commentate (#2) has the look of a horse that is going to fire off the bench. Cherie DeVaux unveiled him at Churchill on the first Stars of Tomorrow last year. He broke slowly and was no match for Stradale, who had some solid experience under his belt going into that race. His recent drills have been eye-catching in the morning so I do believe that his best days are in front of him.
Race 2:
A half dozen two year olds will sprint six furlongs in a N2L allowance race. I think this contest is rather wide open, so I’ll try Never Sleep (#4) on top for Larry Rivelli. He ran a solid second in a five furlong sprint at Colonial on debut in July. He came back to break his maiden with a solid effort on the dirt at Ellis two back. He came back in a $250K allowance race going 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs where he took some public money. He led early, but tired as he tried to climb the hill in the stretch. I think moving back to the dirt and cutting back to six furlongs will help him out in this race and I expect that last race will have him fit and sharp today. Dormie (#5) ships here after a game second place effort in the Prairie Freshman Stakes back in August. They were flying early in that race and he was moving well late to be second as the favorite in that race. I do expect a battle for the lead in this race, so playing a horse that has shown an ability to run on late is encouraging. The same could be said about Chancery (#1)who had to overcome avoiding a fallen rival when winning on debut. He was forced to steady, but he did show maturity by being able to persevere and draw away to score rather easily at Churchill last month. He was working well over this oval prior to that start and he had another sharp drill last week in preparation for this race. He makes a lot of sense, but it’s hard to take too short of a price on anyone in this race.
Race 3:
The first turf race of the day is a N1X allowance contest for fillies and mares going 1 3/16 miles. Paseo (#4) looks like an interesting value play in this race for Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez Jr. She has six straight in the money finishes, including a game third place effort at Kentucky Downs when facing winners for the first time. It took her a while to break her maiden, but she did come through at Ellis two back. Her last effort suggests that she is trending in the right direction when going into this race. Siouxse (#10) is a Colonial Downs shipper for Graham Motion. She was recently third at a nice price in the Old Dominion Oaks in her last try. She just missed two back when 10 furlongs over a yielding course in Virginia. Motion typically finds some of his best horses to target this meet and I think this is a good landing spot for this three year old Union Rags filly. Tulip (#11) threw down the gauntlet early when going this distance in her last start at Saratoga. She led just about every step of the way before getting nailed on the wire by Midnight Concerto. That one came back to the Yaddo Stakes in her next start at Saratoga. The outside draw is going to complicate things for her since early speed is the name of her game. If speed held well on Friday on the grass, I’d definitely upgrade her, but on a fair course, I do think it;s likely that she’ll get caught late.
Race 4:
A field of six has been assembled for this optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance sprint going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. Assuming that we’re working with a fair main track, I think Lips Say Bliss (#6) is going to have every chance to run by this group in the stretch of this race. The first four horses in the gate all have early speed with Autodrive (#1)breaking on the rail, I think he has to send early on. Between Floodlites (#2), C K Wonder (#3), and Durante (#4), I don’t think they let him get away with an easy lead. Lips Say Bliss is a stone cold closer that figures to be last down the backstretch. He’ll be launching his bid at the top of the stretch. He had a nice stretch of races when going six furlongs at Oaklawn over the winter, winning in December when being 16 lengths behind the leader at the first point of call. He came up empty when going off Lasix for the King Cotton Stakes in his next start and then he went to the sidelines before resurfacing in a 6 ½ furlong turf sprint at Kentucky Downs. Despite not loving the turf, he still closed well from way back to get into third that day. He’s a better horse on the dirt and assuming this field stays intact, I think he gets the right setup. I’m expecting him to score in his second start off the bench. I like the decision from C K Wonder to skip the Phoenix in favor of this race. I think he could get a nice stalking trip just in behind the rail runners. He has a win on this course and was a winner at this distance in his last start at Ellis. He is moving up in class, but he’s been in good form of late. He’s the one I want as the backup here.
