It’s claiming crown showcase day at Colonial Downs where the top two finishers of the nine starter handicap races on the card will earn automatic berths into the Claiming Crown championship events held at Churchill Downs on November 14th.
I also hopped on the In The Money Media YouTube channel to preview this card and my spot plays in video form so check that out as well.
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-4-5-3
- Race 2: 5-6-2-7
- Race 3: 5-6-3-4
- Race 4: 7-6-1-4
- Race 5: 6-2-3-5
- Race 6: 3-9-4-8
- Race 7: 10-7-3-8
- Race 8: 6-7-3-2
- Race 9: 7-5-9-6
- Race 10: 2-3-4-6
- Race 11: 5-1-10-9
Colonial Downs Rac e 2: Pegster (#5) at 7-1 or higher
There’s no doubt that Sea Lion (#6) is the horse to beat in this VA-Restricted $16k N2L, but given the fact she couldn’t get it done as the favorite last time at a similar level, I think she’s worth taking a shot against especially if she’s going to be around her 3-5 morning line. A couple options I considered included Hovekoma (#2) and Katarzyna (#7). The former is taking a precipitous drop in class while also going a route of ground for the first time and these connections have been pretty potent this meet. The latter has been showing improvement race-over-race this meet and should still be a decent number this afternoon. However, I went to Pegster (#5) as the top pick in this spot. Her lone win came over a year ago, but I’d argue most of those races since have been at too tough a level. In her two starts at a $16k claiming level, she disappointed as the 2-1 favorite, but that race preceded a break. Then in her lone attempt at this level in 2026 she lost a b0b in a twelve horse field at Delaware. I find it notable she was favored in a $30k event last time despite going out for such a low-percentage outfit. Now she drops back down to the proper level and will be a generous price.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Fluid Situation (#10) at 3-1 or higher
It’s a pretty interesting renewal of the Claiming Crown Canterbury Qualifier that includes the winner of last year’s Claiming Crown turf sprint championship in Shape Note (#7). I do view this versatile Mike Maker trainee as the one to beat in this spot, but wouldn’t want to take too short a number. His main rival is the speedy Bushido (#3) who has already made two starts over the Colonial lawn this meet. He didn’t disgrace himself with either effort finishing second both times, but he really should have beaten those fields given he was sent off at 4-5 & 3-5 respectively. There’s also a decent amount of other early speed signed on in this race with the likes of Mi Dinero (#1) and Normandy Hero (#6) drawn on either side of him. That’s why I’ve landed on the other Maker trainee and made Fluid Situation (#10) the top pick. I like that this gelding possesses tactical speed and an advantageous outside post that will allow the meet’s leading rider Paco Lopez plenty of options. He has plenty of back races to get back to and this operation has a way of waking up these older horses when they’re new arrivals to the barn.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Goats On a Tree (#7) at 4-1 or higher
This qualifier for the Claiming Crown Tiara runs through Smiling Ellie (#5) who figures to be a heavy favorite for Mark Casse. This is plenty of class relief for this mare who spent her last three in either stakes races or high allowance events on some top circuits. She’s proven to be adept at Colonial with a win here over course and distance last summer, but that also represents her last win over a year ago. I’m going to her main rival Goats On a Tree (#7) as the top pick in this spot. This mare makes her first turf start since being claimed by young Kinnon LaRose for $50k out of a winning effort back in May. While that came for the potent Mike Maker barn, LaRose really only needs to maintain that form to be competitive with the favorite and it seems to me they’ve been pointing to this spot. There’s a trio of 8-1 shots on the morning line in Goodbetterbest (#2), Dynamic Actress (#6), and Stillthinkingofyou (#9) who all could get it done, but they’d need one of the two favorites not to show up with their best.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Groveland (#2) at 5-2 or higher
My final spot play of the day comes in this qualifier for the Claiming Crown Jewel going long on the dirt. I think this is a race worth participating in if Nogradi (#1) goes off anywhere near his 2-1 morning line. I really didn’t see much of an excuse for his poor effort last time at Saratoga and it’s not like he’s won a race of this quality before. Majorca (#7) is dangerous to wire this group and this barn has hit at a high percentage the last 12 months, but the final sixteenth could prove pretty demanding. I like what I’ve seen from Groveland (#2) in his two most recent starts on fast dirt leading him to be my top pick in this spot. He won a two-turn route the day Eddie Kenneally claimed him and polished off a field of $40k claimers at Ellis last month. What I liked most was how he was striding out at the late stages of those events which makes me believe he’ll relish the 9f. This gelding was cut out to be a good one briefly flirting with the Derby trail back in 2023 and maybe this top barn can get him to peak as a 6YO. I wouldn’t completely discount Just a Fair Shake (#3) or Cadet Corps (#4). The former was claimed back by Daniel McKenzie out of his last start and this is the barn this colt had the most success with going back to last year. The latter hasn’t won in a while, but notched a victory in this event last year and could be offer a decent price to repeat.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/19)
All
Top Picks: 119-26-20-23 (22%, $1.68); Featured Horses: 39-7-5-5 (18%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 88-18-10-19 (20%, $1.99); Featured Horses: 32-5-3-5 (16%, $2.00)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 50%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 13%; X’s: 3%
