Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 11-Rebel’s Romance (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 7-6-1
The lightly raced 7-Invigorated goes dirt to turf off a six-month layoff for new conditioner Michael McCarthy. The colt adds blinkers today and has enough grass pedigree on the dam side to suggest he’ll relish turf. A recent Maiden winner at Del Mar in August, 6-Canada Gate goes dirt to turf this afternoon for new trainer John Sadler. This 3-year-old colt is by Constitution, who gets an average of 13% with his grass route prodigy and Hernandez sticks. 1-Spycatcher finally broke through the Maiden ranks with a sharp score on Sept. 28 after several close-up finishes for trainer Mark Glatt. He may have another forward move in the tank, making his third start off the extended layoff.
Race #2: Selections: 2-3-7
2-Desert Dawn gets some class relief today for trainer Phil D’Amato dropping out of the G1 Clement L. Hirsch and G2 Zenyatta in her last pair of route starts. The 5-year-old mare makes her third start of the form cycle today and likes the Del Mar strip (1-3-1) from seven tries. 3-Hope Road has won three straight for Team Baffert by a combined 15-plus lengths and holds a double Beyer advantage over these fillies and mares. As the 6-5 morning line favorite, she might be worth trying to beat with some other speed types signed on. Her stablemate, 7-Show Card, won her last two stake starts by similar margins and turned in an eye-catching “best of 63” five-furlong bullet drill on Oct. 24.
Race #3: Selections: 8-9-1
8-Nadette (Fr) finished a fast closing second in the Dance Smartly Stakes and has trained well since that effort. The 5-year-old mare is reunited with winning jockey Hector Berrios. 9-Kathmandu (Ire) makes her first stateside start off a three-month layoff and showed her class with a near-miss in the G1 French 1000 Guineas back in May. 1-Aspen Grove (Ire) shortens back up to a mile today and makes the third start of the form cycle for conditioner Jack Sisterson. She exits a decent runner-up try in the G2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita on Oct. 5, and figures to trip out nicely with today’s rail draw and the turnback in distance. The multiple graded stakes winning 3-Fluffy Socks heads back west for trainer Chad Brown and has run well over this local grass course. The 6-year-old mare likes the one-mile trip (3-2-1) from seven tries and is reunited with winning rider Irad Ortiz. She sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (96), with her recent third-place in the G1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland.
Race #4: Selections: 6-4-10
Layoff lines have plagued the Steve Asmussen-trained 6-Society, but she’s tough to beat when on her game. The 5-year-old daughter of Gun Runner has worked extremely well since her G1 win in the Ballerina at Saratoga on August 24 and looks to improve upon her fourth-place finish in this event in 2023. An alert break makes her a strong gate-to-wire threat this afternoon. Seven-furlong specialist and G1 winner 4-Vahva is a major threat for conditioner Cherie DeVaux. The 6 for 14 Gun Runner filly has been training lights-out at Keeneland in preparation for this and projects to get a favorable stalking journey with Irad. 10-Scylla brings a stellar record (5-3-1) from nine career starts into this year’s edition for trainer Bill Mott and finished second to our top choice in the Ballerina. This 4-year-old daughter of Tapit fires every start but will need to work out a trip from her outside draw. 2-One Magic Philly is the “now” horse on the improve for D’Amato and easily disposed of heavy favorite Sweet Azteca in last.
Race #5: Selections: 6-9-12
6-Star of Mystery finished a tough-trip runner-up in the G2 Franklin at Keeneland and has trained smartly since that effort. 9-Cogburn has won six of her last seven sprint tries since switching to turf for trainer Steve Asmussen and has surpassed the Beyer par for this race on multiple occasions. A winner of close to $2.5 million lifetime, this super talented 5-year-old has the versatile running style to adjust to various pace scenarios and is undoubtedly the best of the American runners. The multiple G1 winning 12-Bradsell (GB) has disposed of large, talented fields overseas all year. He will likely thrive over the Southern California firm footing. The South African-bred 10-Isivunguvungu (Saf) was a stakes winner in his lone U.S. start at Colonial Downs on Sept. 7 for conditioner Graham Motion and has fired bullet drill after bullet drill at Fair Hills since that win. The gelding is short on seasoning but has a ton of talent. He’s worth inclusion in your vertical exotics.
Race #6: Selections: 2-9-1
The multiple G1-winning 2-Thorpedo Anna has never been worse than first or second in nine career tries for trainer Ken McPeek and nearly beat the boys at Saratoga in the G1 Travers this past summer. A perfect 3 for 3 at this 1 1/8-mile trip, this stellar filly continues to train like she hasn’t missed a beat despite a taxing 2024 campaign. She is tough to look past despite the low odds. Her biggest threat looks to be Japanese shipper 9-Awesome Result, who is a perfect 7 for 7. This daughter of Justify has seen her Timeform Rating increase with each subsequent start, and she has shown her versatility by winning on multiple graded surfaces. We will see just how good she is on Saturday, with likely her toughest task to date. Blinkers on 1-Candied has faced off and held her own against the toughest Grade 1-caliber gals all year for Pletcher. Perhaps today’s equipment change improves her further.
Race #7: Selections: 11-2-4
11-Rebel’s Romance may be the most likely winner on the Champion Saturday program. The 2022 BC Turf winner has had a sensational 2024 campaign for conditioner Charlie Appleby, notching three Grade 1 victories. The champion gelding is 14 for 21 lifetime, 9 for 12 at today’s 1 ½-mile trip, and banked over $9 million in purse earnings. 2-Emily Upjohn (GB) exits back-to-back third-place finishes in the G1 Prix Vermeille and Network Yorkshire Oaks and draws well here. 4-Luxembourg (Ire) enters here off two subpar sixth-place finishes (which is not ideal) but he is a multiple G1 winner for O’Brien and can bounce back with the winning pilot, Ryan Moore, back in the saddle.