Race 5:
The Early Pick-5 concludes with an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race going 1 1/18 miles over the main track. Take note that even though the Pick-6 wager typically runs through the last six races on the card, it will start in this race and conclude with the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile in Race 10.I think we’re going to see a better effort from First Resort (#3) in this race. This is a horse that had Derby ambitions in 2025 after an impressive score in the 2024 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He was away for over a year and a half before resurfacing in a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint at Ellis over the summer. He ran well in that race, but probably wasn’t ready to make the jump to nine furlongs on the dirt in his second try off that break. He chased a strong tempo for the distance in that race and faded to finish 6th. He’s had six stamina building works at Turfway since that last race and now he finds himself against a solid field, but a field that is lacking a legitimate pacesetter. I’m looking for Saez to get him to the front without having to work too hard. If he can get an easy half mile, I think that will go a long way toward getting him to come home with a stronger punch today. Render Judgment (#2) should find himself in the role of the stalker in this spot. He’s put together several credible efforts in a row. His lone dull effort came in the Cornhusker at Prairie Meadows where he was off Lasix. I think Jose Ortiz learned a few things about him last time out when he was a little too far back in the early stages at Saratoga. His inside draw and the lack of other speed here should put him in a much more dangerous position. While Render Judgment faltered in Iowa, Bullard (#9) turned in a career best performance when he finished second to Navajo Warrior in the Cornhusker Stakes. That effort was good enough for him to head to West Virginia to compete in the Charles Town Classic. He didn’t run a step on the six furlong bullring there, which is the case for certain horses. I’m willing to forgive that effort, but it’s hard to get too excited about a favorite that has not won a race in almost two full years.
Race 6, The Grade 2 Woodford Stakes Presented by Fanduel:
The first of five graded stakes races on the program is a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint for three year olds and up. This race will start the All-Stakes Pick-5 wager and the $3 All-Turf Pick-3. I’m going to try to beat the favorite, Joe Shiesty (#6) in this race. He’s such a cool horse and I’ve been a big fan of his over the last few years. However, he doesn’t typically fire his best effort on this turf course. The course here is a little different in style than the Churchill or Ellis course and I don’t think he likes it as much. Perhaps he’s grown into a better horse, but I’m looking in other directions. I think this is a good spot for Okiro (#5) to come from off the pace. He came within a length of catching Joe Shiesty at Ellis two back and he was close enough behind Doncho and Joe Shiesty three starts ago. He didn’t fire his best race at Kentucky Downs, which happens to some horses. The pace should be a little spicier in this race than it was two back and the longer stretch here might work to his advantage. Tyler Gaffalione getting the assignment is an upgrade. Doncho (#10) has had four starts this year. While things didn’t start very well at Laurel in the spring, he’s been really good in his last three starts. Drawing the outside post should give him a tactical edge over Joe Shiesty as he figures to be hounding him every step of the way. He’s 0-2 on this course, but he’s a better horse than the last time he was here. Motorious (#7) is a bit of a wildcard for me in this race. He’s another one that should be moving well in the late stages of this race and the added half furlong and the longer stretch here at Keeneland (compared to Del Mar). His lone start away from California was not great, but that was two years ago over a course that was probably closer to yielding than good.
Race 7, The Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes:
This Grade 2 Contest is a Win and You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. There is a change in distance from last year as this race has historically been run at six furlongs. This year, these fillies and mares will be asked to go 6 ½ furlongs, which is a ½ furlong shorter than the Breeders’ Cup race at the end of the month. Both Eclatant (#6) and Echo Sound (#7) were soundly beaten in the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at the end of August when they both made their last start. They ran into Ways and Means who was simply awesome that afternoon. Echo Sound finished much closer to the champion than Eclatant, who was a complete dud that afternoon. Both of these four year old fillies have stakes wins on this course, with Eclatant putting on a show when winning the Grade 1 Madison here back in the spring. Echo Sound won the Myrtlewood Stakes here in her two year old season. Both fillies have tactical speed, but neither particularly wants to be carving out the fractions. I think Echo Sound is sitting on a bigger race when making her third start off the layoff. She was not fully cranked when she won the Regret at Monmouth two back in her first start of the year. She was sharper for the Ballerina, in spite of running into a beast. Eclatant has the potential to be a beast as she showed in the spring, but her form has tailed off a bit of late. These are still the two that should decide this one.
