Colonial Downs hosts its penultimate card this afternoon with racing beginning at the very specific time of 3:08pm. Last chance to build the bankroll before Saturday’s blockbuster Virginia Derby card that includes six stakes races.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-4-2-1
- Race 2: 5-10-1-4
- Race 3: 3-7-5-2
- Race 4: 5-3-9-4
- Race 5: 3-1-7-4
- Race 6: 7-3-2-4
- Race 7: 1-7-10-4
- Race 8: 1-9-6-8
- Race 9: 7-4-8-6
- Race 10: 2-1-4-7
- Race 11: 12-6-7-3
Colonial Downs Race 5: Gettothstoryimdone (#3) at 3-1 or higher
This race is less appealing now that Queen Valentina (#9) scratched ass she was a favorite I was against. We also lost Ladys Chant (#8) who would’ve been my top pick. Now Daisy My Name (#1) inherits the role as a heavy favorite and I do view her as the horse to beat with her dirt race was arguably the best effort of her career. She drops down the class ladder and might’ve found the right field. I’m not willing to concede the race to her at potentially less than even money so I’ll take a shot with Gettothstoryimdone (#3). This filly put forth a much improved performance first off the claim for the Michael Jones Jr barn. 5.5f was probably a bit too sharp for this daughter of Curlin, so the added sixteenth could get her the victory. This barn is on the rise as I’ve seen him training a few Calumet runners lately.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Abstract Moment (#7) at 5-1 or higher
I have no argument with the fact that both favorites look pretty formidable in this spot. Determind Princess (#3) has been racing against tougher and this drop makes sense as Trombetta is in a pitch battle for the title of leading trainer. She’s Magic (#2) has been racing at a similar level, but those fields at Ellis and Indiana might’ve been slightly tougher than this one, so I think Maker has found the right spot for her. A few of their rivals come out of the same August 15th race at this class level and while Rebel Consort (#8) would be tough to take, I think both Mariano (#6) and Abstract Moment (#7) are worth discussing. This is where trip handicapping gets fun as many will likely prefer Mariano who finished 5th and has a “traffic, steadied 1/8” short comment vs Abstract Moment who finished last. However, I think the trouble for Mariano is overblown, while Abstract Moment had an impossible journey, so much so that I’m willing to put a line through that performance. She was only 5-1 that day, so a good performance was expected, but once she missed the break all chance was lost. I view her as the main pace in the race and if she can break well, I don’t see why her early speed can’t be enough to run this field off their feet.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Backwoods Boogie (#12) at 5-1 or higher
This full field in the nightcap has a lot of what I like to call “filler” in the race as I view only seven of the twelve runners with any semblance of a chance. The two horses likely to vie for favoritism are Mo Rewards (#6) and Opposites Attract (#7). The former tries turf for the first time since being claimed by Jamie Ness. He ran well first off the claim to beat an overmatched field at Delaware on the dirt last time and has plenty of turf races on the go back. Opposites Attract also comes in off a win and while that was an N3L and this is an open $10k event, it’s not like there’s any major dropdowns to be afraid of. Unfortunately, Ajourneytofreedom (#8) scratched as he was the horse I was most against in this spot. I made Backwoods Boogie (#12) the top pick hoping the stretch-out in distance will suit this 7YO gelding. Although, he’s won a turf sprint at this meet, most of his recent races have been come going two turns. He won a similar race to this one at the meet last year, but will need to work out a trip from a difficult outside post.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 223-64-43-30 (29%, $1.80); Featured Horses: 66-16-9-10 (24%, $2.33)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 118-29-20-14 (25%, $2.23); Featured Horses: 44-11-5-7 (25%, $2.85)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 49%; B’s: 29%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%
