While we won’t be covering too many of the Colonial Thursday cards in this space other than this one, it’s worth noting their usually unique setup. While they were canceled today, races 1-3 are all steeplechase races and are run before the 12:30 first post of the flat card. That’s why it’ll be odd situation with the action starting with race 4.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 4: 7-8-1-6
- Race 5: 5-6-7-4
- Race 6: 12-9-5-6
- Race 7: 10-3-12-1
- Race 8: 10-12-14-6
- Race 9: 6-4-1-3
- Race 10: 1-9-7-4
- Race 11: 5-8-4-7
Colonial Downs Race 4: Celtic Pride (#7) at 3-2 or higher
While the scratch of Spiralizer (#4) tempers my enthusiasm to play this race as I’m eager to play against Ness runners this meet, I still like Celtic Pride (#7) quite a bit in this spot going out for the first time in the hands of the Angel Rodriguez barn. This outfit has a solid record with new additions when they’ve had time to acclimate to the new program going 5/18 (28%, $4.71 ROI) off a trainer change on the dirt with layoffs of greater than two months. He also projects to be the controlling speed in a race favoring front-runners according to TimeFormUS. The longer price in the race I’ll try to link him up with is Daddy Yankee (#8) for whom I don’t mind the slight cutback to shorter sprint distances.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Montador (#5) at 7-2 or higher
It’s a pretty competitive open maiden special weight to close the card with a ton of possible angles to latch on to. Danner (#4) will try to stretch his speed going a route of ground and is conditioned by the Bailes barn who sent out a winner to open the meet. Mo Jackson (#8) is arguably the most likely winner in this spot for the Tomlinson stable after just missing in a six-figure MSW at Churchill unleashing a furious rally after being setup by a solid pace. The goofy longshot I’ll include in my play will be Interim Analysis (#7) who is a first-time gelding for the Casse barn. I know they dangled him for $50k in his last start, but his figures put him within shouting distance and maybe the ultimate equipment change will give him another step forward. However my top pick is going to be Montador (#5) for the powerful Godolphin operation. While this colt didn’t disgrace himself debuting on the Colonial main track last summer, his pedigree is all turf by versatile sire Nyquist out of Lady Montdore who won the G2-Glens Falls going 11f on turf. This is also an excellent move for the Michael Stidham barn from a very large sample of runners. Over the last five years he’s 16/94 (17%, $3.22 ROI) going dirt-to-turf in maiden races. Plus this horse has an encouraging work pattern, posting bullets on the dirt before one grass breeze then into the entry box. He is also getting first-time Lasix for this start.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Spring Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 25-8-6-2 (32%, $2.84); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.89)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 14-3-3-1 (21%, $3.66); Featured Horses: 7-1-1-1 (14%, $2.40)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 60%; B’s: 28%; C’s: 12%; X’s: 0%
