Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-East Avenue (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 5-6-1
The 4 for 13 6-year-old gelding 5-Red Flag exits back-to-back wins at Del Mar, where he was claimed from each winning start and now goes out for trainer Mark Glatt. He holds a double-Beyer edge off those two victories with a 95 and 96 figure and is tough to look past for a barn with above-average stats with new acquisitions. The multiple graded stakes-placed 6-Skinner returns off a year layoff for conditioner John Shirreffs off a steady work tab and should rally strongly late. 1-Vlahos ran poorly in his Oct. 5 comeback try for Team O’Neill at 2-1 and is eligible to bounce back here based on his first two efforts to start his career.
Race #2: Selections: 2-1-3
A relatively short but contentious field of fillies and mares line up here for this sprint turf stake. The likely speed of the speed 2-Sassy Nature returns to her preferred five-furlong trip where he’s 4 for 7 and should prove tough to reel in here with an alert break. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 1-Stay and Scam shortens back to five furlongs this afternoon for trainer Doug O’Neill and is a multiple winner over this turf course. Her stablemate 3-Just Nails is (2-2-0) from five starts over the Del Mar grass course and at today’s sprint distance. The 5-year-old mare rarely misfires and switches to Dettori today.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-7
A winner of two straight, 1-Hot Girl Walk has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start as the distances have increased for trainer Carla Gaines, and she has worked five times since taking the Generous Portion Stakes on Sept. 2. 4-Pavel Is Appealing ran to his backing in a professional-looking debut win on Sept. 2 for Team O’Neill over next-out winning Maiden Rizzleberry Rose, who also returns in here for conditioner Steve Knapp. The juvenile filly returned to fire a five-furlong bullet gate drill on Oct. 27. 7-Grateful My Love ran a better-than-looks fifth in her Sept. 28 unveiling for Michael McCarthy when closing from far back. Today’s seven-furlong distance should fit her well, and improvement is likely with Velasquez back for the return mount.
Race #4: Selections: 1-5-6
The Maiden 1-Sabertooth is multiple graded stakes placed and 4 for 4 ITM for trainer Tim Yakteen. The son of Grazen ran well in all three runner-up finishes over this turf course and should work out a favorable off-the-pace ground-saving trip from the rail. 5-Scipio finished a fast-closing third behind both Sabertooth and Artislas in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes on Sept. 8 and should get another live race flow to close into. 6-Supa Speed has run well in both grass starts at Del Mar to begin her career for trainer John Sadler, including a recent runner-up finish in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes sandwiched between next-out winners Thought Process and Sea Runner.
Race #5: Selections: 2-3-5
2-Got’m Cot’m increased his Beyer numbers by nearly 30 points in a much-improved second start for conditioner Val Brinkerhoff. He is dangerous with another forward progression in the all-important third career start. Turf to dirt 3-R Heisman drops out of the G3 Zuma Beach and G1 Del Mar Futurity into this softer spot for trainer Peter Miller and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Herandez. The juvenile colt could catch a live race flow to close into. The stakes-placed 5-Shea Brennan ran on to finish third despite a pre-race mishap when breaking through the starting gate for D’Amato on Oct. 6. The colt switches to Prat this afternoon and merits a long look in here if he can mind his manners. Her stablemate, recent Maiden winner 7-Speedy Wilson, has improved with each subsequent start and should appreciate the stretch-out to seven furlongs.
Race #6: Selections: 2-8-3
The first of five Breeders’ Cup Friday Championship races starts here with the Juvenile Turf Sprint. The multiple graded-stakes-winning 2-Aesterius (Ire) makes his first stateside start off an impressive resume (4-1-0) from six career tries. He looked visually impressive winning the last pair at Doncaster and Longchamp. Trainer Archie Watson is 0 for 3 with his Breeders’ Cup starters, but in his defense, this might be his best chance to date.The lightly raced 2 for 2 8-Ecoro Sieg has looked incredibly sharp and versatile for his Japanese connections. The son of Twirling Candy may be faster than all of these juvenile colts. He whistled six furlongs in 1:07. 1 breaking the track record in his last start. 3-Big Mojo (Ire) has traded punches with the top choice and was just a neck behind in the recent G2 Flying Childers.
