Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Motga (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 1-3-9
Four graded stakes highlight the blockbuster 11-race Saturday Pacific Classic Day program!
Blinkers off, 1-Bogarts Bucchero stretches back out to a mile this afternoon for Team O’Neill while dropping in for a first-time tag. This 3-year-old gelding has run above par for this class level for the meet’s leading conditioner and should fall into a favorable stalking journey. Trainer John Sadler sends out three geldings in this spot. 3-Plattenberg Bay finished a much-improved third (beaten a half-length) on the class drop and stretch-out in last, and Rosario sticks here. His stablemate 9-Mighty Toro is also dropping in for a first-time tag. The gelding showed good early zip at 37-1 through some taxing early splits before tiring to finish sixth off a nine-month layoff on July 18, and figures to be much tighter today, second off the bench.
Race #2: Selections: 2-9-6
2-Church Lady (Ire) has never tried dirt in 11 lifetime starts but slashes his claiming tag in half today off nearly a six-month layoff on the turnback for a new barn, and has the right late running style in a race that’s projected to be highly contested early on. 9-Shady Stripes was an 8 ½-length maiden runaway winner two back and followed up that score with a good second against winners on July 25. Both main track Beyers of 67 and 69 make her a logical win threat again this afternoon, but she does have other speed to deal with this afternoon. 6-My Girl Mia is a maiden facing winners, but has shown good early speed in her last pair of sprint tries for Team O’Neill, while making her second try off the seven-month freshening.
Race #3: Selections: 10-4-5
A beaten favorite in the last 10-Ventry Strand deserves another chance today at this reduced level for trainer John Sadler. The Bolt d’Oro colt makes his second start off the bench and should get plenty of early pace to run into while stretching out an additional sixteenth of a mile. Rosario hops aboard this afternoon. The speedy 4-Trump Era set some taxing early splits before fading to finish a solid runner-up to repeat winner Steak Fries back on July 25 but will likely sit behind Naftis today and get first run on the deep closers. That career-best (83) Beyer is nearly on par for this class level. Plagued by layoff lines, 5-Stylishlyacclaimed returns off the three-month mini-freshening for the red-hot Carla Gaines barn, and this 6-year-old gelding was a maiden winner over this course back in 2024. His versatile running style should serve him well in this spot.
Race #4: Selections: 5-3-7
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair of well-bred firsters on Pacific Classic day, which usually means they’re serious runners. 5-Motga is a $1.05 million OBS purchase by Mo Town, who gets an ordinary 11% with his juvenile debuting prodigy, out of an Into Mischief dam. This colt has trained in the a.m. with purpose and should come out rolling with the barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez. His stablemate 3-Babe’s Empire is a $525k Keeneland purchase by Curlin and has also trained well for this afternoon’s unveiling. Jockey Florent Geroux rides and is 5-for-13 (38%) with a $3.87 ROI with this barn’s firsters the past four years. 7-Psalm is a $1.25 million Keeneland purchase by Into Mischief for trainer Michael McCarthy. He draws a cozy outside post and has worked splendidly in the a.m., including a “best of 106” bullet four furlongs in :47 flat on Aug. 8. Jockey Junior Alvarado gets the mount on this well-bred, pricey colt.
Race #5: Selections: 6-3-5
The veteran 8-year-old gelding 6-Motorious (GB) has won the last three editions of this race for trainer Phil D’Amato. He came out a nose shy in 2025, but was placed first via a controversial DQ when race winner Reef Runner was disqualified for interference at the break. The 10-time winner had a perfect prep for this when runner-up in an allowance event on July 19 off the six-month layoff and should be primed for another top effort. 3-Man O Rose is 12 for 20 lifetime and has proven to be equally effective on dirt and turf for trainer Jeff Mullins. He’s won five of his last six starts and figures to sit directly behind the inside likely pacesetter Monster while getting first run on the race closers. 5-Sumter has traded punches with Motorious over the past couple of seasons and won that aforementioned July 19 event while consistently running Beyers in the low 90s. He’s one of several in here who could win this race with the right trip.
