Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Lyle The Crocodile (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-4
1-Balboa flashed speed before tiring to third in a well-beaten third behind runaway barn mate, Brant, who dominated the July 26 maiden field. The $875K Keeneland purchase by Not This Time should be tough to handle with any normal second-out progression, building off that lucrative (81) Beyer. His stablemate, 5-Huber, finished a troubled trip eighth and last in his grass route debut on July 27, but is eligible to improve immensely in career try number two, switching to dirt and turning back and distance. The $700k OBS purchase by Omaha Beach has worked well since that disappointing unveiling. 4-Noble Testament (by multiple G1 winner Constitution) has worked swiftly in the a.m. for conditioner Richard Mandella, which included a “best of 42” bullet five-furlong main track drill in :59 flat on Aug. 1.
Race #2: Selections: 1-2-6
1-Lyle The Crocodile (Ire) was a recent third in the Oceanside (beaten less than a length) after hopping at the break before gathering momentum late and finishing fast for the show spot. The 3-year-old gelding from the D’Amato barn makes his third stateside try today and should be all set for a top effort on the class drop. Rispoli sticks. The multiple stakes-placed 2-Cali Cat finished behind the top choice in the aforementioned Oceanside on July 18, but appears to be the quickest from the gate and projects to get a favorable upfront pressing trip for Hernandez and Sadler. D’Amato’s other entrant is the first-time gelded 6-Mythical Reel (Ire), who returns off the mini-freshening, making his first spin around the Del Mar grass course.
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-3
The Baffert-trained 1-Himika didn’t disappoint in an impressive odds-on six-length debut blowout on June 12 over at Santa Anita and has continued to shine in morning drills for today’s stakes try. The pricey $900k daughter of Curlin had little trouble negotiating the rail draw on debut, but will need to do so again today for the repeat, which seems well within reach. In what looks like a potential private purchase, 2-Dreaming of Alys heads west after an impressive 4 ¾-length debut win at Laurel on June 13 and will make her first start under the care of trainer Phil D’Amato. The Upstart filly has trained sharply over the local surface. Churchill invader 3-Mo’ Em Down saw her Beyer figures improve nearly 20 points in a drastically improved runaway maiden score in career start number two, and is dangerous with another forward move for the red-hot Miller barn.
Race #4: Selections: 1-4-8
1-Jaguar Jon may prove to be a lucrative claim for conditioner Bob Hess, exiting a decent recent third-place finish over the Del Mar main track on July 26 after flashing good speed and tiring late. The 3-year-old gelding tries turf today and is by Om, who gets a solid 22% with his grass sprint starters. He shortens up to five panels, switches to Risploi, and could be long gone with an alert break if he takes to the sod. 4-Re Armed Jon is a logical threat off a solid 34-1 upset gate-to-wire turf sprint maiden score back on May 23, where he posted a field’s best last-out (82) Beyer. 8-Andthemofthebrave turns back in distance after the seven-month layoff for Knapp and broke his maiden sprinting last fall over this turf course. This gelded son of Om has run grass Beyers that match up well here if he is ready to fire off the bench.
Race #5: Selections: 3-5-8
3-Cashed makes her first start in the barn of trainer Doug O’Neill off a runner-up debut try at Wyoming Downs on July 13. The Reddam Racing filly from this barn’s Derby winner, I’ll Have Another, drilled a sharp three furlongs in :35.1 on August 3 and is dangerous today with any normal second-out improvement. 5-Blame It On Abby raced greenly, fighting the kickback on her July 18 debut when finishing up nicely for the show honors, and that valuable racing experience should serve her well in career try number two. The Miller barn has solid second-time dirt sprint stats. 8-Let It Begin was bounced around pretty good with a rough trip, seventh-place debut try when facing several of these on July 19, and is eligible to improve with a cleaner journey for conditioner Carla Gaines. This juvenile filly worked extremely well before her debut and returned with another sharp “best of 58” bullet four-furlong drill in :46.1 on Aug. 1.
Race #6: Selections: 2-11-6
If 2-Zombo Bombo can run two alike, he should win this $10k N3L claimer for trainer Steve Knapp, exiting a game runner-up finish on July 18 over this racetrack. The 4-year-old gelding posted a solid (80) Beyer for that top effort, and anything resembling that figure should beat this overmatched field. 11-Western Avenue finished fifth behind Zombo Bombo in his most recent start, but drops in for a career-low claiming tag for trainer George Papaprodromou and should get a live stalking trip from the outside, while getting off the rail in consecutive starts. He was a winner in his lone 5 ½-furlong start. 6-The Big Cheeseola finished a much-improved close-up second when returning to this racetrack and making his third start off the bench.
Race #7: Selections: 7-2-3
Today’s five-furlong dash is probably shorter than 7-Miss Roberts prefers, but she’s likely to be the beneficiary of a potential spirited early frontrunning duel and retains winning pilot Hector Berrios this afternoon. This 4-year-old filly will be motoring home late. The ultra-consistent 2-Certitude (Fr) sports an impressive (14-4-6-0) mark for trainer John Sadler and holds a double Beyer turf advantage over the rest of these fillies and mares. Hall of Famer Mike Smith takes over for Berrios, who lands on our top choice. The lightly raced 3-Bit’s Tiger Magic has won three straight for Hernandez and Miller, proven to be equally effective on both dirt and turf. The 4-year-old daughter of Smiling Tiger is wheeled back quickly after a sharp-looking win at the distance on July 27.
Race #8: Selections 9-8-7
Although he’s yet to break through, the speedy 9-Devil Among Us sports a solid (5-0-4-1) record over this racetrack and drops back down to the $20k claiming purchase price from three back. Trainer Librado Barocio is having a fabulous Del Mar stand, and this gritty gelding looks like a strong gate-to-wire threat, shortening up to 5 ½ furlongs. 8-Titanic Thompson was nailed late at 9-1 in a solid try against this level on July 18, where he posted the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (85). The Grazen colt has now hit the board in four of five career tries and switches to Hernandez today. A winner of three straight, 7-Bronko Nagurski has flourished since entering the Jeff Mullins barn and defeated a pair of next-out winners in his last Los Al score on June 27.
Race #9: Selections 2-4-3
2-Aleramo (Ire) had an awful tough trip when returning off an eight-month hiatus for conditioner Michael McCarthy and now drops in for a first-time tag for her second race off the bench. The daughter of G2 winner Arizona adds Lasix today, switches to barn’s go-to pilot Umberto Rispoli, and looks super live in the Sunday nightcap. 4-Without a Pout (Ire) is an interesting shipper for trainer Richard Baltas. This 3-year-old filly ran well routing at Gulfstream, facing maiden special weight types, and then finished an even seventh from a tough post in her first try in four months at Churchill on June 18. She’s trained well locally and drops in for a tag. 3-Inner Fury (Ire) is slowly improving for D’Amato and has been freshened for this. She was second against similar when last seen at the end of May at Santa Anita.
