Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Goatski (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 2-7-5
2-Goatski is wheeled back on short rest for trainer Dan Blacker, exiting a third-place finish over the track on Aug. 15 after reaching the front and tiring late. The Vronsky filly drops in for a first-time tag today and should be tough to catch on the class plunge as the likely pacesetter. This barn has solid stats with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. 7-Big Whoosh steps up in class on the move back to turf for conditioner Leonard Powell, but has run some of his better Beyers routing on grass. 5-Honey Jo was beaten by double digits in both career starts on dirt and turf, but stretches out to two turns this afternoon with the addition of blinkers and can improve with the class plunge.
Race #2: Selections: 3-2-5
Turf to dirt 3-Carmen Miranda returns off a 15-month layoff for Sadler for a reduced $25k claiming tag, but has been training steadily for today’s return to action and lures Hernandez off the bench. The 6-year-old mare by Stanford has hit the board in 12 of 19 career tries and should come out running for an excellent layoff barn. Trainer Sam Wilensky has a pair of runners that deserve respect in here. 2-Sophistry slashes her claiming tag in half off a third-place five-furlong turf effort on Aug. 14. She’s never gone this far, but was a dominant 6 ¼-length 1,000-yard winner under the Los Al lights two-back. Her stablemate, 5-Emirates Affair, ships in from Gulfstream in sharp form, having won three of her last four dirt starts with competitive Beyers. The 7-year-old mare is ultra-consistent, proven by her 11-12-7 mark from 51 lifetime tries.
Race #3: Selections: 1-3-8
1-Cactus Charlie flashed good speed and tired to finish a well-beaten fifth in his Aug. 3 unveiling for trainer Peter Miller and now moves to turf, shortening up to five panels in career try number two. This juvenile colt has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam side to suggest he’ll handle the surface switch, and he’s likely to be hustled along from the rail by Berrios. 3-Terrapin Flyer is by Bolt d’Oro, who gets an above-average 16% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The Mullins-trained 2-year-old has worked steadily in the a.m. and lures Hernandez at first-asking. Miller also sends out first-time gelding 8-L Rankin, who makes the all-important third career try and his first start on turf. He was a disappointing wide sixth when fractious in the gate in his most recent start, but can improve today after showing some ability on debut at Los Al.
Race #4: Selections: 8-1-5
8-Victoria’s Jewel backed up badly after flashing solid early zip in her turf sprint debut on Aug. 7 when attracting decent tote support for the Papaprodromou barn. The daughter of Win the Space (20% dirt sprints) is eligible to improve on the surface switch and class drop from MDSW to Maiden $50,000. 1-Selected (by Grazen) must negotiate the tricky rail draw for conditioner Andy Mathis, but has trained steadily for today’s unveiling, and this barn is a solid 3 for 14 (21%) with a $3.10 ROI with dirt sprint firsters at Del Mar the past four years. 5-Chica Tigre was a well-beaten fourth as the favorite in her first try over the track on July 25 after shipping in from Emerald and now adds blinkers for career start number three. Leading rider Juan Herandez retains the mount, which is an encouraging sign.
Race #5: Selections: 4-7-6
4-Thirty Two Chunk is the logical short-priced choice off back-to-back main track Beyers of 84 and 88 for trainer Mark Glatt. The 3-year-old gelded son of More Than Ready returns to Southern California, exiting a sharp runner-up effort at Churchill on June 28. He’s trained steadily since that effort over the Del Mar dirt. 7-Miracle Mark goes turf to dirt for the D’Amato barn on the turnback and ran decently the last time he tried dirt in the Affirmed Stakes last June. The 4-year-old gelding fired a sharp five-furlongs in :58.4 on Aug. 17 in preparation for this. 6-Charlie Foxtrot steps up to face winners off his recent 3 ¼-length maiden score on Aug. 2 and was claimed that afternoon by conditioner Bob Hess. Hernandez sees fit to ride.
Race #6: Selections: 3-5-2
3-One Step Beyond exits a troubled trip fourth as the beaten favorite on Aug. 1 when making his first start over the local venue and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Jorge Periban. This 2-year-old gelded son of Pavel steps up from $20k to $32,000 Maiden Claimers this afternoon for a barn that’s a sharp 5 for 16 (31%) with a lofty $4.84 ROI with first off the claim dirt sprint starters the past five years. 5-Surf Ranger came in and bumped hard with the eventual race winner while nearly unseating his rider in the aforementioned Aug. 1 maiden event, losing all realistic chance when racing wide thereafter. He adds blinkers today, making the all-important third career start, and can move forward for trainer Tim McCanna. 2-King of Success is a Jeff Bonde firster by Twirling Candy, who gets 16% with his juvenile debuting prodigy.
Race #7: Selections: 7-5-8
7-Jeweled Shillelagh goes second off the claim today for conditioner Ryan Hanson off consecutive sixth-place efforts. The 5-year-old gelding had little in reserve after chasing some snappy fractions in last, but may appreciate a potential slower tempo stretching out. There doesn’t appear (at least on paper) to be that much early zip signed on this afternoon. 5-Dandy Man Shines (Ire) is winless since November 2023 but drops in for a career-low claiming tag today for conditioner Jeff Mullins while making his second start off the bench. He’s a multiple winner over this grass course and should be picking up the pieces late. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 8-Beef Winslow goes first off the claim today for trainer Bob Hess, and adds blinkers back on off an even fifth. He’s one of four exiting the one-mile July 25 grass event.
Race #8: Selections 3-9-2
3-Ready to Dare is a 12-start maiden for trainer Steve Sherman, who has posted back-to-back (56) main track Beyers going two turns. The 3-year-old filly shortens back up to a sprint today, gets some class relief, and this looks like a now-or-never spot for the daughter of Daredevil. A sharp three-furlong drill in :35.3 on Aug. 17 adds to the appeal. 9-Perfect Smile has shown solid early zip but tired late in the last pair for trainer Peter Miller, but must now negotiate an additional furlong. 2-Lena Lindgard was a solid second in her Los Al debut back on June 21 for conditioner Steve Miyadi and now adds Lasix for start number two, dropping from $20k Maiden Claimers to today’s $12,500 level.
Dean Keppler do you offer a paper back handicapping book available I am very interested in how you personal handicap races have you published any books that i can buy?? Thanks Steve
Steven, Thanks for the note. I have two paperback titles that I published several years ago, but nothing recently. Trainer Angles: Maximizing Profits using Formulator Software and Advanced Trainer Stats & Betting The Kentucky Derby.They’re both still available on Amazon. Most of my current handicapping still revolves around using the DRF Formulator program. I like to look for profitable high ROI track-specific trainer stats and patterns. I also utilize the DRF Timeform pace projector. It’s easy to use and very accurate. It gives you an excellent platform of how the race is going to unfold pace-wise. It’s very helpful. And, then, just other old-school traditional handicapping factors–Beyer speed figures, watching race replays and Clocker Reports. They’re especially helpful in Southern California. I know Toby Turrell at “Case The Race” provides an excellent daily clocker report in Southern California that’s available for purchase. Excellent report. I hope this is helpful! Thanks Dean