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Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner

BEST BET: 8-Dare to Fly (Race 5)

Race #1: Selections: 1-2-6

First off the claim 1-Saul Elliott exits a near-miss over the Santa Anita main track on Oct. 18 and now makes his initial turf try off the Peter Miller $50k purchase. The juvenile colt has enough grass pedigree to suggest he will handle the surface switch admirably, and this barn has solid overall stats with new acquisitions. 2-Ventry Stand drops out of the Oct. 4 Speakeasy S. into this softer spot this afternoon for conditioner John Sadler after rallying well (despite traffic) to round out the superfecta. The Bolt d’Oro colt should be closing strongly through the lane in career try number three. Miller’s other entrant, 6-Mo Holland Drive, returns to turf on the turnback, exiting a sixth-place finish in the Golden State Juvenile S. on Halloween. He was a sharp maiden winner on grass two back.

Race #2: Selections: 1-6-4

A beaten favorite in the last, 1-Case Hit adds blinkers off the mini-freshening and has good early zip from the rail draw. The 3-year-old gelded son of Frosted has hit the board in five of six career tries, and should prove tough to reel in late for Miller—setting up a potential barn early double. 6-Pockey Venus is the lone filly in the field but has run well in all three starts, including an 8 ½-length debut romp and back-to-back runner-up efforts. She fired a sharp three-furlong bullet in :36 flat for trainer Mark Glatt in preparation for this on Nov. 19. 4-Listenupshance removes the blinkers today and returns to dirt for Team O’Neill, exiting a troubled trip turf try on Oct. 12 when having issues at the break and racing wide thereafter. The gelding continues to work well in the a.m.

Race #3: Selections: 7-2-3

It took 13 tries to break through, but we will ride the potential “light bulb” angle on the recent maiden victor, 7-Empire’s Classic. The 4-year-old gelding rallied wide for the one-mile turf win on Oct. 18 and should get another live race flow to close into this afternoon, co-toping the field’s best late pace figure. He’s lightly raced this current campaign and can improve further at a likely reasonable price with Kimura. The 1-for-15 2-Night Out has hit the board in the last five tries and was a fast-closing second past the wire as the odds-on choice in his most recent try on Oct. 18 before getting DQ’d and placed sixth for interference. The trouble-prone colt is hard to leave off the ticket, but is a risky proposition on the win end. 3-Burning Rubber is a stretch-out maiden winner, who has hit the board in five of seven career tries for Sean McCarthy and has the pedigree to suggest that two turns are within reach. Hernandez sticks.

Race #4: Selections: 2-4-1

A small but tricky field of lightly raced juvenile fillies lines up here. The Jeff Mullins-trained 2-Darlin Sugaree kicked away to an impressive 4 ½-length maiden score in start number two on Oct. 13 and looks well-placed against winners for the potential repeat. 4-My Kat has been ambitiously placed in several of her starts while being outrun, but drops into a more realistic spot this afternoon and should appreciate both the turn back in distance and class relief. Her stablemate, 1-Strong Morals, was badly overmatched in her recent seven-furlong stake try along with My Kat, but was a game 6 ¼-length maiden winner two back.

Race #5: Selections: 8-1-2

8-Dare to Fly exits back-to-back sharp runner-up turf sprint tries at this level for trainer Phil D’Amato and shortens up to five panels this afternoon after finishing second to repeat Peruvian-bred winner Princesa Moche. 1-Judith returns to Southern California after two grass sprint tries at Colonial and Keeneland. The Jonathan Thomas-trained filly has good gate speed, drops out of a better allowance event in Kentucky, and picks up the red-hot leading rider, Mirco Demuro. 2-Lovin’ On the Run has been equally effective on dirt and turf for Team O’Neill, having won three of her last five starts. The 5-year-old Runhappy mare exits a sharp 5 ¼-length main track win at Los Al back on Sept. 14 and was a close-up fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Daisycutter H. grass sprint over this track two-back with a competitive figure.

Race #6: Selections: 8-3-7

8-Into the Hall has run too well not to have broken through the maiden ranks yet, achieving better than par for this class level on a pair of occasions. The pricey daughter of Into Mischief exits back-to-back runner-up finishes for trainer John Shirreffs and is nicely drawn outside with good positional speed. This looks like graduation day at a short price. 3-Neko is one of two trained by Bob Baffert. This daughter of Justify makes the all-important third career start today but has finished behind the top choice in both six-furlong sprint efforts and will need to move forward. 7-Lubie’s Music (by Maclean’s Music) debuts with Lasix for trainer Richard Mandella off a spirited work tab. The sophomore filly should have every opportunity if good enough with this advantageous draw and apparent gate speed.

Race #7: Selections: 2-9-5

2-Mrs. Astor, the 2024 winner of this event, returns for a potential repeat for conditioner Jonathan Thomas in sharp form, having won four of her last six grass route tries. The 5-year-old mare runs well fresh and should work out a favorable ground-saving journey with Rispoli. She figures to be set up perfectly by stablemate Will Then, who should be sent out amongst the frontrunners. 9-Venganza is still looking for her first stakes win, but has enough positional speed to land a good spot on or close to the lead today. She finished a close-up fourth in the Swingtime S. in her most recent try and had legitimate trouble in her marathon attempt two back. 5-Public Assembly stretches back out today for D’Amato, where she is most comfortable, and this G3 winner figures to be motoring home late with regular pilot, Antonio Fresu.

Race #8: Selections: 9-2-6

Barstool personality and owner Dave Portnoy, and his Go Go Greys Stable, send out second-time starter 9-Miss Watermelon, who has flashed sharp speed in her morning drills since arriving in Southern California. The daughter of Cairo Prince adds blinkers today and goes turf to dirt after a sluggish beginning in her Keeneland debut back on Oct. 3. She will likely improve substantially in start number two for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who has strong stats overall with second-time starters. 2-Nimah is a $550k Fasig-Tipton August purchase by Gun Runner, debuting for Team Baffert off a series of sharp drills. She’s likely to come out running. 6-Lerios (by Into Mischief) has also worked very well for Mandella and Dimuro. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 2-for-7 (29%) with a $4.91 ROI with firsters since August.

Race #9: Selections: 1-4-8

1-Winika is an interesting shipper now in the barn of trainer Jeff Mullins and is worth a stab at a price in a wide-open Saturday nightcap. She finished an even fifth in her Tampa main track debut eight months ago and may take to routing on turf with the addition of Lasix. This jockey-trainer combo is 5-for-17 (29%) with turf runners after a trainer switch over the past two years. 4-Gathered drops back in for a tag today after flashing speed and tiring against MDSW types on Oct. 24 for trainer Michael McCarthy. The Collected filly is likely to hang around a lot longer at this reduced level with similar tactics. 8-Wildfire Princess is tough to gauge. She finished second this level two-back with a (68) turf Beyer but was even fifth when facing several of these in her most recent try on Oct. 26. Perhaps the shortening back up to a mile will help.