Cross Country Pick-5 Analysis – 7/21/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Cross-Country Pick-5 begins with Race 6 at Saratoga this Sunday, kicking off at 3:50 PM (EDT). I like this sequence today because I think there are some vulnerable shorter priced runners in three of the five legs. The smallest payout for this wager during the current Saratoga meet has been $2,742.25 and this weeks payouts were around $4,000 for both Friday and Saturday. 

Leg A: Saratoga, Race 6:

We’ll kick things off with a $25K N3L claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. I’m having a tough time making a case for the longshots in this spot, so the three shorter prices seem to make the most sense. Briterdayzahead (#2) showed a lot of promise earlier in his career, but there have been some gaps in his recent form lines and his last few starts have been subpar. He was gelded after finishing last of nine in a good N2X allowance at Churchill at the end of May. Sharp brings him here and makes what feels like a necessary drop in class. I think he’s a candidate to rebound at this level. While I don’t love the distance for him, Warrior Richard (#3) runs consistent figures and has been doing so against better opponents. He’s been on a steady diet of starter allowance races lately, but this class relief feels needed at this point. He hasn’t won a race since last April, but that was when he was entered in a $32K claiming race. This is the lowest level of competition yet for him. Whenlovetakesover (#5) has two wins in his last five starts, which is not too bad when considering the group he’s up against. He faltered in the mud at Pimlico and struggled on the turf at Monmouth when running in N1X allowance races. He drops back to the claiming ranks and should find himself on a fast dirt track once again.

Leg B: Monmouth Park, Race 8:

The featured race from New Jersey this afternoon is an optional $50K claiming/conditioned allowance race. Horses that race not running with the tag must either qualify under the N3X condition, or they can not have won a race in six months. I’ve been a fan of Recruiter (#4) for quite some time, and I think he has a big shot in this race. He started off his career with four straight wins in dirt sprint races, winning two stakes along the way. He took a shot in the Gotham and wilted in the mud after being on the front end with a wicked tempo. He spent the rest of his three year old campaign trying to figure some things out. He came back in a tough spot at Laurel and finished second to a runaway winner, while putting up a career top speed figure. He has two sharp works since and now makes his second start off the layoff for Cathal Lynch, who has brought many live runners to town throughout this meet so far. I live what I’m seeing from Gabriel Maldanado, who rides this Army Mule gelding for the first time. 

Leg C: Saratoga Race 7:

Two year old fillies will try two turns on the grass in the maiden special weight contest. I tend to prefer experienced runners in these baby route races, but most of the runners with races under their belts are stuck on the AE list. Panache (#7) makes a lot of sense for Cherie DeVaux. The dam didn’t do much on the racetrack and this is her first foal to race. She was slow to break from the gate in a fast maiden special weight at Churchill on the dirt last month. DeVaux entered this daughter of Not This Time at Ellis, but she was stuck in post 15 on the AE list there. Shotgun Hottie races in the Shuvee earlier in the card, so DeVaux already has on Keeneland based runner making the trip to Saratoga. Her barn has been off to a hot start, winning with four of her first ten starters. Not This Time has 16% winners with two year olds on the grass in the last five years, so I think we’ll see improvement here. While I don’t love the post, I think Ready to Battle (#10) is a live longshot in her debut. She is owned by Gary Barber and trained by Mark Casse, the same connections as her sire, War of Will. So far, War of Will has sired 10 horses that have started 10 times on the turf. Two of them were winners and five others finished in the money. War of Will was a stakes winner on the dirt and the turf and the dam foaled a horse named Joe, who is a stakes winner on the turf and dirt in Maryland. This barn is capable of getting horses ready to run in these two turn route races on debut and they’re off to a red hot start at this meet. They sent out Pounce to win the Grade 3 Lake George on the turf yesterday. Virgin Colada (#2) draws the rail for her debut. She’s a More Than Ready filly making her debut for Chad Brown, who has great numbers with debuting runners on the turf at two turns. Her full brother has shown little in his career, but I do think the fact that Brown is training this filly means something. The works are solid and Prat continues to ride exceptionally well at this meet. I’ll also include Running Away (#5), who may be a pace presence in this race. The dam’s other runners were best in turf sprints, so it’s a little surprising that Ward has this Gun Runner filly in a two turn race on the turf. His great numbers with firsters drop significantly when they start off at a route. However, he’s still capable of getting them ready and if this one winds up on the lead, that might not be the worst thing in the world. 

Leg D: Monmouth Park, Race 9:

This is a $25K starter allowance going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. There are no extra conditions, other than to be eligible for this race, a horse must have had at least one start in a race while entered for a $25K claiming tag or less. It Can Be Done (#6) has won two straight and three of his last four starts on the turf. Gregory Sacco has this six year old Temple City gelding in the best form of his career at the moment. Being on the lead was a plus yesterday and early speed is his game. He’s going to have to deal with Tatanka (#8) in the early going, but having inside position on that runner should be an edge. Mailman Money (#3) was a winner on this course two starts back, when he handily won an open $22K-$18K claiming race. He cut back to a seven furlong dirt sprint at this level in New York where he had no interest. He gets back on the grass, and he could potentially sit a sweet trip, just off the leaders, waiting to tip out. We saw a runner named Cecile add blinkers and go to the front to win an allowance race in gate to wire fashion yesterday. Jose D’Angelo is bringing back Space Launch (#5) quickly, but he’s adding blinkers while dropping him in class. He was eighth against a strong field at Saratoga last out, so he’s getting class relief in this spot. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of trip he’s going to get here, but I do think the equipment change for a sharp barn is a reason to consider him in this spot. 

Leg E: Saratoga, Race 8:

The final leg of this sequence is a N1X allowance race for New York bred fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the Mellon Turf Course. I’m going to try to beat the morning line favorite, and get out of this race using only two runners. I think Awesome Czech (#3) is the one to beat in this race. She ended her two year old season with a narrow defeat in the Tepin Stakes at Aqueduct. She made her three year old debut  in the Wild Applause Stakes last month where she ran into Oversubscribed, who was the runner up in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes yesterday. I thought she ran well that day, finishing 4th behind some decent fillies in open company. Her lone start in state bred company on the turf was her maiden breaking score back in September. I think there’s a good chance that she clears this condition today. I’ll use Busy Morning (#8) as the backup in this race. Irad Ortiz will take the mount for Jorge Abreu as she returns to a two turn race. She tried a six furlong sprint in her return to New York last month and she finished in the middle of the pace in open starter allowance company. She has run three times in two turn races on the turf in her career and has a win, a second, and a third place finish to show for it. She’ll likely be forwardly placed, which probably isn’t a bad thing with this group.