Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Du Jour (Race 11)
Race #1: Selections: 2-6-1
2-Non Complaint is a Baffert first-time starter by Tiz the Law who attracts Hernandez for today’s unveiling of the barn’s typical flashy worktab. This jockey-trainer duo has three wins and four runner-up finishes from seven starts this meet. 6-Margarita Gal is a $575K OBS purchase by G1 winner Twirling Candy, who gets a solid 18% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This gal debuts for the Mark Glatt barn off strong a.m. drills. 1-Grace by Faith is an $800k lofty Keeneland purchase by multiple G1 winner Authentic. She must negotiate the tricky rail draw but looks well-meant for an excellent barn that frequently fires with firsters.
Race #2: Selections: 7-8-2
7-Pat’s Paddock Pick has seen his Beyers improve with each subsequent start of 2024 and should get a favorable stalking trip just off the frontrunners. The 4-year-old colt finished a good second in front of several of these same rivals on August 10. 8-Magic Account returns off a three-month freshening exiting an 8 ½-length blowout Maiden Claiming score on May 18. The gelding’s recent works have been super sharp. The speedy 2-Jonas’ Dream shortens from seven to six panels today after making his Southern California unveiling a winning one with a Maiden Claiming victory on August 4. He finished directly in front of next-out winner Luther Pass, who came back to score at Emerald Downs on August 24.
Race #3: Selections: 2-11-1
2-Broheim rallied strongly for the runner-up spot when making his first try around two turns on July 20. The 3-year-old is eligible to take another step forward for trainer Michael McCarthy. First-time gelding 11-Spycatcher returns off an 11-month layoff for conditioner Mark Glatt off a steady and well-spaced work tab. This 5-year-old Maiden finished second in the G1 Hollywood Derby and G2 Del Mar Derby in 2022. He’s posted the fastest turf Beyers in this field and is a huge factor if ready to fire off the bench. 1-Andreadytorumble goes two sprints to a route for trainer Peter Miller while making his third start of the form cycle this afternoon. The 3-year-old gelding moves inside and switches to top turf pilot Hector Berrios.
Race #4: Selections: 3-7-2
3-Hope Road is by Quality Road and goes two sprints to a route today for Team Baffert. The 3-year-old filly exits a career-best Beyer (93) off a recent 5 ¼-length win on August 4. Hernandez sticks here on the short price filly. Her stablemate is the multiple G2-winning 7-Nothing Like You, who is 4 for 9 lifetime and returns off a mini-freshening. This daughter of Malibu Moon is proven around two turns and has run well over the Del Mar main track. 2-Soho has never tried dirt but has hit the board in four of six turf starts for trainer John Sadler. She’s by City of Light, a multiple G1 winner going two turns over the main track. She has a mild upset chance for a barn that has had an excellent meet.
Race #5: Selections: 7-1-6
This is a very competitive running of the G2 Del Mar Handicap and looks like a spread race to close out the early pick 5 sequence. The 7-time winning 6-year-old gelding 7-Gold Phoenix has won this event twice and encountered heavy traffic late in his most recent seventh-place finish in the July 28 G2 Eddie Read. The game gelding is always at the mercy of negotiating a good trip with his late closing running style but likes this grass course and distance. His stablemate 1-Balnikhov (Ire) is another who needs to work out a good trip. The 5-year-old gelding closed well late to grab the show spot in front of Gold Phoenix and several of these in the Eddie Read and moves to the rail this afternoon. 6-Master Piece (Chi) had a decent ground-saving trip in the aforementioned Eddie Read and had some solid run when shaking free midstretch but was no match for the winner, Johannes, who was long gone. The Dutrow-trained 8-year-old switches to Hernandez this afternoon.
Race #6: Selections: 5-6-9
5-I’m a Bad Boy has hit the board in all three career tries and drops back down to face straight MDSW types off a third-place effort in the August 9 Graduation Stakes. The Stay Thirsty gelding has run par or better for this level in two of those three races. 6-Gozer didn’t have the cleanest of trips in the debut try when bumped repeatedly and wide. Trainer Peter Miller is a solid 13 for 49 (27%) with second-time dirt sprint starters at Del Mar in the past five years. 9-Dancing Dillon didn’t do much running when he was difficult to load in his turf sprint debut on August 9 but is eligible to improve with that racing experience behind him. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 4 for 16 (25%) with a $2.19 ROI with dirt to turf second-time starters the past five years.
