Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Her Names Charlie (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 3-5-2
3-Decapo drew off to a strong 3 ½-length 6 ½-furlong score back on May 30, where he posted the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (86) for Rosario and Sadler. He shortens up to five panels today, and the second-place finisher Steak Fries from that last event came back to win last Saturday. The lightly raced 5-Liam Smith has won two straight, including a 11-length maiden-breaking romp in last after being claimed by trainer Jeff Mullins two back. The 3-year-old colt by Midshipman switches to turf today off the five-month freshening and is bred to handle grass. 2-Not A Sinner ran a good second against similar on June 15 and makes the third try of the current form cycle of an improving Beyer pattern.
Race #2: Selections: 3-5-1
The speedy 3-Little Tinker Elle sped away before tiring badly in her last start over at Los Al but adds Lasix today and should be able to establish an easier lead in this softer spot. The sophomore filly has worked twice since that subpar effort, including a bullet four furlongs in :46.4 on July 24. Class-dropping 5-Jasmina makes her second start off the eight-month layoff for conditioner Simon Callaghan and moves back to dirt off an even fourth against significantly better. She lost the head bob in the CTBA S. last August but was elevated to first via disqualification. She goes second-time Lasix today. 1-Dats Ms. Blame broke through in a big way with a 9-length maiden win on the class drop and move to dirt for Team O’Neill on June 20. The daughter of Blame looks well-placed for her first crack against winners
Race #3: Selections: 2-3-7
The Ryan Hanson-trained 2-Her Names Charlie is the deserving favorite after a sharp five-furlong turf debut try on June 14 when showing good early zip before surrendering late to finish second in a well-backed unveiling. The daughter of G1 winner Golden Pal should prove to be a handful with any normal second-out progression. 3-Candy Cole ships in from Gulfstream on the surface switch after flashing speed and tiring to fourth in the short field Proud Man S. July 5 on debut. The Twirling Candy juvenile worked a sharp “best of 38” four furlongs in :47.1 over the local footing July 23. This barn did have a winner here last summer. 7-Madrina Mia (by Essential Quality) had a nice improved four-furlong drill over the main track on July 24 leading up to this initial try, and trainer Luis Mendez sent out grass sprint debut winner Bullwhacker last Thursday.
Race #4: Selections: 3-1-6
Plagued by layoff lines, the multiple Grade 1 runner-up 6-year-old 3-Hejazi is back off the year-long hiatus for Team Baffert. The son of Bernardini usually fires fresh, and he’s run well in all three Del Mar appearances. He figures for an upfront pressing journey with the barn’s go-to pilot Juan Hernandez. 1-Simple Song exits a recent second in the Triple Blend (G3), where he posted a career-best (92) Beyer and now shortens back up to his preferred six-furlong trip. The 4-year-old gelding is lightly raced and still offers upside for trainer Mark Glatt. The multiple stakes-winning 6-Speedy Wilson turns back in distance today and returns to Del Mar, where he has a solid 6-3-1-1 mark. The D’Amato charge looks poised for another sharp performance based on the most recent five-furlong drill on July 25.
Race #5: Selections: 1-8-10
1-Penny Worth is back off a 10-month layoff for conditioner Phil D’Amato and takes a substantial class plunge from MDSW to today’s $12,5oo Maiden Claiming level. Ordinarily this would be a major red flag, and it still might be, but they didn’t pay much for this filly, and perhaps she’s appropriately placed for the win off the shelf. 8-Blame it On Abby shortens back up to a sprint today for Team Miller, exiting a beaten favorite fourth as the 4-5 choice at this level on July 4 over at Los Al. Perhaps she deserves another chance at today’s reduced level. She gets her sixth different jockey for start number nine. 10-Just Mendelssohn was eliminated when stumbling and unseating her rider when bet down to second choice on the class drop and switch to dirt on June 27 at Los Al. Another chance for this reduced tag, and this Brendan Galvin-trained daughter of Mendelssohn is not without a chance.
Race #6: Selections: 9-8-1
A beaten favorite in his last three of four starts, 9-Kokosan drops in class off the mini-freshening for trainer John Sadler and has enough positional speed to find his way over from today’s outside draw. A strong “best of 97” bullet four furlongs in:47.1 on July 25 indicates a sharp try is forthcoming. Rosario climbs aboard. 8-Tribal gets some class relief this afternoon, dropping from $30k claimers to today’s $22.500 level for trainer Doug O’Neill, who is off to a fast start this summer meet. 1-Sand Bagger is a logical fit based on his last two turf route Beyers (81,79) for trainer Gary Stute, and the 5-year-old gelding draws the rail off a recent second against similar back on May 10.
Race #7: Selections: 8-11-7
Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Reddam Racing’s 8-Pavlovian was badly outrun in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Matt Winn (G3) in his most recent try, and now shortens back up to sprinting for Team O’Neill. The class relief and turnback to one turn should help this Pavel colt get back on track. Overmatched in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and San Felipe (G2) earlier in the year, 11-Start the Ride found his best stride in the last three starts facing softer for trainer Dan Blacker. The Upstart colt should appreciate the turnback to seven furlongs this afternoon, exiting a good second in the June 27 Los Al Derby (G2). 7-Fionello finished behind Start the Ride in the aforementioned Los Al Derby but is another who should benefit with the cutback in distance today, sporting the field’s best last-out pace figure, in a race that’s projected to have a spirited early race flow.
Race #8: Selections: 3-11-6-1
A robust field of 11 sophomore fillies going one mile on turf closes out the Friday afternoon card, and it’s a difficult race to get a solid hold on. It looks like a spread event for multi-race purposes. 3-Helping Hand finished a troubled trip fourth when bumped and impeded at the break on debut May 22, a race that’s turned into a very productive “key” race producing four next-out winners. The Mo Forza filly adds blinkers for career try number two, and her pedigree suggests that today’s stretch-out to one mile should be within reach. 11-Impressionistic rallied smartly for the show spot, improving her Beyer by some 30-plus points in start number two, and now makes the all-important third try for trainer Leonard Powell. Two sprints to a route 6-Volcanologist exits a career-best runner-up effort on June 14 and should take to two turns nicely, being by Collected (16% grass routes). 1-Janz Joy (by Om) ran a decent third on debut May 17 over at Santa Anita for trainer Mark Glatt and should improve off that effort on the stretch-out. Glatt has solid above-average stats with second-time starters.
