My first trip to Colonial Downs was for a Virginia Derby day and things looked quite a bit different back then. It was in 2009 and the race was 10 furlongs on turf as part of the short-lived “Grand Slam of Grass.” Battle of Hastings won the race and paid $9.20. I had him on top. I always looked forward to an annual pilgrimage with my dad for the race over the next few years, until Colonial was unfortunately shuttered from 2014-2018. Upon return in 2019 the Virginia Derby admittedly found itself in a tougher spot in the racing calendar. During the hiatus, NYRA began its Turf Triple series and Kentucky Downs racing (and purses) rose to prominence, so there just wasn’t enough 3YO turf routers to go around in late summer. The surface switch and move to the spring is a welcome change for the event as it will put a spotlight on Colonial’s expansive dirt course and allow for a unique one-turn, nine furlong test. Colonial still hosts a substantial turf card in August utilizing the graded stakes events formerly at Arlington, so it’s nice to see the Virginia Derby potentially finding a new niche. Be sure head to the ITM Youtube Channel to check out a video where Mike Pribozie, Will Humphrey and I break down the late Pick 5.
Let’s get to the handicapping!
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-4-5-1
- Race 2: 1-5-2-3
- Race 3: 2-6-5-3
- Race 4: 3-2-1-6
- Race 5: 7-1-4-5
- Race 6: 2-5-6-7
- Race 7: 10-8-5-4
- Race 8: 6-4-8-1
- Race 9: 3-6-4-8
- Race 10: 7-1-5-3
Colonial Downs Race 4: Rina Is Fire (#3) at 3-1 or higher
I can see the public going overboard for Keepsake (#2) in this spot pushing her to steep underlay territory. While it appears Brad Cox has found a soft spot for this filly to break her maiden, I’m worried she’s on her way to developing an innocuous reputation as the proverbial money-burner. I was disappointed in her return effort at Gulfstream as she actually took a step back on the speed figure scale first time as a 3YO. Furthermore the filly that beat her, Blueberry Hill, came back to severely disappoint in her next start finishing last of seven at 4-5. In fact, all three of those to run back out of that race ran a lower speed figure. I prefer her chief rival Rina Is Fire (#3) who nearly broker he maiden at first asking. She drowned the other speed in that race who (also the favorite) who just so happens to return in the second race of the day so it will be worth watching if her form is flattered. I think it’s possible with her modest pedigree and lower-profile connections, a fair price will be offered. While the stock in Gary Capuano’s barn isn’t racing on the big stages of the likes of Brad Cox, his win percentages hold up to scrutiny including with this move in particular sporting a 11/24 (46%, $2.48 ROI) with 2nd-out maidens in dirt sprints.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Sharp Tones (#10) at 8-1 or higher
This race is one of the more wide open events on Saturday’s program. Like I’ve mentioned in other spaces, I’m willing to let the Jamie Ness barn beat me at this spring meet as his record is 2/16 (13%, $0.64 ROI) with dirt horses at Colonial despite hitting at a high percentage elsewhere. With the presence of two of his trainees drawn on the rail and scheduled to take plenty of money, it makes this race ultra-playable. The horse to beat is arguably Lure Him In (#5) going out for the dangerous ownership group that brought you White Abarrio. His form at Gulfstream is easily good enough to win here, but his price will certainly be depressed with Irad Ortiz Jr aboard. Of the logicals, I prefer Two Eagles River (#8) who stretches out in distance for the Mike Maker barn. Contrary to Ness, Maker has had good success bringing horses to Colonial with a 3/6 (50%, $3.83 ROI) with dirt horses here. He was outsprinted in his two most recent 6f tries, but I think this one-turn mile will suit him perfectly. His lifetime best Beyer came at this distance and he should settle into a nice trip. While I’ll be using him prominently, I’m going to try to get Sharp Tones (#10) home and ultimately made him my top pick. There should be a good amount of speed in this race and these elongated one-turn races have a propensity for prioritizing stamina. This Tonalist gelding looks like he can run all day and I really was impressed by the stern rally he made in his most recent start. Even though this already represents a step up in class, connections had entered him in an even tougher spot than this but opted to scratch after Book’em Danno also showed up in the entry box. Look for this guy to be rolling home late.
Colonial Downs Race 9: American Promise (#3) at 7-1 or higher
When this race was drawn, I was thinking I would be more against Baffert’s Getaway Car (#6) than I ultimately ended up being. After the scratch of John Hancock, it just looks like he should get a perfect stalking trip perched outside the other speed in the race. While he might not have the stamina to get the 10f of the Kentucky Derby, I do think as a progeny of Curlin he can see out this 9f race. However, I think it would be foolish to discount the chances of the primary speed horse American Promise (#3) in this spot. This chestnut son of Justify has shown that when he’s allowed to coast along on the front end, he can put forth a big performance as evidenced by a field-best 95 Beyer in his maiden score three-back. I’m willing to forgive each of the last two starts as he broke terribly and rushed up in the Southwest and was never given a chance to get near the lead in the Risen Star. Based on Getaway Car’s most recent two drills, it doesn’t seem like he’s being prepared to quarter-horse to the front end which would allow American Promise to have everything his own way. I’m somewhat against Rapture (#7) in this spot simply because I don’t think he’ll offer the necessary value given he’s likely to be a clear second choice with Prat/Cox in his corner. His maiden score was impressive and it’s a feather in his cap to be proven a route of ground, but I’m not willing to stomach 5-2 or less on this step up in class. If the pace melts down, Omaha Omaha (#4) will have the best closing kick and while I think he’s a real candidate to hit the board and it would be fitting for a VA-Bred to win this race, I think his rally will come up short. I could use Authentic Gallop (#8) somewhere in my plays off that determined win last out, but prefer American Promise with my perceived view of this race shape.
Colonial Downs Race 10: Deadpan (#7) at 9-2 or higher
The short-but-sweet spring meet comes to a close here with an expensive N1X allowance and all eyes will be on Supreme Law (#6) who comes into this race off two powerhouse victories with 93 & 100 Beyers respectively. I’ve already espoused my recommendation against Jamie Ness horses at this meet so this spot will be no different. While his best performance will win here, I’m playing against that happening given the change in scenery. Of those with speed I like Protege (#5) a bit. He goes out for the same solid human connections as Lure Him In from race 7 but at least this one will be a fair price. However, I think this pace could really heat up which makes Mikealicious (#1) very dangerous to close them all down late. This guy won his last start over dirt and will relish the distance more than most in this field plus I’ve already lauded the praises of Mike Maker’s Colonial dirt record. My top pick will also appreciate if they’re moving up front and that’s Deadpan (#7) who has a lot of changes going on for him. He was purchased for $55k out of the Keeneland Digital Sale by VA-based connections who like to win at Colonial. Brittany Russell has fantastic numbers first-off a trainer switch in dirt routes posting a record of 15/46 (33%, $2.70 ROI). While this gelding has never raced over this surface, there’s a couple reasons to believe he could relish it. While his dam was unraced and has much more of a turf pedigree, her best foal to date was Calibrate who banked nearly $500k racing primarily as a dirt router. Maybe more importantly, the first recorded work for the new barn was a bullet drill at Laurel back on Feb 5. It takes talent to win an open MSW at Keeneland and if he can transfer that talent to dirt, connections will be pleased they brought him back here.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 246-74-47-30 (30%, $1.95); Featured Horses: 73-18-10-10 (25%, $2.24)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 131-32-23-14 (24%, $2.25); Featured Horses: 48-11-6-7 (23%, $2.62)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 17%; X’s: 4%
