The biggest day on the racing calendar in Virginia has arrived as top connections flock to Colonial Downs for their annual “Festival of Racing.” The card is highlighted by three marquee turf events that were formerly run at Arlington Park. While the reason for those events being here is bittersweet, I can’t think of a better turf course to host these renowned races. While, international participation in these stakes has fallen off since the switch to Colonial, there’s a very solid group of domestic runners scheduled to go.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 10-12-4-8
- Race 2: 6-8-1-2
- Race 3: 8-3-1-10
- Race 4: 1-4-7-6
- Race 5: 8-7-5-2
- Race 6: 9-2-5-4
- Race 7: 5-10-9-8
- Race 8: 9-14-13-8
- Race 9: 7-3-9-6
- Race 10: 9-7-3-5
- Race 11: 4-6-1-7
- Race 12: 5-1-10-7
Colonial Downs Race 3: On My Time (#8) at 9-2 or higher
It’s clear that Charlotte’s Cay (#3) will be plenty tough in this maiden special weight event as she turns back to a 6f sprint after tiring from quick fractions in her route try last out. There’s other speed on paper and while she passed a few horses in her debut, she’ll have to prove capable of rating at a short price. Both Champagne Brunch (#1) and Vinalia (GB) (#7) have run competitive figures with the favorite, but there’s not much upside there as they’re a combined 0/9 in turf sprints. I made On My Time (#8) the top pick in this spot hoping this 6f distance will suit her. She was a part of some pretty quick paces going long in each of her two starts this year and now should be able to settle in a nice outside stalking position in this event. Her best two lifetime finishes were in the shortest two races of her career, so the change in distance might be all she needed here.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Illuminaire (#5) at 7-2 or higher
The All Stakes Late Pick 5 kicks off with the Reigh Count Stakes named for the 1928 Kentucky Derby winner who was bred in Virginia and also sired Triple Crown winner Count Fleet. I’m not enthralled with the chances of ML favorite Bracket Buster (#7) as he returns from a lengthy layoff to kick off his 4YO campaign here. He accomplished a great deal in his sophomore season including a G3 win and a 2nd in the Travers, but this just seems like a race to get him back going. Furthermore, Vikki Oliver is 0/10 with only 2 ITM with horses returning off 180+ day layoffs on the dirt. In my opinion, the horse to beat in this 7f dirt sprint is Verifire (#10) as he returns to the scene of his eye-catching debut win last spring. After rattling off three wins to start his career, something must have gone amiss in the H. Allen Jerkens as he was sidelined following that abysmal effort. He got back on track second-off the bench last out and finds himself with an excellent post that will provide Manny Franco with options. My only concern is that the 7-2 ML price will not hold up and I can foresee him going off the favorite at under 2-1. I’m going to take a shot with Illuminare (#5) in this spot hoping he can get back to that effort two-back that saw him dominate pretty solid allowance company at Keeneland. I’m willing to forgive the subpar effort in the True North last time as he didn’t get out of the gate super clean, but more importantly that was a salty group ahead of him. I like that he has a win over the course and distance earlier this year and Tyler Gaffalione should be able to position him to get first run on the ML fav and true closer Crazy Mason (#8). For a penny, I could see using Celtic Contender (#9) in the rare event they leave him alone on the front end. I ultimately couldn’t put him on top due to his last two efforts, but three-back could be good enough to compete.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Isivunguvungu (SAf) (#9) at 8-1 or higher
There are 14 scheduled to go for the Van Clief Stakes and while it remains to be seen if they’ll all go due to some cross-entering, it’s cool that so many submitted through the entry box. I don’t have a major argument with those that think My Boy Prince (#13) is the most likely winner in this spot as he gets back to sprinting after a failed route try in the Kelso last out. His pair of wins and even the 4th place finish in the Turf Sprint on the Derby undercard would probably win this, but I just couldn’t take a short price in a big field turf sprint given his last two efforts. Governor Sam (#12) would be the logical alternative given his facile win last time and the fact he’s had success over this course and distance in the past, but this field is much tougher than the one he faced at Monmouth last time and he’ll have to deal with pace pressure for an additional sixteenth of a mile. The presence of both Quereme Pass (Arg) (#8) and Nothing Better (#10) in this race would ensure a fast pace, but be aware that if one of them happens to scratch the other becomes very dangerous to wire this field. I nearly made Chasing Liberty (#14) the top choice in this spot as I feel this 4YO still has some upside as a turf sprinter. He showed a nice turn