Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Defiance (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 1-3-5
1-Reno flashed much-improved early speed in a sharp runner-up finish in his turf debut on July 19 and now makes the all-important third career try for conditioner Peter Eurton. The 5-year-old maiden by Collected fired a bullet three furlongs in :35.2 on August 7 in preparation for this. 3-Septembersixtyfour finished a troubled trip fifth behind the top choice in the aforementioned July 19 event on debut and is eligible to move forward in start number two. Trainer Mike Puype is 5 for 22 (23%) the past five years with second-time grass sprint starters. 5-Gandalf (by Omaha Beach) debuts for trainer John Sadler off a spirited work tab, which includes a pair of bullet drills over the Del Mar main track. This jockey-trainer combo is 3 for 6 (50%) with a $4.53 ROI with turf sprint first-time starters the past two years.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-9
The 1 for 16 1-Blue Fashion moves back to the main track on the stretch-out and drops in for a career-low claiming tag. The 4-year-old filly returns off a 10-week mini-freshening for trainer Marcelo Polanco and broke her maiden over dirt with jockey Hector Berrios, who returns to the stirrups this afternoon. 4-Auratium was a solid wide trip runner-up against $12,500 claimers when making her first main track start on July 6 at Los Al and looks like a good fit with this group of fillies and mares. 9-Exington only has one other previous dirt try last fall at Fairgrounds, but takes a sizable class drop today for Team O’Neill, while making her third start of the form cycle.
Race #3: Selections: 5-7-8
The Sadler-trained 5-Tight Squeeze is a short-priced standout on turf Beyers in this five-furlong grass dash, exiting a third-place effort against better on July 19 when making her first start over this turf course. The daughter of Sir Prancealot plans to sit a pressing stalking trip and take over convincingly late for regular pilot, Hector Berrios. 7-How Lovely (Ire) goes route to sprint for new trainer Doug O’Neill in her second stateside try today after having a troubled journey on July 20 over the local sod. She was off a step slow, rank, and running in spots in a green effort. The 3-year-old filly by No Nay Never had a nice four-furlong work since then, and improvement is likely. 8-Fondest Dream (GB) has been beaten by double digits in both stateside tries with slow starts for Baltas. However, she shortens up this afternoon and was a maiden winner at Brighton on debut in Great Britain, going 5 ½ furlongs before relocating to the States.
Race #4: Selections: 5-6-7
5-Dixie’s Delight has finished second in consecutive races for trainer Blaine Wright, and finished in front of a half dozen of today’s returning rivals on July 24 over this racetrack. The 3-year-old filly is a logical win threat, sporting the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer. 6-Smiling Rapper might have the most upside of the group that exits the aforementioned July 24 dirt sprint, making her second try off the bench for conditioner Bill McLean. 7-Coconut Girl is a 14-start maiden that has rallied well for the show spot in the last pair and exits a career-best main track Beyer.
Race #5: Selections: 9-6-2
9-Case Hit ran a bang-up second off the 11-month layoff for trainer Peter Miller when making his grass debut on July 24. The 3-year-old gelded son of Frosted showed good speed before tiring in the late stages to miss by a half-length and figures to be much tighter this afternoon second off the bench. He removes the blinkers today and goes second-time Lasix. 6-Travelin’ Show has not been worse than fourth in six starts this year and was a close-up third behind the top choice in his most recent try. He’s a logical fit right back with Kimura. 2-Potito makes her third start off the extended layoff for conditioner Carla Gaines after rallying nicely for the place spot on July 24. Top East Coast journeyman Tyler Gaffalione takes over for Rispoli, who lands on the top choice.
Race #6: Selections: 2-4-8
2-Howbeit rallied strongly for the win against this level on July 6 and now goes first off the claim for a new barn off the field’s best last out (77) main track Beyer. The 14-time winning veteran 8-year-old gelding projects to get another favorable live race flow to close into and has paired up victories in the past. 4-Halo Uncle was second behind Howbeit two-back but got up by a neck in a game score on July 24 when returning to the Del Mar main track for the first time in nearly two years. A multiple winner over the DMR strip, 8-Bag’s Gold makes his second start off the seven-month layoff for trainer Ryan Hanson. He exits a sharp runner-up finish at Los Al on June 27 and now drops in for a career-low $6,250 claiming tag.
Race #7: Selections: 2-3-6
2-Defiance rallied strongly for the show spot from a tough post when making his initial Del Mar grass try on July 19 for conditioner Richard Mandella. The 4-year-old daughter of Curlin moves inside today off three consecutive (80) turf Beyers and figures to mow these down late in what’s projected to be a spirited pace. She sports the top pace late figure in the field. 3-Eternal Reign (Ire) is unproven going this far, but has finished in the money in seven of nine career tries on turf for D’Amato and may have hit the front too soon in her most recent beaten favorite third-place finish back on June 15. A positive sign to see Hernandez get the return mount, who seemingly had several options in here. Her stablemate 6-Thebestisyettobe (Ire) has won two straight since returning off the extended layoff and has continued to strain sharply in the a.m., thus indicating that this mare could have another progressive move left in the tank. She’s another who will benefit from a live race flow.
Race #8: Selections 6-7-3
In a wide-open maiden claiming dirt route nightcap, it’s a good spot to try a price play. 6-Nassau Circle was beaten by double digits in his last pair for trainer Gary Mandella, but switches to a racing surface that he’s been training sharply over for the last several weeks and could improve immensely with the venue change and class drop. Blinkers are back on for class dropping 7-Goodbye Dal, who finished an OK third at 30-1 at Los Al in his most recent try, and now makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon for his Del Mar debut. A well-beaten runner-up in last, 3-Friends With Fidel co-tops the field’s best last-out main track Beyer and drops another notch for trainer Bob Hess. The gelding switches to his fourth different rider, the slumping Edwin Maldonado, who was 0 for 41 as of this writing.