Race #7: Selections: 1-3-4
In a race where juvenile fillies have often improved substantially off their recent form and past Beyer figures, 1-Vodka With a Twist is worth a long look at likely double-digit odds for trainer Phil D’Amato. She goes two sprints to a route off a solid race record this afternoon and lures jockey Irad Ortiz. Her sire Thousand Words clicks at 27% with his dirt route prodigy, and this gal drew a cozy post for her first try around two turns. Godolphin’s 3-Immersive is 3 for 3 for trainer Brad Cox and was a sharp winner of the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland on Oct. 4, a race that’s traditionally a main prep for this event. 4-La Cara was a blowout Maiden winner this past summer at Saratoga and recent winner of the G3 Pocahontas at Churchill over a big field. The daughter of Street Sense continues to train smartly. The Japanese-bred 9-American Bikini (Jpn) (by American Pharoah) was a strong gate-to-wire winner of the Yamboshi Sho on Sept. 28 off a two-month freshening and looks primed for a strong try in his first stateside start.
Race #8: Selections 1-4-7
1-Lady Victoria is an undefeated 4 for 4 for trainer Aidan O’Brien, exiting back-to-back Grade 1 scores at Curragh and Newmarket. This daughter of Frankel (GB) is nicely drawn for her U.S. unveiling and will take some beating at likely short odds. 4-Scythian was an 11-1 2 ½-length upset winner of the G2 Miss Grillo at Belmont at the Big A on Oct. 6 for Mott and has enough tactical early zip to work out a favorable trip this afternoon. She continues to improve and worked sharply over the local lawn. The Southern California-based 7-Thought Process sports some of the fastest grass Beyers in this field and has shown strong versatility in all three victories for trainer Phil D’Amato. She’s 3 for 3 at a mile and 2 for 2 at Del Mar.
Race #9: Selections: 1-6-7
1-East Avenue has won both starts by a combined 13 ¼ lengths for conditioner Brendan Walsh and is training exceptionally well leading up to today’s big showdown. He disposed of the highly-touted Ferocious in the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 5, sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (95), and is a deserving favorite here. Of the three well-bred pricey juvenile colts for Team Baffert, 6-Citizen Bull showed a favorably improved Beyer on the stretch-out on Oct. 5 with his victory in the G1 American Pharoah and is eligible to continue to move forward. A strong “best of 51” five-furlong bullet drill in :58.4 on Oct. 26 catches the eye. His stablemate 7-Gaming is 2 for 2 and defeated Citizen Bull in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 8. He’ sregally bred to handle two turns successfully.
Race #10: Selections: 13-4-5
A beaten favorite in the last pair, 13-Henri Matisse (Ire) drew a tough outside post for trainer Aidan O’Brien but could find the firm Del Mar grass course much to his liking. The multiple Grade 2 winner removes the blinkers today, gets world-class rider Ryan Moore, and likely wouldn’t have taken the trek here if not ready to rumble. 4-Al Qudra (Ire) finished a good second behind New Century (GB) in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 14, and that race may have set up this Charlie-Appleby-trained juvenile colt perfectly for his first stateside start. He’s been training smartly at Keeneland for the past six weeks in preparation for this. The undefeated 5-Zula Kingdom exits back-to-back game wins in the Grade 2 Pilgrim and Grade 3 With Anticipation on the East Coast for trainer Chad Brown and looks like a juvenile that thrives on a stretch duel or dog fight. He may be tough to pass if he gets in front in deep stretch. The 2-2 undefeated 1-Satono Carnaval (JPN) has made a strong local appearance since arriving in Southern California and can be any kind.