of foot to be in the win photo in two Laurel stakes races and I don’t think he had the most comfortable opportunity to rally through traffic in the Harvey Pack last out. That closing kick could come in handy if they cook up front and I like that Manny Franco picks up the mount. However, I went with a bit of a wildcard for my top pick in this spot. Isivunguvungu (SAf) (#9) showed some significant promise in his two 2024 U.S. starts winning over this course and distance in the Da Hoss Stakes before testing the BC Turf Sprint. Despite a 7th place finish, I actually think that effort might be the best line of form of anyone in this race as he was close to a supersonic pace set by Cogburn before being beaten only 2L for all the money despite a slight steady near the wire. His 2025 campaign was one to forget as he never got back on track after a failed overseas trip, but he looked good winning off the bench at Laurel in June. While a repeat of that effort won’t get him much of anything in this spot, I’m banking on him stepping forward second off the bench for a top barn.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Gimme a Nother (SAf) (#9) at 5-2 or higher
My main opinion in the Beverly D is that Stellify (#8) isn’t a good wager as the favorite in this spot. Her competitive advantage that led to her four-race win streak in 2025 was being able to control the pace at marathon distances, but there’s plenty of others faster than her early given this is only 9.5f. While Brad Cox trainees don’t usually need a start, I can see this being a jumping off point before returning to longer races later in the year. I think Gimme a Nother (SAf) (#9) is in raging form this year and merely a repeat of her last effort will get it done against this group. She was able to bully her competition in the G3-Eatontown which included third-place finisher Grayosh who validated the figure with her win in the Matchmaker last weekend. Her 2025 form wasn’t bad either as she was knocking heads with Eclipse Award winner She Feels Pretty. I’ll be trying to link her up in exactas with a pair of 8-1 shots on the ML in Somethinabouther (#3) and Pin Up Betty (#7). The former hasn’t tried a distance this far yet, but shapes to appreciate it and has solid connections in her corner with Gaffalione/Walsh and while I’m not sure we’ll get that price on Pin Up Betty, she seems to be a very logical contender off her 2026 form. I could even throw in a saver exacta using Crevalle d’Oro (#5) who has to take her form outside of Gulfstream, but has a few races that could compete here.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Integration (#4) at 7-2 or higher
While there aren’t any international raiders amongst the Million entrants this year, it’s still a very interesting group of participants. The key to the race is deciding what to make of Burnham Square (#5) from a few different vantage points. A) Is it concerning how hard he had to work to win last time? B) Will he be as effective at 10f as he has been around three turns? C) What will his final price be given the significant figure advantage he possesses? My answer to those three would be A) Yes, B) Maybe, C) lower than 2-1. Given those factors plus the fact this is by far the toughest group he’s faced, I’ll take a shot against him. I could make a pretty cogent case for Dresden Row (#1) and Test Score (#6) as the horses to beat given the tactical speed the former possesses and the latter has run really well in two of his last three. I could even make a case Mercante (#7) is overlooked at 12-1 on the morning line, but could see that one ending up racing at Ellis. I will not be making a case for last year’s winner Fort Washington (#3) as I don’t believe the Shug McGaughey trainee is in as good of form this year as he came into this race in 2025. I landed on his stablemate Integration (#4) as this veteran is hoping the third time is the charm contesting the Arlington Million. It seems like from day one, this colt was cut out to win this race given he began his career 2/2 over the Colonial lawn. He ran into a buzzsaw in his 2024 attempt at this race defeated by an in-form Nations Pride and was admittedly dismal in the race last year. However, that race came as the 15th race of a career without a significant break in action which he was given in the back-half of 2025. His 2026 form is not sparkling, but the belated rally he showed in the Manhattan last time give me hope he’s still the same horse and he appears to have been working well since. I just believe this will finally be the time to get a fair price on this runner who has been ultra-popular at the windows in the past.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/29)
All
Top Picks: 61-17-11-14 (28%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 19-5-4-4 (26%, $2.81)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 45-13-5-12 (29%, $2.30); Featured Horses: 16-4-2-4 (25%, $3.14)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 58%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 10%; X’s: 6%