Race #7: Selections: 5-2-6
5-Don’t Fight the Fed exits a strong runner-up finish against this same level on August 3 when coming up a nose short with a (83) grass Beyer. A big threat right back with a similar effort. The Nyquist colt should have little trouble negotiating an additional sixteenth of a mile. 2-McGregor Lake lost all realistic chance in the most recent grass sprint try on August 25 when breaking slowly and spotting the field three lengths. He stretches back out this afternoon, makes his third start of the form cycle, and ran some competitive figures for this level this past spring at Santa Anita. 6-Yo Time goes two sprints to a route for D’Amato and figures to get a favorable upfront pressing trip.
Race #8: Selections: 3-9-1
3-El Rey Dorado moves back to the main track for his second start off the bench and was a 5 ½-length winner two-back at Santa Anita with a (95) Beyer when last on dirt. He had a nice five-furlong drill over the track on August 24. 9-Fast Draw Munnings hasn’t been out in 11 months for Mullins but was a sharp gate-to-wire winner over this course at this level last August. The 5-year-old gelding sports the field’s best Beyer (95), finishing second in the E.B. Johnson Stakes when last seen Sept. 16 last fall. 1-Bright Leaf moves up in class off the claim, exiting a strong win on August 1. The 5-year-old raced wide throughout and drew off to an impressive 4 ¼-length victory. A threat right back for a new barn with similar performance.
Race #9: Selections 9-10-3
Trainer Phil D’Amato has four entries in this year’s edition of the G3 Green Flash Handicap. The 5-year-old mare 9-Connie Swingle scampered away to an impressive 1 ¾-length win on July 27 when returning off an extended 22-month layoff. She’s trained extremely well since that solid performance and should prove a handful in here if able to improve upon that lofty (99) Beyer figure. Her stablemate is the multiple G3-winning 10-Motorious (GB). This 6-year-old gelding returns off a 2 ½-month mini-freshening and is a perfect 2 for 2 at Del Mar going this five-furlong distance. He’ll be flying late. 3-Sassy Nature scored an 18-1 upset when returning from Gulfstream on August 2 with an impressive gate-to-wire victory. The 4-year-old filly might be the speed of the speed.
Race #10: Selections: 4-3-2
The Bob Baffert-trained 4-Reincarnate has run well in both routes tries over this course and exits back-to-back runner-up efforts. The 4-year-old colt has trained smartly in recent weeks and is the pick after the late scratch of the super mare Adare Manor. The lightly-raced 3-Dr. Venkman has continued to improve and exits a career-best Beyer (99) when stretched to two turns in the G2 San Diego Handicap. His sire Ghostzapper won the BC Classic at today’s 1 1/4-mile trip. 2-There Goes Harvard lands here with a $10k supplement fee attached after being double entered in the Del Mar Handicap. The 6-year-old goes turf to dirt but has yet to hit the board in 2023 and 2024. A Hollywood Gold Cup winner going this 1 1/4 mile trip in 2022, you’d have to think the 6-year-old has shown something for trainer Michael McCarthy to be entered in this aggressive spot.
Race #11: Selections: 3-9-8
A winner of this event last year, 3-Du Jour shortens back up to his preferred one-mile trip, where he’s an impressive (5-3-1) from 12 tries. The 6-year-old gelding finished a non-threatening sixth in the G2 Eddie Read in his most recent start but will likely bounce back in this better spot this afternoon. 9-First Peace has enough speed to get involved early on despite the outside draw and sports the field’s best last-out grass, Beyer (100), with a recent win in the July 21 Wickerr Stakes. 8-Conclude finished an even fourth when facing many of these same faces in the aforementioned Wickerr Stakes but makes the third start of the form cycle today for trainer Phil D’Amato and could be ready for a top effort. The G2-winning 4-year-old colt fired a sharp five-furlong bullet drill around the dogs on August 25.
