Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Video Review (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 6-2-5
6-Neko is a $300k Keeneland purchase by Triple Crown winner Justify, debuting for team Baffert. The 3-year-old filly has trained smartly, is nicely drawn outside, and lures the barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez. A beaten favorite in all five starts, 2-Margarita Girl has also hit the board in all five career tries for Glatt and has simply run too well to have not broken through the maiden ranks as of yet. The Twirling Candy filly has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions. Neko’s stablemate, 5-Philippa, is the lone 4-year-old in the field and hasn’t been out in 10 months. This daughter of Arrogate has worked sharply for today’s return to action and ran well over this racetrack last summer.
Race #2: Selections: 4-5-7
4-Video Review ran very well off the seven-month layoff back on June 13, flashing good early zip and tiring to finish second. The gelded son of Nyquist was claimed for $50k that afternoon by Sadler and now returns to that same level off the mini-freshening. This barn is 4 for 20 (20%), 10 for 20 ITM, with first off the claim grass sprint starters the past five years. He should prove tough to beat, turning back to five panels. 5-B Grayson drops in for a first-time tag today, making his second start sprinting on turf for conditioner Val Brinkerhoff. He’s likely to improve, making his second start off the bench and second start with Lasix. 7-Smiling Tizzy returns to turf where he’s posted most of his better Beyer figs.
Race #3: Selections: 7-2-8
Blinkers off, 7-Exington moves up in class off the Aug. 14 Miyadi claim when finishing a solid runner-up going two turns. The daughter of Hard Spun turns back to a sprint today and sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer. This outfit is a solid 3 for 13 (23%) with newly acquired dirt sprint starters the past five years and switches to jockey David Cohen, who has ridden well here this summer with limited chances. 2-Thirsty Trickster was an extremely wide, fast-closing second in her Del Mar debut when probably best that afternoon with simply too much to do with a troubled trip. This filly is a logical fit for conditioner Dean Pederson, facing similar. 8-Cioppina Pasadina is drawn outside with decent early pace and should fall into a favorable upfront pressing trip. The 3-year-old filly was a wide trip fourth in her first try over this racetrack on July 31 when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals, including Thirsty Trickster.
Race #4: Selections: 2-4-7
2-Cara Rose is one of the most experienced fillies in this field and has run well in all three starts for conditioner Steve Miyadi, including a decent third on grass two-back. The daughter of multiple G1 winner Caravaggio is a logical fit. The Carla Gaines-trained 4-Avocado Lake is by Om, who gets 10% with juvenile firsters and a strong 20% with turf sprint starters. She’s worked steadily for this afternoon’s unveiling. 7-Cash in Toknight debuts for team O’Neill off a solid work tab. She’s by Pavel, who gets above average 19% with his juvenile debuting prodigy, but is only 1 for 46 (2%) with grass sprint starters. Mixed feelings.
Race #5: Selections: 1-6-2
Early speed has been good all meet, going one mile over the main track, which bodes well for 1-Issa Court. A beaten favorite in last when battling determinedly on the front end before surrendering to finish fourth, the 5-time winning 7-year-old mare adds blinkers back on today off the Sweezey claim and should prove tough to reel in with an alert break. 6-Miso Phansy takes a huge class drop today for trainer Leonard Powell, exiting back-to-back graded stakes turf route tries. The daughter of multiple G1 winner Karakonite has never been on dirt, but her sire gets a strong 20% with main track route runners, so the surface change should bode well. 2-Lady Mendelssohn finished third in the Fleet Treat S. in her most recent try on July 25 and is another getting significant class relief this afternoon, going second off the bench for conditioner Carla Gaines.
Race #6: Selections: 8-3-9
8-Mirinda lost all chance in the last when bumped at the break and forced to take up sharply, and that last July 26 turf sprint dash try is a toss. The Mitole filly switches to Hernandez today, making her third start of the form cycle, and figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon with an alert break. The lightly raced 3-Freya hasn’t been out in 11 months for trainer Dan Blacker, but was a sharp maiden winner over this grass course when last seen back in November of last year, and has trained swiftly for her return to action. The daughter of Smiling Tiger adds Lasix today. 9-Magical Miss is stuck on the AE’s and needs to draw in, but was a strong maiden 10-1 turf winner on debut on Aug. 3 over a bulky field for Baltas and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners.
Race #7: Selections: 2-7-1
2-Sea Dog hasn’t been seen since March 7 at Santa Anita when claimed for $6.250, but has been training steadily since the beginning of July for his new barn, and has posted some of the fastest main track route dirt Beyers in the field. The 8-year-old veteran gelding 7-Impossible Task removes the blinkers today off the claim for conditioner Leonard Powell, exiting a sharp runner-up try on July 5 at Los Al. This barn has strong stats with newly acquired purchases on dirt from a small sample, going 3-for-7 (43%) with a $2.89 ROI the past four years. A tepid beaten favorite in last, 1-Havoc stretches back out today and returns to Del Mar, where he’s a multiple winner.
Race #8: Selections 6-4-2
First off the claim, 6-Trusty Rusty wheels back off less than a week’s rest and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (82) off his most recent runner-up finish on Aug. 15. The 5-year-old retains Hernandez for conditioner Bob Hess. The speedy 4-Mongolian Apple was a wide trip fourth after never reaching the top when facing several of these same returning rivals on July 31, but should be much tighter second off the bench. 2-McClusky rallied strongly for the place spot in the aforementioned July 31 event when making his first start over the Del Mar lawn and posting a career-best turf Beyer. The 4-year-old gelding should appreciate the additional sixteenth of a mile.
