Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Stay in Line (GB) (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 1-6-5
Trainer John Sadler sends out a pair of juvenile fillies in the Thursday opener. 1-Rosa’s Miracle adds blinkers after racing greenly in a well-bet unveiling here on opening day and switches to grass on the stretch-out for her second career try. She’s by Corniche, who is off to a fast start as a freshman sire (4-for-17/23%) and has plenty of turf on the dam side to indicate she’ll relish the surface switch and additional real estate. This barn is 7-for-28 (25%) with dirt-to-turf second-time starters. Two sprints to a route, 6-Lease Instead makes the all-important third career start after finishing an even third when switched to turf on June 14. The Reddam Racing juvenile is by hot sire Pavel, who has seen a string of runners run well over the Del Mar course already this summer meet. 5-Icecream Ontheside (by Grazen) goes dirt to turf on the stretch-out, while making the all-important third career start. This filly’s breeding suggests she should improve on grass.
Race #2: Selections: 1-8-6
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 1-Stay in Line finished a bang-up runner-up against a pair of today’s returning rivals, including upset 29-1 race winner Smile Baby Smile, and now goes first off the George Paparodromou claim. This outfit is a solid 12-for-40 (30%) with new barn acquisitions the past five years. 8-Tequilaandtherapy had an excusable very wide journey when last seen at Los Al on July 4 and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon going first off the Hector Palma claim. The 4-year-old filly was a minor stakes winner over this main track back in 2024, and this barn is 3-for-12 (25%) with a positive $2.48 ROI with dirt sprint newly acquired purchases. A solid 4 ½-length winner when claimed two-back, 6-Clubhouse Bride followed up that score with a good second back on May 3 against better and has trained fairly well in the interim.
Race #3: Selections: 6-5-4
While no match for race winner Photogenic, blinkers on 6-Sugar Reign ran her best race to date when she switched to the main track on June 28 at Los Al, finishing second. The daughter of Twirling Candy posted the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (53) with that runner-up try and is a solid win candidate with a similar effort. She figures for a favorable upfront journey today. 5-Lady Ruth has had several close-up finishes at this level going a mile and is a logical fit again switching to Rosario. 4-Springline makes career start number 13 today for trainer Ryan Hanson but slashes her claiming tag in half and has speed figures that match up well. The sophomore filly stretches back out this afternoon and ran second at this mile trip on dirt three-back with a (58) Beyer.
Race #4: Selections: 8-1-3
8-Zombo Bombo just beat $12,500 claimers by 2 ¼ lengths on June 26 at Los Alamitos and now shows up for a $6,250 tag for his third start of the current form cycle. He ran the best last-out Beyer (74) and looms a solid repeat candidate despite the suspicious class drop. Perhaps it’s a case of the ownership wanting to get into the winner’s circle at Del Mar. The veteran 10-year-old gelding 1-Windribbon continues to run well despite his age and comes off a 5 ½-furlong score on June 6, which was his 13th victory from 60 lifetime starts. He goes first off the Isidoro Tamayo claim today and came back to work nicely off that purchase, going four furlongs in :47.1 on July 18. 3-Came Out Fighting is 0-for-5 over the Del Mar course but ships back in from Oaklawn and takes a sizable class drop this afternoon from $12.5 claimers down to today’s $6,250 level. Jockey Juan Hernandez hops aboard the 8-time winner.
Race #5: Selections: 1-4-2
Trainer Phil D’Amato sends out a pair of gals in this $50k optional claiming grass route to close out the early pick five. The lightly raced 1-Kintrigue has shown good speed in all three lifetime starts and was overmatched in the Honeymoon S. in her most recent try on June 6 after breaking her maiden by a nose two-back. The daughter of McKinzie figures to make the lead this afternoon from the rail on the class drop and still has upside potential. Her stablemate 4-Rehearsal (Ire) is a logical fit off back-to-back seconds at this level, with duplicate (70) Beyers, but remains 0-for-11 at today’s one-mile trip. 2-Cat the Confidante (Ire) hasn’t been out in eight months for the Sadler barn, when finishing second over this course last November, but picks up Rosario off the bench and should work out a ground-saving journey with today’s inside draw.
Race #6: Selections: 5-4-1
Class dropping 5-Rhythem On Stage has done the majority of his running on turf, but switches back to the main track for the first time since last March for trainer Carla Gaines, gets Hernandez, and figures to be making up good ground in the stretch back out to a mile. 4-Fix It Quick ran a strong wide second off the May 25 claim for conditioner Isidoro Tamayo when last seen over at Los Al on June 27, and was a maiden-breaking come-from-behind winner over this course last August. 1-Bowtie Boys showed his customary early zip before tiring badly to finish last when last seen back on May 16, but has had a couple of months to recover from that subpar effort for trainer Tim Yakteen. He has a legitimate chance if he can run back to that gate-to-wire score and (77) Beyer at Santa Anita two back.
Race #7: Selections: 10-1-4
10-Syntax figures to attract a decent amount of public support off his 18-1 runner-up finish and (81) Beyer in the June 11 short field Desert Stormer S. She’ll make his first start in the Michael McCarthy barn off that encouraging try. The gray daughter of Pavel ran well in her lone try over this course on debut and has enough stalking early pace to get involved from the outside draw. 1-Redheaded Reba has run well in all four lifetime tries, never finishing out of the money for trainer Daniel Dunham, and figures to sit directly behind the pacesetters with Berrios, who’s superb at saving ground and tipping out for the stretch drive. The lightly raced 4-La Silenciosa wasn’t too far behind Redheaded Reba in her most recent try when finishing a beaten favorite fourth when stepping up to face winners, and now returns off the mini-freshening for trainer Victor Garcia. A return to her 7 ½-length maiden romp and (74) Beyer from two-back certainly puts her in the mix.
Race #8: Selections: 5-9-4
5-Storm Lady (GB) returns off a 11-month hiatus for conditioner Carla Gaines, who has excellent stats with long turf returnees with Kimura riding. From a small sample, Kimura is 3-for-8 (38%) with a $5.95 ROI according to DRF Formulator and has two wins and a second with the last three barns’ grass starters off breaks. The 4-year-old filly plots within striking distance of this field, and looks well-placed off the break. 9-Velvet Reign (Ire) makes her second Stateside start for Team O’Neill after finishing a weakening sixth on June 6 over at Santa Anita. She’s likely to move forward today on the stretch-out, however, posting a much-improved “best of 38” bullet four furlongs over the track on July 23. That June 6 event has produced a pair of next-out winners, and she did finish second and third in bulky fields when back in Ireland last fall. The Jeff Mullins-trained 4-Winika finished a decent third when facing several of today’s returning rivals on June 16 and is back at Del Mar where he was runner-up last November. The 4-year-old filly makes her third start of the current form cycle, retains Hernandez, and has worked three times since that last effort.
