Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Rhythem on Stage (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-3
2-Cameron Slough rallied sharply for the place spot at this level in her first start over the track on August 2 and co-tops the field’s best last-out turf Beyer. The Neil Drysdale-trained filly gets a better post this afternoon. 4-Dorie Miller goes two sprints to a route this afternoon for a barn still looking for their first win of the meet. This 3-year-old filly is only 1 for 16 but frequently grabs a slice of the underneath exotics. She fits here based on raw numbers. 3-Nanci Griffith goes dirt to the turf on the quick turnaround for trainer Steve Miyadi and should be on or close to the lead on today’s stretch-out.
Race #2: Selections: 6-1-2
6-Epione moves back to the main track off an even fourth-place effort on July 26. The 3-year-old filly finished a close third (missing by only a head) when last seen trying six furlongs over the main track at Santa Anita on May 12. She projects to get a favorable stalking trip with today’s outside draw. Blinkers off 1-Fly At Knight goes turf to dirt while making the all-important third career start for conditioner Mark Glatt. She flashed some good early zip before tiring to third in her main track debut effort. 2-Play My Speed is slowly rounding into form and exits a decent runner-up finish on August 9.
Race #3: Selections: 9-1-2
9-Grazen Gator (by Grazen) defeated three of these same rivals when rallying sharply for the place spot in her August 8 unveiling and now stretches out for start number two. Trainer Peter Miller has solid overall numbers with his second-time grass starters, and Rispoli stays aboard. 1-Tequilaandtherapy goes two sprints to a route this afternoon for Team O’Neill and moves to the rail for her second start over the track. This gal is wheeled back on 8 days rest, and jockey Antonio Fresu had seven wins here last week. 2-Orange Thunder ran on well for third behind the top choice despite breaking from the rail in her debut and now stretches out to two turns in career start number two. This barn has solid stats with their second-time starters, and Clubhouse Ride gets a respectable 14% with his grass route offspring.
Race #4: Selections: 4-5-1
4-Aloha Kitten goes turf to dirt and drops from $40k claimers to $10,000 for trainer Steve Knapp. The 7-year-old mare makes her third start off the bench today and can improve running at a drastically reduced level. 5-Stein’s Girl ships in from Emerald Downs for new conditioner and goes two sprints to a route today. This consistent mare has finished third in her last three races up north and is an 8-time winner going a mile. 1-Persuasive Lips was trounced by double digits in her most recent start on July 28 but is dropped to a career-low $10k claiming tag this afternoon for trainer Steve Sherman. She’s 2-3-0 from six tries going one-mile.
Race #5: Selections: 6-8-5
6-Cali Cat finished a wide fifth when breaking a step slow in his July 21 dirt debut and now moves to the turf on the stretch-out for the red-hot Sadler barn. This outfit has solid trainer stats in all the relevant categories this afternoon, and Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah gets 14% with turf route runners. 8-Call Me Sir attracted solid tote support in his fourth-place turf sprint debut finish on August 8 and is likely to move forward substantially in career start number two. 5-Uncle Evco (by Smiling Tiger) didn’t do much running in his five-furlong August 9 debut but stretches out to two turns this afternoon for trainer Michael McCarthy and is eligible to improve. 3-Chasin a Dollar showed some late interest despite breaking slowly in his April 11 Turf Paradise debut and now drops down to face straight MDSW types for the new barn. The son of Mr. Big moves to grass on the stretch-out for Team O’Neill and has trained steadily over the last couple of months.
Race #6: Selections: 6-8-2
Baffert’s second-time starter, 6-Seismic Beauty, is a logical choice based on his encouraging August 3 debut second-place effort and (79) Beyer. The $550k Keeneland purchase by Uncle Mo has worked twice since that promising unveiling and should prove to be a handful with any normal second-out improvement. Her stablemate, 8-Nafisa, is a daughter of Quality Road, and cost a hefty $1.8 million at the August 2022 Fasig-Tipton sales. She returns from a nine-month layoff after finishing a solid second in her lone start last November over this course. This well-bred gal has trained sharply for today’s return to action and adds Lasix. 2-Dashingly has shown good gate speed in all three starts thus far for trainer John Shireffs. She makes her second start off the bench today and shows a solid bullet five-furlong drill in :59.1 on August 21.
Race #7: Selections 6-8-5
6-Rhythem on Stage shortens from 6 ½ to five furlongs today for trainer Carla Gaines and finished a solid second when last attempting this sprint dash distance. This jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 10 (40%) with a $4.22 ROI for the past four years with turf sprint starters at Del Mar. 8-Belmont Bill goes route to sprint in his second start off the bench for conditioner Tony Saavedra. This 6-year-old gelding likes to finish underneath but does sport the field’s best last-out turf Beyer. 5-Western Grit moves back to turf off the recent Maiden Claiming main track score on August 16 and will be on or close to the lead again in this tougher assignment.
Race #8: Selections: 3-6-2
Blinkers on 3-Class Clown slashes his claiming tag in half from $40k to $20,000 for conditioner Brian Koriner and should prove tough to reel in with an alert break. She’s 2 for 2 going this 5 ½ furlong trip. 6-Dr. Ray D ships in from Gulfstream for trainer Bob Hess on the class drop and makes her first start on dirt today. The 3-year-old filly hasn’t worked swiftly over the local footing but is bred for the main track and has run well at 5 ½ furlongs. 2-Just Is has run second and third at this level in the last two tries.
