While it looks like a nice day at the Jersey Shore, weather could be a factor at Saratoga for this wager this afternoon. The sequence begins with the 7th race at Monmouth (4:04 PM, EDT) and it will conclude with a pair of graded stakes races on the dirt at the Spa.
Leg A: Monmouth Park, Race 7:
The Cross Country Pick 5 begins with this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Lord Knows (#3) is a three year old and lone horse in this race with more than two wins. One of those wins came here at this level in his most recent start. He stalked a competitive pace and held on to win by a neck that day. He should be sitting a sweet staling trip just in behind both Spanish Noble (#1). He’s a horse that keeps getting a little bit better each time out. I see him as a logical candidate to repeat at this level. Just For Luck (#12) needs a defection to get into the body of the field, and seeing as how he’s based at Belmont and there’s no guarantee he’s going to run. While it’s likely he’s going to be scratched, he’s a big player in this field should he get the opportunity to run. Post 10 is no picnic, but if he runs back to his Gulfstream form, that may not matter. I think he’s another runner that should be able to sit a favorable trip, assuming I don’t love the drop, three starts after being claimed for $35K, but I do think he makes a ton of sense in this race. I liked both Spanish Noble and Shogun Be Fast (#4), but I was concerned about them facing each other because they have the same front end running style. However, Shogun Be Fast was declared a scratch, so I’m going to put Spanish Noble on this ticket. Spanish Noble was too bad to be to true last out, and I do like that he’s wheeling back three weeks later after completely misfiring as the favorite at this level last out. He’s drawn the rail and his main competition for the early lead is now gone. Forward trips were good on this course last weekend, so he could run away and hide with this group.
Leg B: Saratoga Race 9:
The lone turf race from New York in this sequence is a N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the Inner Turf Course. I think Irad Ortiz might be very aggressive aboard Laurel Valley (#10) from the outside post in this race. He wants to be forward, and while there are others in this race that could challenge for the lead, I think Irad is going to send him from the jump. He’d prefer a firm turf course, so assuming this race can go forward before any wet weather today will be important when considering him as the top pick. I’ve seen too many turf races in New York where the other riders allow an uncontested leader to set dawdling fractions, so as a result, he’s going to be on my tickets. His stablemate, Sambaru (#9) fits on figures, but he keeps coming up a bit short at this level. This field isn;t as deep as some of the other groups that he’s seen at this condition, so it could be a case of it being his turn, however, as the favorite, I think it’s worth trying to beat him. Instead, I’ll include Unleash the Power (#5), who was a winner on this course with starter allowance company last time out. That was his first score since breaking his maiden at Ellis in July of 2022. I do like that he got that confidence builder and I think he can sit a good stalking trip behind the front-runners in this spot.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 8:
Both King of Hollywood (#3) and Wandering West (#7) have had strong meets. King of Hollywood has had his picture taken four times at this meet and Wandering West has had three times in the Winner’s Circle. Each runner has a victory at the expense of their rival. From a pace standpoint, I think King of Hollywood has an edge over Wandering West in this race. There’s not much speed signed on, so King of Hollywood, who likes to be forward, should be able to get the lead without over-exerting himself. Should someone challenge him for that early spot, that might benefit Wandering West. However, the fact that King of Hollywood ran as well as he did when there was a runaway leader, tells me that he’s more versatile than I gave him credit for. I just think he can win this race in too many different ways. Wandering West likely is hoping that the inside speed bias from last week is gone and he’s likely wishing that either Festinate (#1) or English Bob (#8) can really push the tempo. I do think it’s interesting that he’s been gelded since his last start. I think these are the two that will be deciding the outcome to this race.
Leg D: Saratoga Race 10, The Grade 3 Prioress Stakes:
The Spinaway Stakes, which is the next race in the sequence, is the Grade 1 race that anchors this card at Saratoga. Last year’s Spinaway winner, Brightwork (#9), makes her delayed seasonal debut in today’s six furlong sprint race. She clearly likes this track and she’s been working well for her return. She’s undefeated in one turn races as she struggled in both the Alcibiades and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in her last two starts last year. She’s a three time stakes winner and a filly that could add some spice to a competitive division. This feels like a race that could set her up nicely for the Raven Run at Keeneland next month. Two Sharp (#7) is the morning line favorite after a monster score in her second career start. Rigney Racing paid close to one million dollars for this Twirling Candy filly back in 2022. She didn’t make it to the track as a two year old. She was a little green in her debut at Churchill, but she put things together quickly when breaking her maiden for fun here last month. I do think it’s important to note that her first two races came with race day Lasix administered. She won’t be eligible to receive that for this stakes race. While that might not matter at all, it’s worth considering because she’s likely going to even money or less in this race. I think it’s worth trying to beat her. I might go back to use her on a smaller ticket as a saver, but I’d rather roll the dice with Miuccia (#1) at longer odds on this ticket. She comes back to six furlongs after faltering in the Azalea at Gulfstream when going seven furlongs in her last start. She was excellent when winning the Game Face Stakes two back at this distance at Gulfstream, which was her first race without receiving race day medication. Irad Ortiz taking this mount over Tricky Temper (#3), who he rode to victory here two starts ago, tells me that he thinks this horse has some ability. Her local drills are solid, including a 47:4 bullet work here last Saturday.
Leg E: Saratoga, Race 11, The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes:
11 two year old fillies are entered in this seven furlong test. John Ortiz and Luis Saez teamed up to win this race last year with Brightwork, and they’ll send out the morning line favorite, Quietside (#11) today. She was one of the more impressive maiden winners at this meet, drawing off to win by over six lengths when making her debut last month. John Ortiz has been very selective with the runners he has brought to the Spa and as a result, he has five wins with eight starters at this meet. Clearly this filly showed that she was a standout in his barn. Her pedigree suggests the added furlong should be well within her scope and sequence. Her main opponent, The Queens M G (#8) will be trying to sweep the two year old dirt stakes races at Saratoga after winning the Schuylerville and the Adirondack. Neither race was particularly strong this year, but she was much the best in both. Saffie Joseph and Dyland Davis have both had stronger than average meets. This filly is quite comfortable stalking a strong pace and making her move on the turn. She paired her last two Beyer figures, so she’s a candidate to move forward as she stretches out to seven furlongs today. Slang (#5) is a longer priced option that has a shot in this race. Toss her last where she was pulled up in the Schuylerville. She’s had five workouts since that race, including one fifteen days after taking a ride in the equine ambulance. She was very sharp in the morning two weeks ago and had a solid maintenance drill leading up to this race. I think she might be overlooked because of her last race, however, her maiden score two starts back was strong.