Race #8: Selections: 1-3-9
The 6 for 7 1-Forever Young (Jpn) may have been best in the G1 2024 Kentucky Derby when finishing a troubled trip third and had a perfect prep for this by winning the Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 2. Today’s rail draw might work out favorably for him and he’s looked and trained exceptionally well. The 6 for 7 Epsom Derby winning 3-City of Troy is unproven on dirt but is highly touted as the best colt that conditioner Aidan O’Brien has sent to post. The 3-year-old colt by Triple Crown winner Justify is bred to handle the main track more than any other European champion runner who has excelled on grass and flopped over the American dirt. This talented colt has shown the versatility and agility to adjust to various pace scenarios and trips and still find the wire first. 9-Fierceness looks to be the first BC Juvenile winner to take the Classic for Team Pletcher and Repole Stable. The 3-year-old colt enters as a fresh horse off his game Travers victory and sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (111).
Race #9: Selections: 3-2-7
3-Cinderella’s Dream (GB) is a perfect 5 for 5 with jockey William Buick and undefeated since arriving stateside. The G1 winner figures to sit and blast home late. The speedy 2-Full Count Felicia has won two straight and notched her first Grade 1 score in the EP Taylor at Woodbine on Sept. 14. The 5-year-old mare draws a cozy inside post to help utilize her early zip and has an excellent chance of wiring this field. Jockey Irad Ortiz takes over the irons for trainer Kevin Attard, and this gal has worked very sharply since that last 7-1 mild upset win. 7-Content (Ire) may not have liked the soft going in her last pair of disappointing tries for trainer Aidan O’Brien, but she is eligible to bounce back this afternoon over a dry Southern California course. The 12 for 22 4-War Like Goddess finished third over this grass course in the 2021 edition of the Filly & Mare Turf and, despite being age seven now, has continued to run well for Mott as evidenced by her most recent runner-up effort in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.
Race #10: Selections: 10-11-8
10-Mullikin is one of those rare colts that have performed equally well at both six and seven furlongs for conditioner Rodolphe Brisset. This talented son of Violence has won four straight, including a convincing 5 ¾-length score in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga on August 24, where he earned a strong (105) Beyer figure. He’s continued to train sharply since that winning performance at his home base in Keeneland and arrives in Southern California as one of the top betting choices. Prat lands here and seemingly had some other choices. 11-Skelly is an accomplished and seasoned 5-year-old gelding who has finished first or second in a remarkable 17 of 18 career tries for trainer Steve Asmussen. He has racked up eight triple-digit Beyers throughout his racing career, and according to the TimeformUS pace projector, he may be the fastest out of the gate of this talented field of sprinters. He finished second in his lone Grade 1 attempt in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga two-back, proving he is classy enough to run with this gifted group. 8-Straight No Chaser is super quick out of the gate and was a smashing 6 ¼-length winner of the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Sept. 29 when returning off a four-month freshening. It was an excellent prep for this. The MyRacehorse-owned 5-year-old trained by Dan Blacker has never tried the Del Mar main track but has proven he can fire over multiple surfaces and venues with sharp victories at Oaklawn Park, Pimlico, and the aforementioned Santa Anita Park. He sports the field’s fastest-registered Beyer with a (107) in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Stakes and is dangerous with an alert break.
Race #11: Selections: 7-1-6
7-Porta Fortuna (Ire) has won three straight and looked extra strong in winning the G1 Matron at Leopardstwon in Ireland on Sept. 14. This filly can beat the males. 1-Ramatuelle was an impressive G1 Prix de la Foret winner in her most recent start at Longchamp on Oct. 6 over a bulky field of 16, earning a top 121 Timeform Rating. The 3-year-old Justify filly will be tough in here if able to move forward off that sharp effort for conditioner Christopher Head. 6-Notable Speech (GB) looks to be sitting on a winning race if her recent race pattern stays as it has been for word-class conditioner Charlie Appleby in recent months. The multiple G1 winner should appreciate the firm Del Mar footing. 12-Carl Spackler drew a difficult outside post for his American-based fans but has been on a major tear lately for trainer Chad Brown, having won six of his last seven starts. However, jockey Tyler Gaffallione must work out an advantageous trip to be a serious win threat this afternoon.
Race #12: Selections: 3-14-8
3-Full Serrano (Arg) has run well in both dirt route starts since arriving in the barn of John Sadler and looks like the speed of the speed with Rosario taking over. He had an eye-catching “best of 63” drill in sub :59 at Santa Anita on Oct. 27. 14-Skippylongstocking has yet to win a Grade 1 race but is a true road warrior for trainer Saffie Joseph, having won at multiple venues throughout the country. The 5-year-old sports some of the top Beyers in this field and figures to be perfectly handled by jockey Irad Ortiz from his outside slot. The late-closing 8-Post Time has found a home at today’s one-mile trip for the husband-wife duo of jockey Sheldon Russell and trainer Brittany Russell. A dominating 11 ½-length winner of a small stake at Laurel in his most recent start and multiple G1-placed before that victory, this 4-year-old colt by Frosted should get a live race flow to close into. The Brad Cox-trained 1-Saudi Crown has speed and the rail and has trained well since his August 11 Ellis Park win and prep for this. He will likely be aggressively sent from his inside post by jockey Florent Geroux.
