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Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Pokerknightatvees (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-6
A beaten favorite in last, 2-Charmz Away has hit the board in five of nine career tries for trainer Luis Mendez and returns off an eight-month layoff with a steady and spirited work tab. The sophomore gelding returns for a good layoff barn, and the 10th start could be the charm. He’s bred to handle an off track. 4-Go Trigger Cut finished an even fifth in his Oct. 13 unveiling and is eligible to move forward today for trainer Bill McLean. This barn is 4 for 13 (31%) with a $3.69 ROI with second-time dirt sprint starters the past four years. 6-Irish Element goes turf to dirt on the quick turnaround for Team O’Neill, while dropping in for a first-time tag. These are all positive moves for a shrewd barn, and this 3-year-old gelding is likely to show vast improvement this afternoon.
Race #2: Selections: 7-6-1
A voided claim back on Sept. 20, last-out Los Al maiden winner 7-Stanford Dropout is back off a two-month freshening for trainer Brian Koriner. The 2-year-old colt sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (59) and figures to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. He has a strong off-track pedigree. 6-Marcos Performance takes a sizable class drop this afternoon for conditioner Craig Lewis and is a solid fit based on his last pair of sprint tries, facing better competition. Recent maiden winner 1-Chase N Ryan exits a 4 ½-length score (57 Beyer) over next-out winner Lady K Westfall and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners.
Race #3: Selections: 5-4-6
Initially scheduled for turf and now on dirt, but 5-John Metcalfe is the selection nonetheless. The juvenile colt got a much better post draw on Sunday and showed much-improved early zip on grass off the freshening on Oct. 19 when finishing a clear second over a pair of today’s returning rivals. The Craig Lewis juvenile has enough gate speed to ensure a favorable tracking trip with Hernandez back in the saddle, and his pedigree suggests he’ll love a wet track. 4-Rocky Colavito stretches out in start number two for trainer Phil D’Amato off an even fifth in his Oct. 30 sprint unveiling. The 2-year-old gelding fired back-to-back main track bullet drills at Los Al before his initial outing and can improve today. The Sean McCarthy-trained 6-Booked Clubhouse moves to dirt in start number four and is bred to handle routing over the main track (Clubhouse Ride/18% dirt routes).
Race #4: Selections: 3-6-7
Class dropping 3-Pokerknightatvees goes second off the claim for trainer Steve Knapp on the turnback and fired a “best of 22” three-furlong bullet in :35 flat before that last subpar seventh-place finish on Halloween. The sophomore colt could sit a favorable stalking journey this afternoon. The speedy 6-Last Call Zondlo has run well in his previous three main track sprint tries for conditioner Craig Dollase and lands in a field that appears (at least on paper) not to have a ton of early zip. 7-Western Freedom steps up in class off the recent claim and the win on Oct. 30 for conditioner Mark Glatt, and this barn has solid stats overall with new acquisitions. That last 5 ½-furlong score over this racetrack may prove to be a good confidence builder.
Race #5: Selections: 3-4-5-9
Trainer Bob Baffert has a pair of lightly raced 3-year-old fillies entered here off layoffs. The stakes-placed 3-Mawu (by Blame) has been training sharply for her return to action off a 10-month layoff, adds Lasix this afternoon, and lures Hernandez. Her stablemate is 4-Brilliantly, a daughter of Uncle Mo, who broke her maiden on grass back in March, and has flashed speed in both career tries. She’s also trained exceptionally well in the a.m., and jockey Flavien Prat is scheduled to ride. 5-Magnificat and 9-Artisma have a recency edge over the top pair and have already posted some quick dirt Beyers equal or close to par for this level, and they both figure to get favorable stalking trips this afternoon. All four contenders have strong off-track pedigrees.
Race #6: Selections: 5-8-2
In a wide-open maiden claiming 5 ½-furlong dirt sprint for juvenile fillies, it is a good spot to try a price play. 5-Cotta Ride showed very little in her turf MDSW sprint unveiling when off slowly and trailing the field, but is eligible to wake up with the surface switch and addition of blinkers. She’s by Clubhouse Ride, who gets 17% with his dirt sprinters and is bred to love the off-going. 8-Gracies Gem (by Stay Thirsty) debuts for the Papaprodromou barn off a solid work tab. This barn has below-average numbers with dirt sprint debut runners at Del Mar (3 for 36/8%) but a positive $3.37 ROI thanks to 41-1 upset debut winner Spirit of Makena back in 2022. Ripoli takes the call on this firster for a conditioner who is firing on all cylinders this mini-meet. 2-Tammy Baby has not been able to run back to her encouraging runner-up finish on debut from back in June, but drops in for a first-time tag today for trainer Jeff Bonde and can wake up in this softer spot.
Race #7: Selections: 4-7-3
The ultra-consistent 4-Mr. Disrespectful removes the blinkers today and shortens up on the barn change for Craig Dollase. This 5-year-old gelding has hit the board in 10 of 14 lifetime starts, switches to Hernandez this afternoon, and fired a sharp five-furlong bullet in :58.1 over the Santa Anita synthetic track on Nov. 10. 7-Berlin Wall has run well in all four career starts for trainer Steve Knapp, with his lone win coming via DQ three-back. The son of Practical Joke makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon, exiting back-to-back runner-up finishes with competitive Beyers. 3-Kerry Gold is 1 for 25 the past two years, but shortens up to a sprint today with the best late pace figure in this field and should get a live race flow to close into. The veteran 6-year-old gelding is a must-use for those playing vertical exotics.
Race #8: Selections: 3-4-2
3-Himika kicked away to a decisive win on the class drop in the Anoakia S. on Oct. 19 over a pair of today’s returning rivals for Baffert, and the pricey son of Curlin looks primed for the repeat, stretching out to seven furlongs. A wet track will only enhance her chances. Runner-up to Himika in the last 4-Revera has run well in all three career starts for Sadler and has good positional speed. The Lexitonian juvenile is likely to be hustled along by jockey Antonio Fresu. The Mandella-trained 2-Bourbon and Ginger is better than she’s shown in the last pair when racing on grass in the Speakeasy sprint and overmatched in the Del Mar Dubutante (G1) in start number two. The Bolt d’Oro juvenile filly blew out a sharp three furlongs in sub :36 for this on Nov. 12.
Race #9: Selections: 4-9-7-11
Second off of the claim 4-Big Juanito has already proven he can sit back from and make a strong run late, like he did in his one-mile maiden breaking grass score last August and both dirt tries two and three-back. The Bob Hess-trained 5-year-old catches a likely live race flow this afternoon and gets class relief today. The veteran 8-year-old gelding, 9-Impossible Tax, weakened to fifth in his most recent try on Oct. 5, but was a sharp 8 ½-length gate-to-wire winner for trainer Leonard Powell two-back, going this one-mile trip over this course. He gets the red-hot Demuro in the Sunday nightcap and may fall into a favorable tracking trip from the outside. 7-Four O Six Creed goes two sprints to a route today, having won two straight for Mullins, and loves a wet track (6-1-4-0). 11-Trusty Rusty is stuck on the AE’s, but is a late threat in a speed-laden field if he draws in. The Tapiture gelding usually fills out the underneath exotics and was overmatched in his most recent try.


