Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Formidable Man (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 1-4-7
The 6-year-old mare 1-Candy Bar adds blinkers on the stretch-out for her return to Del Mar, and exits a recent third behind repeat winner Longe Mayshe Reign. She was a solid winner at this level and distance last fall, while switching to Kimura this afternoon. A wide trip fifth in last, class-dropping 4-Shocking Grey makes her second start off the 11-month layoff for Mullins and stretches out back out to her preferred one-mile trip, where she sports a solid 8-2-1-3 record. 7-Sareeha (Ire) is 10-for-34 lifetime, with nine of those wins coming at today’s one-mile trip. The 7-year-old mare drops in class this afternoon, looking for a rebound effort, exiting a speed and fade against better on June 5.
Race #2: Selections: 2-3-5
A short but contentious field of Maiden Special Weight 3-year-olds & up go one mile in leg two of the early pick five. I’d use all three of these on my multi-race tickets. 2-Van Gogh Style ran his best race to date on the stretch-out to today’s one-mile distance after flashing good speed and finishing second on June 6, and is the gelding to run down this afternoon after posting the field’s best (66) main track Beyer. Sprint to route 3-Mickey finished a sharp closing second when dismissed at 23-1 on debut back on May 22 for the Brinkerhoff barn and has trained well in the interim. Rosario hops aboard the gelded son of Gem Heist, who is 4-for-18 (22%) with dirt route runners. 5-Zakiel finished a solid third on debut after a very wide journey before settling for the show spot for trainer Peter Eurton. The gray gelding stretches out in career try number two for a barn that has strong second-time starter stats.
Race #3: Selections: 6-7-1
The Doug O’Neill-trained 6-Let Her Fly ships in from Churchill off a recent five-furlong runner-up finish on June 19 over a pair of next-out winners and should relish the additional real estate being by Twirling Candy, who is 16% with turf routers. Trainer Michael McCarthy sends out three juvenile colt firsters in this challenging grass route. 7-Super Spike is by freshman sire Mandaloun, who has already produced a pair of juvenile winners from 12 starters. The 2-year-old colt lures Hernandez at first asking, who has done well with this barn’s firsters in the past. His stablemate 1-Dream Seeker (by Girvin) gets a cozy inside draw off a steady work tab and gets Hall of Famer John Velasquez in the saddle, who is in town to ride Formidable Man in the Eddie Read (G2) for this barn.
Race #4: Selections: 3-4-5
Maiden winner 3-Medjugorje edged clear for the sharp win at 13-1 in her first start on dirt back on May 29 and has trained well in the interim for conditioner Richard Mandella, which includes a July 8 five-furlong drill in :59.1. That last (78) Beyer matches up well here, and she’s likely to get a contested pace to run into. 4-Rabeeba, a $750k Keeneland September 2024 purchase by Curlin, was a sharp odds-on winner on debut at Los Al for Team Baffert on June 19, and takes the next step up the class ladder on the stretch out. The well-bred sophomore filly has trained solidly three times since that winning debut effort. Her stablemate 5-Cipriani adds blinkers today, making her third start of the long layoff and was the beaten favorite in the last pair. The $875k daughter of Bernardini is reunited with Hernandez this afternoon and can rebound off that last subpar fifth-place effort at Los Al.
Race #5: Selections: 2-5-7
Firster 2-Verenice is one of two from the Carla Gaines barn, and this gal has trained smartly for her initial turf sprint try. She’s by G1 winner Cistron, who is 4-for-10 (40%) with juvenile debut runners. The 3-year-old filly debuts with Lasix and gets excellent turf pilot Jaramillo in the saddle. The Michael McCarthy-trained 5-Come On Om just missed by a nose on debut going six panels on grass, and followed up that sharp try with a speed-and-fade fourth on June 14 as the beaten 4-5 favorite. She’s likely to rebound today, making the all-important third career try. The 5-year-old mare 7-Zuzo’s Classic Gal is a logical fit in start number two after a solid five-furlong runner-up grass debut on June 12 for trainer Mark Glatt, where she posted a (71) Beyer. This top barn is, however, 0-for-8 with grass sprint second-time starters at Del Mar.
Race #6: Selections: 11-1-5-2
A full field of three- and four-year-old low-level maiden claiming fillies kicks off the traditional $2 Pick Six. 11-My Babycakes is rounding into form for trainer Doug O’Neill, finishing a much-improved beaten-favored third on the class drop and move to dirt in start number two at Los Al on July 5, facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 3-year-old daughter of Liam’s Map followed up that effort with a solid four-furlong work in :46.3 on July 22 and should be set for her best in career try number three. 1-Cotta Ride was eased and walked off the course in a bad return effort at Los Al off a seven-month layoff on June 21 when bet down to the second choice. The daughter of Clubhouse Ride adds Lasix today and drops from a maiden $50k down to $16,000. 5-Perfect Smile finished second and third over this main track last summer and now makes the key third start of the current form cycle for Rosario and Miller. 2-Salty Siss makes career try number 10 this afternoon and is hard to back with much confidence but has posted some of the fastest main track speed figures in this weak field.
