UPDATE: Since Monmouth Park has cancelled their card this afternoon due to excessive heat, this wager will not be offered this afternoon.
First post for this sequence today is 4:22 PM (EDT), which is anchored by a pair of Grade 2 Stakes races at Saratoga. Payouts continue to be strong for this wager with a $0.50 base and a player friendly takeout.
Leg A: Monmouth Park Race 6:
The first leg of the Cross Country Pick-5 this afternoon is a beaten $50K-$40K claiming race for fillies and mares, sprinting six furlongs. Five of the eight runners in this race are three year old fillies with multiple wins on their resumes. Of the other three runners that qualified under the N2L condition, Violets Smile (#1) is a four year old and the other two runners are three. There’s several that want to be forward in this race, so assuming horses are closing well on this course once again, I think Lovely Charm (#3) has a big chance to win again. She closed from off the pace to win a beaten $30K-$25K claiming race here last month. When you draw a line through her two turn race at Delaware, she has had a nice progression of sprint races since tossing the rider in her second career start in February. Claudio Gonzalez continues to win races in bunches at this meet, and I think we’re going to see another big effort from his Irish War Cry filly today. For Sale (#7) is based here but cross-entered in an allowance sprint on the Tapeta at Gulfstream this afternoon. While the purse is bigger down there, I think she might have a better chance of winning with this group. She showed a lot of promise at Parx at the end of her two year old campaign, winning her last two starts of 2023. She has been on grass for her two local tries, but the way the course has been playing at 5 ½ furlongs on grass here really isn’t conducive to her running style. Paco Lopez taking the mount for Joe Orseno is a plus, and at 6-1, I think she’s more playable than some of the shorter prices here.
Leg B: Saratoga Race 7:
There’s only seven runners in this state bred N1X allowance race for fillies and mares, but there’s not much separating this bunch. I don’t love the favorite in this spot, so I’m going to try to go four deep to beat her. I think Five to Two (#1) is going to be overbet after putting up a decent figure with $50K claimers last out. I don’t love playing back horses that are claimed off Linda Rice, and her prior efforts at this level were nothing special. Michelle Giangulio has Maggie T (#6) in good form coming into this race. She was second at this distance when facing open $20K claimers at Belmont at the Big A last month. She has four starts and four second palace finishes at this seven furlong distance and she has more early speed than many in here. I don’t think the pace will be that aggressive early on, so she might have a strong chance while facing a soft field for this condition. Carol T (#7) has two strong efforts in her last three starts, breaking her maiden three starts ago. She wanted nothing to do with the sloppy course in the Bouwerie, so in the event of a pop-up storm that could cause an off-track, she would be one I’d downgrade. However, on a fast surface, I think she is a contender with this group, coming off a decent third place effort in her latest try. Big Hazel (#4) was second in that same race, and while she isn’t the most consistent runner here, I do think she’s much better than what she showed last time out. She faced a much better field for this condition in her last start and she came up empty. Donk shows confidence by keeping her at this level. I think the seven furlong distance of this race might be to her liking as well. Foxy Cara (#5) might not have the highest ceiling in this spot, but I do think it’s fair to say that she has the highest floor. She runs consistent figures every time and her last start at this distance was a convincing maiden score in the winter at Aqueduct. One thing to note, if For Sale were to scratch out of the first leg of this sequence at Monmouth (cross-entered), I’d be comfortable using my top pick as a single in that race and just punching the ALL button here.
