There’s about three weeks during the year where my brain is all-in on horse racing and this is one of them due to it being my annual pilgrimage up to Saratoga for the Travers. That didn’t stop me for taking a peek at Colonial Downs this week where I’m including bonus coverage of Thursday’s Claiming Crown Preview card.
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Selections
- Races 1-3: No Picks (JUMP)
- Race 4: 6-3-4-5
- Race 5: 4-6-7-5
- Race 6: 2-6-8-1
- Race 7: 7-1-4-9
- Race 8: 9-8-10-5
- Race 9: 2-8-5-7
- Race 10: 2-8-4-7
- Race 11: 10-6-3-9
- Race 12: 11-6-4-9
Colonial Downs Race 5: Doctor Jeff (#4) at 5-1 or higher
Horses are coming from a few different directions in this starter allowance turf sprint. I’d imagine Sosua Summer (#6) goes off favored shipping in for this event. This 6YO gelding has plenty of races from the past few years that would drown this field, but he has to prove it here for another new barn. Chiseler (#7) is also a very dangerous new face in this spot as he drops out of some tough stakes fields. If he runs the race that he put together at Keeneland back in April, he’ll win here, but his last two efforts don’t inspire confidence. A few of the others exit the same 8/2 race over this course and distance which was won by Incinerator (#5). That colt showed a nice turn of foot to rally from last that day, but I actually like another horse coming out of that spot as my top pick. Doctor Jeff (#4) was put in the uncomfortable position of having to rally along the rail whereas Incinerator got the unencumbered trip down the center of the turf course. I though he ran deceptively well in that spot and see him as a one that could get lost in the wagering here.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Auto Glide (#2) at 2-1 or higher
This event features the most lucrative purse on the card as these guys are competing for $100k going a demanding 9f around one-turn. I’m imagining some pace could develop as both Love Me Not (#1) and Bernin Hot (#8) have garnered their recent victories in wire-to-wire fashion. Of the pair, I much prefer Bernin Hot as he drew better on the outside and I don’t trust Love Me Not to replicate that Parx performance at Colonial for this barn. Cadet Corps (#3) and Certified Loverboy (#7) have probably been facing the toughest company coming into this event, but I was disappointed in how much the former wilted in the lane last time and the latter has shown a propensity to hang on the money. That led me to making Auto Glide (#2) the top pick. I think he can be positioned in the second flight of horses early and get the jump on the closers. Greg Compton and Jaime Rodriguez have been an excellent pair at Colonial this meet and this horse has been in solid form the last three starts. If there’s a crazy longshot worth throwing into the exotics, it’s Welaka (#4) who finally gets a chance on dirt in a reasonable spot and proved he’s in decent form with that win at Presque Isle last out.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 8/16)
All
Top Picks: 129-34-28-19 (26%, $1.72); Featured Horses: 42-9-7-12 (21%, $2.11)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 80-15-21-8 (19%, $1.61); Featured Horses: 31-7-6-8 (23%, $2.45)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 43%; B’s: 36%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
