Colonial Downs takes center stage this afternoon as the main game in town as the summer meet at Saratoga has come to a close. This is a special Wednesday card added to make up for the cancellation of July 12th’s racing. The racing office is not leaving anything on the table this week as we close out the meet with plenty of lengthy cards starting with the 11 races scheduled for today.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-4-3-2
- Race 2: 3-7-8-4
- Race 3: 4-2-1-3
- Race 4: 9-3-5-7
- Race 5: 1-4-3-5
- Race 6: 7-10-9-8
- Race 7: 7-10-1-5
- Race 8: 4-2-11-5
- Race 9: 3-10-4-9
- Race 10: 13-9-10-4
- Race 11: 4-5-9-12
Colonial Downs Race 2: Donate Life (#3) at 5-2 or higher
The likely favorite in this spot is one I feel is destined to be a maiden for a long time. Splash of Jack (#8) was supposed to win last time at 3-5 when meeting a pretty weak group of VA-Restricted maiden special weights. He’ll still get bet in this spot with trouble listed in the short comment line and the perceived drop in class now in for a tag. However, I feel like there are a couple suitable alternatives. Granuaile (#7) ran fine racing through traffic to get thirs place at this level last out and the Meyers barn has saddled a couple of winners at this meet already. My top pick is Donate Life (#3) and while he was running for cheaper last time, I don’t necessarily view the open $12.5k M CLM as much different than this $40k event for VA-Restricted company. He nearly got the job done that day and now returns in a spot where he’ll hopefully be a fair price. I trust the Schoenthal operation with these types and I think he can get the jump on the more fancied runners to his outside.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Bodecream (#9) at 7-2 or higher
I am willing to play against the potential favorite in this spot as Bizzee Channel (#6) is likely to take a ton of money on the trainer switch to Jonathan Thomas. There’s no doubt that at his peak, this gray gelding was the most talented horse in this field, but those days of him competing in graded stakes races are long gone and he looks a bit long in the tooth at 8YO. Arnaud Delacour sends out the win machine Dear Santa (#3) who has notched four victories from seven career starts including two over this course last summer. I just worry this is a subtle step up in class and he might prove to be an underlay if vying for favoritism. I think the last raced proved 7YO Bodecream (#9) is in as good of form as ever as he ran down a solid group in an N1X. He’s still eligible for this starter allowance condition and is dangerous to win right back.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Streetcorner (#4) at 1-1 or higher
I’m not trying to beat the favorite in this spot and view Streetcorner (#4) as perhaps the most likely winner on the card. I’ve long thought that going a mile on grass would suit this filly and she finally got a chance to do so last time out. She dueled with the eventual winner into the stretch before tiring in the lane, but it’s worth noting that maiden $40k was slightly tougher than average as part of the Million Day undercard and now she drops in for $12.5k. While usually I’d be put off by a precipitous drop like that, it makes sense when the owner, trainer, and jockey are all chasing meet titles. There also isn’t much competition to latch on to as the rest of this field has already dropped to this level or below in earlier races.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 204-61-38-28 (30%, $1.90); Featured Horses: 60-13-8-9 (22%, $2.31)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 112-28-19-14 (25%, $2.30); Featured Horses: 42-10-5-7 (24%, $2.87)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 50%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%
