Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Goatski (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 8-5-7
Blinkers on 8-Uncle Happy makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Phil D’Amato and has plenty of early zip to fall into a favorable trip despite the outside draw. The 4-year-old gelding drops a notch in class to boot. 5-Jimmy Blue Jeans returns to turf today, his preferred footing, and has consistently run some of the top turf Beyer figures in the field. 7-Sbagliato gets yet another rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione, who has moved his tack west with the closure of Ellis for trainer Peter Miller. This gelding is most likely to benefit from a contested early pace if the top pair hook horns early on.
Race #2: Selections: 4-5-2
4-Rousing Jewel goes turf to dirt, making her second start off the claim for trainer Steve Knapp. The 5-time winning mare drops in for a career-low claiming tag of $16k and should find herself on or close to the front today. 5-Tennesseehoneybee goes first off the claim for Sadler, exiting a decisive 2 ½-length win against cheaper when making her Del Mar debut on July 27. The 4-year-old filly posted the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (69) and is a solid repeat candidate despite the class hike. 2-Madiha is 0 for 5 over the local strip but exits a sharp win over at Los Al on July 6 and still has room for further improvement, making her third try off the bench.
Race #3: Selections: 3-6-5
3-Goatski battled through some taxing early fractions in career try number two before tiring to finish fifth as the beaten favorite when facing several of today’s returning rivals on July 27. The daughter of Vronsky makes the all-important third career start for conditioner Dan Blacker and her second try around two turns. She’s the horse to beat if she can run back to her solid (73) debut turf Beyer when sprinting. 6-Warm Reception finished in front of the top choice in the aforementioned July 27 event with a much-improved second at 16-1 when returning off an 11-month freshening. She’s dangerous with another progressive move forward. Her stablemate, 5-We the Hobby, is an eight-start maiden for trainer Peter Miller that has hit the board in six of seven turf tries.
Race #4: Selections: 9-2-6
The newly gelded 9-Don’t Fly Stand By returns off nearly a five-month layoff for Sweezey, dropping out of a series of small stake events at Turf Paradise and Zia Park. The 3-year-old adds blinkers today, turns back in distance, and has been training steadily over the local surface for the last three weeks. His dirt sprint Beyers match up well here, and this barn has done well with their shippers. 2-Winds of Freedom is a multiple winner over this racetrack and returns off the mini-freshening for the lucrative veteran jockey-trainer combo of Desormeaux and Hess. The 3-year-old gelded son of Stanford drops in for a career-low claiming tag. 6-Panuco finished a disappointing ninth when returning to the Del Mar main track on July 18, but can bounce back today, making his second start off the Knapp claim.
Race #5: Selections: 6-2-9
6-Strong Morals debuts for trainer George Papaprodromou off a solid work tab and is by G1 winner Bodexpress, who gets a strong 18% with his juvenile debut prodigy. 2-Tiger Lady is by multiple G1 winner Smiling Tiger, who gets an ordinary 11% with his juvenile debuting offspring, but the Andy Mathis barn is fully capable of firing at first-asking. Mathis is off to a sluggish 2025 start halfway through the meet, but can get hot at any time. 9-If Not for Cas finished an even fourth at Los Al in her July 4 unveiling with a slow Beyer, but can certainly move forward off that performance for a sire (Listing) that’s done well from limited prodigy starts (6-3-0-0) according to DRF Formulator sire starts.
Race #6: Selections: 3-4-7
The multiple Grade 3-winning 3-Mrs. Astor has won four of her last five turf route starts for trainer Jonathan Thomas and returns off the two-month mini-freshening for today’s 1 3/8-mile engagement. This game 5-year-old mare has trained well over the local sod. 4-Sunset Glory (Ire) won this event last year for conditioner Michael McCarthy and will look to rebound off a subpar wide eighth in the Osunatis S. on July 20. This mare is a sharp 4-for-9 lifetime and will be making her third start of the form cycle today after a sharp allowance win to start her 2025 campaign. 7-Starry Heavens (Ire) has finished behind Mrs. Astor in all three stateside tries for D’Amato, who sends out three in here, but, in her defense, she’s run well in defeat.
Race #7: Selections: 12-1-10
12-My Hero is a seven-start maiden for conditioner Michael McCarthy that exits a sharp runner-up try when switched to the main track on July 4 at Los Al. The 4-year-old gelded son of War Front drops again on the turn back to 5 ½ furlongs and should prove tough if he can run back that (70) Beyer. 1-Dirty Words goes turf to dirt on the class drop for D’Amato, and needs not to improve much on his dirt debut to compete with this suspect group. 10-Seattle Surf is a 10-start maiden for conditioner Karen Headley, who has been plagued by layoff lines the last few seasons. The 5-year-old gelding exits a runner-up finish going a 1,000 yards when last seen under the lights at Los Al back on April 5 and should find himself on a clear lead this afternoon.
Race #8: Selections 2-7-6
The stakes-winning 2-Twirling Point is proven off the bench for trainer Jonathan Thomas and has trained well over the Del Mar grass course for today’s return to action. The 4-year-old gelding is dropped in for an $80k claiming tag today after closing out last year in off-the-board finishes in the G1 Hollywood Derby and G2 Twilight Derby. 7-Nesso’s Lastharrah has run equally well on dirt and turf for trainer Peter Eurton and moves back to the grass in his second try off the extended layoff. The 4-year-old colt stretches back out this afternoon off a game runner-up main track sprint effort behind repeat winner See Through It. 6-City Exhile (GB) finished behind both Eye on Ry and Siennois in his most recent start on July 18, but shortens back up to his preferred one-mile trip this afternoon for D’Amato, making his second start off the bench.