Race #7: Selections: 4-1-2
Florida shipper 4-Poseidon’s Law is lightly raced and makes his first start off a seven-month freshening for conditioner Jose D’Angelo. The Tiz the Law 4-year-old posted a strong (89) grass Beyer in his Gulfstream grass sprint win before hitting the sidelines and trained smartly at Palm Meadows before catching a plane to Southern California. Winless Stateside, 1-Rogue Legend (GB) likely needed his last start at Santa Anita when back off a seven-month freshening for the D’Amato barn, finishing an even sixth after breaking slowly, but figures to be much tighter this afternoon, second off the bench. The gray colt has hit the board in seven of eight turf sprint tries, with both wins coming over in Ireland. The Glatt-trained 2-Private Gem ran a better-than-looks fourth against several of these on June 14, worked well over the main track following that effort on July 18, and is likely to run well here making his third start of the current form cycle.
Race #8: Selections: 1-3-6
1-How Lovely ran decent in her only dirt try in 13 lifetime starts last December and has solid early zip to coincide with today’s rail draw. The Steve Knapp-trained 4-year-old filly takes a big class plunge from a starter allowance to today’s $16k claimer. 3-Spotted Haze was trounced in her most recent try back on May 10 when flashing her customary early speed and tiring badly but is back sprinting today off the mini-freshening for Mullins and Hernandez. Claimed out of her last two starts, 6-Donttellourwives makes her initial try for conditioner Francisco Rodriguez after finishing a closing wide fourth at Los Al on June 21. This barn has solid stats with newly acquired purchases and the filly retains Rosario.
Race #9: Selections: 8-5-3
Last year’s winner 8-Formidable Man (who has banked over $1.6 million lifetime) returns for the repeat for trainer Michael McCarthy, having won three of his last four starts, including the G1 Shoemaker at Santa Anita when last seen back on May 25. This talented 5-year-old, who finished second behind multiple Grade 1 winner Notable Speech in last year’s BC Mile (G1), loves the Del Mar turf course (7-6-1-0) and is 4-for-6 at 1 1/8 miles. Johnny V is in for the ride. The veteran 8-year-old gelding 5-Gold Phoenix (Ire) has shown no signs of slowing down, having won two of his last three tries, including a powerful five-length romp in the June 14 San Juan Capistrano (G3). He’s 5-for-10 over the Del Mar lawn, banked over $2.4 million, and looks set to potentially snag another graded stakes victory. Today’s likely frontrunner, 3-Cabo Spirit, finished second behind the top choice in last year’s edition and returns fresh for the Papaprodromou barn. This battle-tested 7-year-old gelding makes start number 43 today, facing many familiar faces.
Race #10: Selections: 1-4-10
Two of the three career wins for 1-Big Juanito have come over the Del Mar main track and grass course for trainer Bob Hess. The 6-year-old gelding drops back down to the $10k claiming level this afternoon, where he finished a decent third two-back and should run well today for the third try of the current form cycle. A winner at this level two-back with a competitive (76) dirt Beyer, 4-Royal ‘n Rando was stuck wide for a good portion of his most recent effort on June 6 and should rebound this afternoon with a better journey. Rosario sticks. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 10-Mongolian Max ran a better-than-looks troubled trip fifth on July 4 when finishing behind the 1-2 finishers of that race who also return here. The gray gelding drops below the $16k purchase price made by the Miyadi barn two back.
Race #11: Selections: 4-1-2
4-Fibonaccis Ride is a strong win candidate in the Sunday nightcap, exiting back-to-back seconds at this level over at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old filly should get a live race flow to close into today if the projected TimeformUS swift early pace comes to fruition. The Mark Glatt-trained 1-It’s a Fairlife (by Grazen) is a 3-year-old facing a handful of 4-year-olds, but was a winner on debut in her lone start over this grass course and trip back in late August of last year, and has trained exceptionally well for a good layoff barn. The filly’s “best of 95” bullet :59 flat gate drill over the main track certainly catches the eye. Lasix on. 2-Ryan’s Girl has limited turf experience but does have a whirlwind of speed and has won four of her last five dirt starts, including her most recent try over at Los Al on July 5.