Leg C: Monmouth Park Race 7:
The featured race at Monmouth is a state bred optional $15K claiming/N1R allowance. Leo Monte (#6) is going to be the big favorite in this race, mainly because we pretty much know what kind of effort we’re going to get out of him. He has multiple wins at this condition, but he’s eligible to run at this level each year until he gets a win, as long as he runs for the $15K claiming tag. If he’s going to lose this race, someone is almost definitely going to have to run a career best race. So the question becomes, who could be a candidate to run that kind of race, and then, would the odds disparity between that runner and Leo Monte be worth the risk? I think the horse most likely to be able to run a career top figure would be Gold Trust (#8). He debuted on the dirt in a sprint race, but that was clearly a race designed to set him up for his next start, which was a turf route where he was a clear winner over Legendary Thunder (#3). He was slow to find his best stride at this level when he made his last start, but he was moving well late to split the field and finish 5th. He has to make up five lengths of Leo Monte if he wants to beat him today. Falling so far off the early pace, which was mildly aggressive that day, didn’t help his cause. He ran a better race when breaking from an outside post, and I think that will benefit him today. He only has three races under his belt, so he could definitely continue to improve. His dam produced a stakes winner at this distance on the turf at Saratoga, so I think there’s a higher ceiling from a pedigree standpoint compared to some of the others as well. I’m thinking if Leo Monte is sitting there around even money and if his odds float up to closer to 5-1, that would be the kind of odds disparity that I’m looking for to get proper value.
Leg D: Saratoga Race 8, The Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational:
The top two finishers from the Belmont Oaks last month are back to battle in this Grade 2 contest. Cinderella’s Dream (#1) came with a powerful late rally to get up in time over Segesta (#6), who did all of the heavy lifting on the front end that day. There’s a little different dynamic in this race with the presence of Macanga (#4), who appears destined to be the pacesetter. Segesta likes to be forward, but I don’t think she was as comfortable on the front end as she was when she stalked the pacesetter in the Wonder Again two starts ago. She’s likely going to get first run on Cinderella’s Dream, who figures to be flying home late from the back of the pack once again. I think there is a decent chance that the improving Segesta could turn the tables on her rival, but I’ll be using both of these fillies on my tickets.
Leg E: Saratoga Race 9, The Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes:
The payout leg in this wager feels like a wide open contest for three year olds, going one mile on the turf. I think Please Advise (#1) has a decent chance to upset this Grade 2 field. He ended his two year old campaign with a win in the Atlantic Beach Stakes at Aqueduct. He was given a few months off and he came back with a strong effort to be third in the English Channel Stakes at Gulfstream in May. He ran in the Penn Mile two starts back where he had a tough trip. He typically likes to sit off the pace, but that firm course at Penn National was hard to make up too much ground on. Castellano tried to put him into the race early, but he was forced to take up sharply going into the first turn. He lost some position and was forced to be wide. He moved early to challenge the leaders, going three wide on the far turn, but he failed to sustain his bid. He came back and was pace compromised in the Grade 3 Manila Stakes at Belmont at the Big A where the front-runners were allowed to walk early in that mile contest. With both Barksdale (#7) and Army Officer (#8) in the outside stalls for this race, I expect there to be a more honest pace today. Please Advise was gelded since his last start and he gets a major rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, who has won 7 of the 14 stakes that he’s ridden in at this meet so far. 12 of those 14 runners have finished in the money, so you can’t get much better here right now. I think there are a lot of conditions in place for this modestly bred gelding to run a much better race today. Neat (#4) got the job done in the Manila, giving him three wins in four starts the year. His lone stumble came in the American Turf on Derby Day where he didn’t get a great trip when facing a loaded field. He likes to be forward and the addition of Barksdale to this field really clouds the pace scenario. That horse set the breakneck pace on the dirt in Woody Stephens two back, going 43 seconds flat for the first half mile. While you never know if that kind of speed is going to translate to the turf, he could be one of those run-off horses that opens a big lead and tries to hold on throughout the length of the stretch. You always wonder how a horse that likes to be close to the front is going to respond to that situation. He’s been too good to leave off the ticket, but at short odds, I do have a few concerns. Army Officer seems to be more adaptable if there would be that kind of runaway leader. He sat eight lengths off the pace when clearing the N1X condition in June on this course. He’s also run credible races when he’s been closer to the front end. I trust Frankie Dettori to have him in a good spot, regardless of the pace scenario.
