Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Keepmesane (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 2-3-6
2-Sacred Sound appears primed to break through this afternoon for trainer Peter Miller after flashing solid early zip before tiring to third on June 12 while earning a field’s best (70) grass Beyer. The 4-year-old daughter of Om makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon, retains Hernandez, and may be long gone on the front end. 3-Balaza returns off an eight-month layoff for the Mullins barn and has likely matured substantially over the last several months as she kicks off her 3-year-old campaign. Both grass sprint tries over the local course last fall were decent. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 6-Maggles McGee has finished second in three of four career turf tries and is back off the mini-freshening for conditioner George Paparodromou. The dark bay filly switches to Rispoli.
Race #2: Selections: 7-9-6
The 6-for-19 7-Pop Rox was on a roll in South Florida last winter, putting together four straight wins before returning to Churchill this spring and finishing a tough-trip fourth. The Jose D’Angelo-trained filly looks to take advantage of the ship-and-win program here, and this filly has run above par for this class level. 9-La Scaloneta was a strong 3 ¾-length winner when last seen last October, when claimed by current conditioner Mark Glatt, and has trained steadily over at San Luis Rey for today’s return to action. This barn can get them ready off the bench. 6-Ro Town drops in for a career-low $10k claiming tag today off the 2-month mini-freshening after being snagged for slightly more back in May. The 6-time winner is quick enough to potentially clear this field this afternoon, and that may be all that is needed to get him back into the winner’s circle.
Race #3: Selections: 7-2-3
7-Highly Ambition is one of only two juvenile colts with racing experience, and while no threat to the runaway winner that afternoon at Gulfstream, he exits a debut running third for conditioner Jose D’Angelo. He draws a cozy outside post and is dangerous with any normal second-out progression. Off nearly three months, 2-Ocean Club makes his Stateside unveiling today for trainer George Papaprodromou off two five-furlong sprint efforts overseas. A sharp five-furlong drill over the Del Mar main track on July 25 hints at ability, and the colt picks up veteran pilot Joe Bravo, who had a pair of winners last week. 3-Brockster, by elite sire Into Mischief, has been training swiftly for Luis Mendez, which includes back-to-back bullet sub :47 drills over at Santa Anita.
Race #4: Selections: 7-5-8
7-Keepmesane should break through today in start number three for trainer Doug O’Neill. The Grazen juvenile drops another notch off an improved third on June 20, when showing better early foot, and appears all set for a career-best try. 5-Extraordinaire flashed speed and tired against Maiden Special Weights on debut May 24 and drops in for a tag for start number two; improvement likely. 8-Romanticon (by Bodexpress) drops from $50k maiden claimers to $20,000 this afternoon off a wide trip fifth on debut at Los Al.
Race #5: Selections: 6-7-5
Dirt to turf 6-Mr. Disrespectful has won two straight for trainer Craig Dollase, exiting a career-best dirt Beyer (91) with the 3 ¼-length 7-furlong score on July 5. He appears poised to get another favorable upfront pressing trip again this afternoon back on grass going long. The 7-time winning versatile gelding has shown an affinity for adapting to different distances and surfaces with great success. The multiple stakes-winning 7-Come On Om is 1-for-1 going this 1 1/16-mile trip and consistently fires competitive turf Beyers for the Pederson barn. The 6-year-old gelding has been freshened since his runner-up in the Crystal Water S. Late-closing 5-Old Pal returns off an 8-month layoff and usually at the mercy of the pace with his running style. Nonetheless, he always fires, and he drops out of the G2 Seabiscuit into this softer spot this afternoon for trainer Mark Glatt. The gritty gelding has proved he can run well off the bench and is reunited with Hernandez.
Race #6: Selections: 4-5-6
Turf to dirt 4-D Day Sky ships in on the class plunge for trainer Peter Eurton and should get a favorable race shape from off the pace today, if the TimeformUS projection proves accurate. The gelding is 1-for-19 but drops from a $25k claimer at Horseshoe Indy to $12,500 this afternoon, and is likely to be picking up the pieces late. The lightly raced 5-Big Reflections slashes his claiming tag in half off a very wide fifth-place effort over the track on July 17 with a competitive Beyer when facing winners for the first time. Both Beyers, from the last start and his maiden-breaking victory two-back, certainly put him in the mix. 6-Forza Azurri has never tried dirt but takes a substantial drop in class this afternoon for team Miller, and his a.m. drills over dirt indicate he may successfully take to the surface. Rosario on.
