Saturdays in the summer are normally a pretty crowded place on the racing calendar, but this feels like one where the Colonial card is the 2nd or 3rd most competitive on the day with Del Mar yet to begin and Monmouth’s big weekend a week away. I’ll be on site to take in the action at my home track and will be looking forward to the three stakes that are on the schedule. Also, I hopped on the In The Money Players’ Podcast with PTF, so you can get my thoughts on the entire pick six sequence in audio form there.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 3-2-4-6
- Race 2: 5-1-3-4
- Race 3: 8-1-4-3
- Race 4: 8-9-5-1
- Race 5: 3-6-5-1
- Race 6: 6-11-1-4
- Race 7: 1-6-9-3
- Race 8: 8-2-7-6
- Race 9: 3-6-5-1
- Race 10: 11-3-1-10
Colonial Downs Race 6: Innocent Nyght (#6) at 6-1 or higher
I believe the key to this turf sprint which kicks off the late pick five (12% takeout!) is the fact it’s contested over a flat five furlongs. At that distance, the run into the turn is not very long here at Colonial so outside posts are likely at a disadvantage. The short nature of this race also means you don’t want to have too much ground to make up in the lane. Both those factors led me to find Magic Mark (#1) interesting as the Munoz trainees always have speed and she could burst out of there from the rail draw. The horse to beat is probably Souper Upgrade (#4) as that turf figure three-back would likely win this race, but I’m thinking this distance might leave her with too much to do since he’s not a forward type. My top pick is Innocent Nyght (#6) and while this filly hasn’t placed in the top two in any of her 15 lifetime starts to date she hasn’t been given that many opportunities on the turf. In fact, this is her first time racing at the maiden claiming level on the grass and she does so at the low $16k level. She has some positive running lines over this distance from Horseshoe Indy last fall and also has the positional speed to find a good spot within the race.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Desvio (#8) at 5-1 or higher
I have no argument with those who hold the belief that Dripping Gold (#2) is going to prove too good for this field. He actually ran pretty well in the marathon stake at Delaware off the bench last time and I’m not convinced he really wants to be on the lead or go that far so it was encouraging to see he him run that well. I think 9f should be perfect for him and he ultimately might turn out to be the best horse in this field long-term. I think the key to this race is that it projects to have a fast pace and so I want nothing to do with the horses that want to run on or near the lead. That leads me to my top pick Desvio (#8) who I think could work out a perfect trip from midpack. Since the switch to turf last summer there’s been a few signs that this gelding could beat a field like this. After two nice wins, he was third over this course and distance in the G3-Virginia Derby last year not too far behind eventual G1 winner Deterministic. I’m willing to look past his couple of failed stakes tries in New York and have reason to believe each of his three performances this year are better than they look on paper. Two and three-back he was caught wide and still ran on each time beaten less than three lengths and last time he made a move into the hottest part of the race going a distance a bit outside his scope. I think getting back to the 9f works wonders for him and he’s able to make noise in the lane.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Studlydoright (#3) at 8-1 or higher
I don’t have any major knocks on the principal players in the Star De Naskra Stakes as both Barbadian Runner (#5) and Reggie Runs Rogue (#6) make a ton of sense in this spot. However, the former is likely to go off as the favorite and doesn’t hold a significant speed figure edge on this group and the latter seems like people’s most logical alternative getting back to Colonial where he’s 2/2. I’ll get a little more creative and make Studlydoright (#3) the top selection here as he’s finally spotted realistically after some odd and/or lofty placements. It was just a few starts ago that he was going off the 9-5 favorite in the Jerome and since then has either run 9f dirt races (too far) or synthetic/turf races (wrong surface). I think cutting back to this 7f distance is going to be perfect for a colt that showed plenty of promise early in his career including taking the Nashua at Aqueduct last fall.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Spring Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 25-8-6-2 (32%, $2.84); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.89)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 14-3-3-1 (21%, $3.66); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-1 (14%, $2.40)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 60%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 0%
