While the big graded stakes of last weekend have come and past, this Saturday’s card at Colonial Downs is still a doozy. There’s full fields aplenty scheduled to go including a couple fun 6f turf sprints that highlight the card.
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Selections
- Race 1: 8-9-2-1
- Race 2: 3-5-8-10
- Race 3: 1-2-8-10
- Race 4: 2-8-12-3
- Race 5: 7-2-5-3
- Race 6: 4-5-7-9
- Race 7: 1-7-2-8
- Race 8: 3-4-6-5
- Race 9: 5-7-6-1
- Race 10: 2-5-8-6
Colonial Downs Race 1: Yes Chef (#8) at 4-1 or higher
Let’s try to get the Saturday card off to a hot start with a spot play in the lid-lifter. The two inside runners both make a ton of sense as Blessings Bestowed (#2) nearly won at this level as the favorite last out and Jack Charles (#1) has enough pedigree to handle this surface switch. However, both will be short prices and the former faces a slightly tougher assignment today for a low percentage barn and you’d think the latter would’ve tried this surface if he really wanted it. Like the ML fav, Esoooo (#9) also is coming into this off a runner up finish at the level. He nearly got up in that spot and now has an extra half-furlong to work with, but will be much shorter than the 18-1 on offer in his last. I like another runner out of that same race and made Yes Chef (#8) the top pick. He finished behind Esoooo, but I thought had the tougher journey racing wide around the turn and he at least proved to handle the new surface. Plus, the O’Dwyer barn has been firing on all cylinders this meet hitting at 42%.
Colonial Downs Race 3: Dare Defying (#1) at 5-2 or higher
There’s a heavy favorite likely in this bottom level maiden claimer and I’m not sure he deserves to be as short a price he’s likely to go off. Diamond Knife (#10) is well-posted on the outside, but this is a precipitous drop in class off the claim of a barn that I usually fade runners coming out off. His new trainer hits at a high percentage with new additions, but the Ness barn does its best work in PA. I like both the inside two runners in this spot, but ultimately landed on Dare Defying (#1) as the top pick. This colt has proven that he’s in decent enough form and fits at this class level. The slight cutback in distance should work for him and the Joy barn is actually solid off the claim hitting at 20% in the last year. City of Bling (#2) is out of that aforementioned dangerous O’Dwyer barn and could certainly compete here given he only started once, but this is pretty early to give up when there’s other VA restricted races available. Avigliano (#8) is also a longer price worth including. He actually took a decent amount of money on debut against open MSW company and this field could be much more to his liking and the Duarte barn hits at 28% with 2nd time starters.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Carolyncaroline (#3) at 5-1 or higher
The co-feature of the afternoon is the Shenandoah Stakes for 3YO fillies sprinting on the grass. I don’t have any significant knocks on the logicals and feel Meilani (#2), Hark Theangelssing (#4) and Final Accord (#6) all make sense in this spot, but none will be too appetizing of a price. There’s three runners coming out of the same stakes race at Monmouth last time and I’m actually making the one who finished furthest back my top pick. Carolyncaroline (#3) was bet down to favoritism in that spot after showing distinct improvement getting back to the grass in that May 30th effort. While it didn’t work out for her last time, now she’s going to be a much bigger price against a comparable field. She showed plenty of talent in her two turf starts as a juvenile that with routine improvement, she can take down this group at a square number.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Nothinglesswilldo (#2) at 6-1 or higher
I’m not enthralled with the chances of the two shortest prices on the morning line in this nightcap. Duchessa (#11) could go off favored for the Arnaud Delacour barn dropping in class to this N3L, but I can tell this barn’s been searching on what to do with this filly after entering and scratching her out of a marathon allowance race. Oscar Bound (#9) would be dangerous if allowed to control the pace on the front end as she did in her most recent win at Gulfstream, but these bulky fields often see the tempo heat up. That dynamic would suit my top pick Nothinglesswilldo (#2) who I think can win right back after an impressive win in an N2L over this course back in July. While this is a slightly tougher group, this gray filly is well-drawn to the inside and can get a nice pocket trip under Jose Vargas. I’d also include Devastating (#5) who has disappointed at short prices in back-to-back starts, but I’d argue this field isn’t as tough as the N1X event he nearly won in his last turf start and he should be a decent price.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/5)
All
Top Picks: 99-21-14-21 (21%, $1.43); Featured Horses: 32-6-4-5 (19%, $1.83)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 73-15-6-18 (21%, $1.68); Featured Horses: 25-4-2-5 (16%, $2.01)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 32%; C’s: 13%; X’s: 4%