Race #7: Selections: 1-3-10
1-Silkie Sevei (Ire) has yet to find her groove since arriving stateside for D’Amato last winter, but drops in for a tag this afternoon off the two-month mini-freshening, and gets a far better inside draw today. 3-Zuraya (GB) finished a much-improved runner-up with the class plunge and addition of blinkers on June 6, and figures to get another favorable upfront-pressing trip today on the stretch out. The McCarthy barn reaches out to go-to pilot Umberto Rispoli. 10-Sensational Dream is drawn wide but has run well at this level for trainer Adam Kitchingman. However, both grass starts over the Del Mar course were subpar efforts. The daughter of Street Sense is back off a 4-month layoff today and drilled a sharp four furlongs in :47.2 gate drill over the main track on July 25.
Race #8: Selections: 8-1-10
The Team O’Neill-trained 8-Decisive Win shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon after a subpar effort around two turns on June 15 when getting cooked chasing some taxing splits. Two-back, the $600k son of Nyquist was a 5 ½-length maiden romping winner going a mile, and the colt is likely to bounce back today, making the third start off the bench. Baffert’s 1-San Saba returns off a 553-day hiatus. The $775,000 Justify colt broke his maiden way back in January 2025 before hitting the sidelines after two starts. His works have been solid, but he may need one race to get the rust off. 10-Santarena has more underneath finishes than wins, evidenced by his 13-1-6-1 mark for Glatt, but has put up some solid main track Beyer speed figures on the resume and should be ready to run his best today, third start of the current form cycle.
Race #9: Selections: 1-3-5
The $3 low-takeout (15%) Late Pick 3 starts here. The lightly raced 1-Wiki Cane hasn’t been out since the end of November of last year, but was a 4 ¼-length maiden-breaking turf sprint winner over this course, and looks geared up to make some noise this campaign. The gelded son of Bodexpress worked a second best of 101 workers in :47.2 from the gate on July 25, and lures Hernandez off the freshening. 3-Ballyvaughan Gig has sharp gate speed and is a logical fit off back-to-back Beyers of 81 and 86 for conditioner Isidoro Tamayo. 5-Scene by Me (by Sir Prancealot) has run well in three of four grass sprints for the Glatt barn and returns off the mini-freshening for this. The 4-year-old’s main track drills have been appealing for a barn that does well with the 61–180-day sweet spot for layoffs.
Race #10: Selections: 1-2-8
Juddmonte’s 1-Chasten ships in for trainer Brad Cox off a 6 ¼-length route win at Delaware Park in the June 13 Obeah S. The 4-year-old daughter of Into Mischief is 4-for-8 lifetime, draws a cozy inside post for her Southern California unveiling, and figures to sit off and stalk a likely spirited early race flow. The multiple graded stakes-winning 2-Om n Joy exits a solid 3 ¾-length victory in the short 4-horse San Margarita (G2) on May 30, and should get the pace she needs today to come with her traditional closing run. The Aggie Ordonez-trained filly loves the Del Mar main track. 8-Seismic Beauty ran poorly as the 2-5 odds-on betting choice in the aforementioned San Margarita to start her 2026 campaign- a race she won last year, followed by a winning performance in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch last summer with a sparkling (110) Beyer. The question remains, however, whether she’s the same horse she was a 4-year-old for Team Baffert. In addition, the mare has other inside speed to deal with again this afternoon.
Race #11: Selections: 11-1-10-2
11-Born to Rock gets a tough outside draw but drops in for a first-time tag today for McCarthy while making his second start off the bench. The barn is 11-for-36 (31%) with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers in turf routes, and this colt finished second twice over this course last summer. He’s reunited with Rispoli. The Hess-trained 1-Fausto makes career start number 12 today, but co-tops the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (74) with his recent runner-up finish on June 13, and figures to sit a favorable trip with the rail draw. 10-Timayyy ships in from the Midwest for new trainer Brian Lynch and drops again after three somewhat disappointing efforts this year at Churchill. If the War Front gelding can somehow get back to that (77) grass Beyer he earned at Ellis last summer, he’d be a serious win threat at this $50k maiden claiming level. An encouraging sign to see Hernandez take over the 9-start maiden for his local Southern California unveiling. The speedy 2-Lorenzo is a 10-start maiden exiting the same race as Fausto. The 4-year-old gelding has hit the board in five of nine lifetime tries but has surrendered the lead in all of his starts this current campaign.