Race 8, The Grade 1 First Lady Stakes:
This Grade 1 contest for fillies and mares going one mile over the turf course is always a contentious race. I love Lush Lips (#2) in this spot, making her second start off the layoff. She was the winner of the QEII Challenge Cup here last fall before capping an excellent three year old campaign in the Mrs. Revere Stakes. She was sold for $3.7 million and kept in training, while still racing for Brendan Walsh. She scored in her four year old debut in the Honey Fox at this same distance at Gulfstream, but an injury kept her off the track for about six months. She came back in a stakes race on the turf at Ellis, where she set a slow pace and was nailed late. She clearly needed that race and I doubt she was fully cranked, especially with an $800K Grade 1 race on the horizon. She loves this course and I think the two turn mile distance suits her perfectly. There’s speed from both Casse horses and I think both Mandanaba (#3) and Segesta (#8) can keep them honest. I also think having that start at Ellis gives her an edge over her stablemate, Expensive Queen (#4), who dead-heated for the win in the Jenny Wiley back in April when she was last seen on the track. I think she can just off them and make her move at the top of the stretch. And One More Time (#5) is the backup for me in this race. Castellano was a little passive when riding her in the Just a Game when she was last seen facing Grade 1 opposition. However, her stablemate, Classic Q (#9), broke sharply along the rail and set the tempo en route to a wire to wire score. This is a filly that is best when she’s setting the fractions, and she’s been able to do that in her last two starts at the Spa. She has inside position on her stablemate today so I think she’ll be able to make the lead. If Castellano can get a breather in the second quarter, so she could get brave in the stretch.
Race 9, The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity:
I have a full horse by horse write-up for this race linked below, but the quick and dirty version is that Coach Hope (#1) is strictly the one to beat. His effort when breaking his maiden last month at Churchill was exceptional and his rail post should allow him to run his race. Q B Rocket (#2) was geared down when breaking his maiden at Saratoga in his last start. He has the pedigree to improve at two turns for a barn that excels with second time starters. Jaded (#5) is a live longshot who is moving to the dirt for the first time after rallying to win his debut. The dam foaled a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and the sire was a Grade 1 winner on the dirt.
Race 10, The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile:
The Win and You’re in race for the Breeder’s Cup Mile drew a solid field of nine, but I see this as a top heavy race. I’ll take the European invader, Lake Forest (#7) on top. He has a pair of stakes wins this year overseas, scoring in Group 2 race at seven furlongs at Goodwood three back. He ran well to be second to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Notable Speech in his last start at York. I think he’s been keeping better company than the Americans and assuming he can adapt to the American turf, I think he has a strong chance in this race. Rhetorical (#3) opened some eyes when he won this race last fall, pulling off the upset at 9-1. Looking at his pattern going into that race last year, I think they’re trying to get him to peak in the Mile. After his huge effort on Derby Bay, they tried stretching him out beyond the Mile in the Manhattan. He wasn’t bad, the 1 3/16 mile distance proved to be too far. He didn’t have the best trip in the Fourstardave when dealing with Deterministic on his favorite course. He’ll be forward in this race, but so will Zulu Kingdom (#9), who is posted outside in this race. He’s taken a big step forward in the second half of his four year old campaign. He won the Makers Mark Mile here in the spring and he might be better now. The outside draw is a challenge, but he’s worth using in a race where it’s hard to separate the top three.
Race 11:
Sixteen two year old fillies are entered in this maiden special weight contest going six furlong, however, there will be a maximum of 12 in the starting gate. The two horses in the body of the field with experience don’t offer much on paper. For as precocious as Jackie’s Warrior was, he doesn’t have a ton of debut winners yet. However, I like the look of Rapagna (#10) in this race. William Walden has done very well with his first time starters, winning 24% of the time since 2024. His two year olds win 19% of the time on debut and the works are solid from this filly that fetched $325K at the OBS Sale in 2026. Pasta (#7) is another horse that sold for a decent amount of coin at that same sale this spring. She has been amping up her workouts in the morning for George Arnold. The dam’s runners have been best at two turns on the turf, so that could be in her future down the road. However, the speed influence from Munnings could help her case. Rock Your Dreams (#3) has been tearing up the track in the mornings for Ken McPeek. She’s had four straight bullet workouts over this course in the morning, which has been enough for her to be installed as the morning line favorite. Rock Your World gets 12% winners from his firsters in dirt sprint races.
2026 Spring Meet Final Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 35/139 (25.2%), $274.36, $1.97 ROI
2025 Fall Meet Final Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 35/157 (22.3%), $329.10, $2.10 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
