Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Captain Shreve (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 6-1-5
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a rare turf debut runner and stands only 1 for 29 (3%) in the past four years despite his lofty, solid numbers over the main track. 6-Smashing Machine is by multiple Grade 1 winner Charlatan, who gets 19% with 3-year-old & up firsters and the same 19% with grass sprinters. This sophomore colt has trained sharply over the local footing, and perhaps he can be one of the exceptions. 1-Michael (by Maclean’s Music) goes out for trainer Peter Miller and lures jockey Joel Rosario. This jockey-trainer combo has teamed up for their last two turf sprint debut winners, including Off in the Corner (8/14;5-1) and Weekend Vibes (6/14;5-1). 5-Fuzzy Stare ran an ok fourth in his first start over the course on July 23 and can improve for conditioner Isidro Tamayo.
Race #2: Selections: 2-4-6
2-Captain Shreve drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon after flashing some decent positional early zip in all four main track sprint tries for trainer George Papaprodromou. The gelded son of Runhappy returns off a 4 ½-month mini-freshening after a spirited worktab and reunites with Rispoli. 4-Sharons Maxfield hasn’t been out in 11 months but returns as a gelding for today’s $62,500 tag with the addition of Lasix and blinkers. He rallied belatedly on debut for the show spot when last seen back in September for an above-average layoff barn. Blinkers on 6-Flaubert is another class dropper for Drysdale going turf to dirt today, while making his second start off the seven-month layoff. Improvement likely, and he’s nicely situated on the outside of this short field.
Race #3: Selections: 7-2-3
The $30,899 $2 Pick Six carryover begins here. 7-Hurricane Way moves back to turf today while making his third try of the current form cycle and has run equally well over grass as dirt for conditioner Mark Rheinford. The 5-year-old gelding is reunited with winning pilot Armando Ayuso this afternoon. The D’Amato-trained 2-Luck Lucky (Ire) is a logical threat off his most recent runner-up as the beaten favorite back on June 15 when facing a pair of today’s returning rivals. 3-Lucky and Gone was outrun in both his previous grass tries but ships in from Los Al, exiting a 1,000-yard allowance event Aug. 8, and should be quick enough to clear this field, which could ultimately be a dangerous thing.
Race #4: Selections: 1-4-5
1-Billie Holiday hasn’t been seen since last September, when drawing off to a 5 ½-length maiden romp at Santa Anita in start number three. The Grazen filly adds Lasix for her return today and has trained steadily for the Miyadi barn. This optional $20k claiming 1X didn’t come up all that tough. 4-La Silenciosa has solid early zip and makes her second try off the mini-freshening this afternoon for conditioner Victor Garcia after a speed-and-fade on July 30. This filly could prove dangerous if able to shake free like she did in her maiden-breaking score in her second career try last April. 5-Berry Valley shortens back up to a sprint today, specifically 5 ½ furlongs, where she sports a 3-2-1 mark for trainer Librado Barocio.
Race #5: Selections: 1-2-6
1-Autumn Leaves must negotiate the tricky rail draw but debuts for the Sadler barn off a solid and steady worktab. The dark bay filly is by Tiz the Law, who gets an above-average 18% with 3-year-old & up debut runners and 15% with grass sprinters. She lures Rispoli at first-asking. 2-Seeking Attention is an obvious threat off back-to-back grass sprint seconds at this level on May 9 and June 6 at Santa Anita with the field’s best turf Beyers. The daughter of Grade 1 winner Yaupon is back off the mini-freshening and is the filly to beat, having hit the board in four of five lifetime starts. 6-Got the Ring returns sprinting off the 11-month layoff for Miller and ran second here last July going two turns. She adds Lasix this afternoon off a steady work tab at San Luis Rey and gets top turf rider, Hector Berrios.
Race #6: Selections: 7-3-1
A competitive six-furlong main-track claiming sprint features a well-matched field of geldings to kick off the late $3 Pick 3. 7-Tessuto doesn’t have some of the flashier main-track Beyer speed figures as some of the others, but cuts back in distance off the Peter Miller claim and could get the right stalking trip with today’s outside draw. This barn is 4-for-16 (25%) with dirt sprint new acquisitions at this track the past five years. 3-For All Mankind flashed speed and tired at 31-1 when facing considerably better on July 31 for Sadler, but takes a sizable class drop today, second off the bench. The gelding has run well from limited tries over this main track. 1-Central Dispatch shortens back to a sprint today and drops a notch from $50k to $40,0000 claimers for trainer Val Brinkerhoff. The 4-time winning gelding reunites with winning rider Joel Rosario and has the speed to coincide with the rail draw.
Race #7: Selections: 4-1-2
4-Raw Ability drops in for the $100k tag this afternoon, exiting three one-mile minor stakes tries for Sadler. This mare sports the best late pace figure in the field and, according to TimeformUS Pace Projection, the early splits should set up nicely for her late run. 1-Canto Della Terra (Ire) has run well in all three starts since arriving Stateside for D’Amato, which includes two wins and a runner-up finish on July 23. She moves further inside to the rail today, making the third start of the current form cycle, and is undoubtedly the filly to beat this afternoon. 2-Tahini goes two sprints to a route this afternoon, exiting a close-up third in the Daisycutter S. on July 25. The American Pharoah mare’s 88 and 89 last two turf Beyer figures certainly match up well if she can replicate them back around two turns. That’s a bit of a question mark, however.
Race #8: Selections: 2-8-6
Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claimer class dropper 2-Poppi’s Charlie is fast enough to clear this field in the Friday nightcap for trainer Manuel Badillia and should prove tough to reel in late. The June 14 event he exits has produced a pair of next-out winners. 8-No Limit gets the complete makeover this afternoon for conditioner Craig Lewis after being difficult to load on debut and showing brief early foot chasing the leaders before fading on July 19. He drops in for a tag, returns as a first-time gelding, and adds blinkers. Rosario hops aboard and has done well riding for this outfit. The Jorge Periban-trained 6-Stanford Warrior got pinballed and lost the rider at the start when well-backed on debut at Santa Anita back on May 24. That tote action likely indicates ability, and he deserves another chance this afternoon. A must-include for those playing the $3 Late Pick 3 and Pick 5 multi-race exotics.