Race #6: Selections: 6-9-3-5
6-Furiosity is a $450k daughter by Into Mischief (15% juvenile debut runners & 17% sprinters) debuting for the Baffert barn off a steady and spirited worktab. She picks up the barn’s go-to pilot Juan Hernandez and looks fast off the blocks. Her stablemate 9-Sea’s No Joke (by Practical Joke) has also trained with purpose and would be no surprise. Geroux has this second-call assignment like in the juvenile colt Maiden edition in race four. 3-Miss Midterm is by Grade 1 winner Early Voting, who is an impressive 6-for-22 (27%) with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The colt debuts for Team O’Neill, who is atop the meet’s training standings and showing no signs of slowing down. Turf-to-dirt Saratoga invader 5-Girls Wear Pearls holds the experience edge over most of these gals for trainer Jena Antonucci, who has shipped out all live runners this summer. She worked well over the Del Mar main track Aug. 12.
Race #7: Selections: 5-7-2
A difficult $100k optional claiming grass route kicks off the Saturday late pick five. 5-American Hope drops back in for a tag this afternoon and should get plenty of early pace to help with his customary late closing kick. The 5-year-old switches to Rosario, who is a solid 5-for-9 (56%) overall with a $5.16 ROI when riding for these connections. 7-Captain Choochies looks to get back on track this afternoon after stumbling badly at the start, rushing up into contention, and then fading badly late. The gelding had a six-race win streak before getting upended in the American (G3) in the spring. 2-Charlie’s to Blame has good positional speed and an inside draw, which could prove key, exiting back-to-back runner-up efforts.
Race #8: Selections: 6-5-4-9
6-Frosty Indulgence slashes his claiming tag in half after a non-threatening, well-beaten seventh in his first tour over the track on July 25. A much-improved four-furlong a.m. drill on Aug. 13 and a switch to Rispoli hint at improvement this afternoon. The lightly raced 5-Pure Madness has run first or second in all six lifetime tries for conditioner Brian Koriner and makes the third start of the current form cycle this afternoon. He was turned back by Native Land in last but could easily reverse that decision today after coming back to work a sharp four furlongs on Aug. 15. 4-Native Land shipped over from Oaklawn off the claim and sprung the 22-1 upset on July 18 over a trio of today’s returning rivals, when posting a career-best (94) Beyer speed figure. The 5-year-old gelding is back in for the $50k tag today, looking for the potential repeat. 9-Santarena goes two sprints to a route while making his third start off the bench for Glatt.
Race #9: Selections: 4-9-3
European invader 4-Green Carrera (GB) ships in for trainer Joseph O’Brien in solid form, having finished first or second in five of seven career tries. The 3-year-old filly defeated a bulky field of 30 in the Sandringham H. two-back at Ascot and likely matches up well against this group of sophomores in what appears not to be the saltiest edition of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. 9-Kensington Lane (Ire) was a 23-1 upset winner of the July 4 Belmont Oaks (G1) at Saratoga in his first run on American soil, earning a field’s best co-topping (93) turf Beyer. Since then, she’s been switched to the Phil D’Amato barn, and now makes her initial run in Southern California off a steady local work tab. 3-Tam Tam ships in from Churchill Downs off an impressive 5 ¾-length score in the Tepin S. on June 27 in fast time for conditioner Phil Bauer and projects to be able to clear this field this afternoon moving inside. The 3-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is dangerous if able to replicate that Midwest form over the Del Mar turf course.
Race #10: Selections: 3-11-7
Japan invader 3-Finger (Jpn) has finished first or second in all of his eight lifetime starts and has been well-rested since disposing of a field of 16 in the June 10 Tokyo Derby. His trainer Tanaka Hiroyasu finished second with Rousham Park in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf at 22-1, and this sophomore son of Gun Runner looks well-meant for his U.S. unveiling. The Godolphin homebred 11-Knightsbridge posted an eye-catching year’s best (122) Beyer speed figure with a 10 ¼-length runaway romp in the July 18 Monmouth Cup (G3) and will look to notch his first Grade 1 win for the Mott barn, stretching out to the 1 1/4-mile trip. The ultra-talented Nyquist 5-year-old has seven wins from 11 starts and has only finished off the board once in his impressive resume. He’s quick enough to clear this field from his outside post or sit if need be. 7-Hit Show is slowly rounding back into form after his disappointing fifth-place finish in this year’s edition of the Dubai World Cup (G1) and has the right closing style in a race that’s top-heavy with speed. The 6-year-old is 12 for 27 lifetime and is closing in on $10 million in earnings.
Race #11: Selections: 7-1-5
A runner-up in the last two editions, perhaps 7-Almendares (GB) is ready to break through this afternoon for the D’Amato barn. The 6-time winning gelding was a troubled trip sixth when hitting the rail coming into the stretch for the first time in the Eddie Read (G2) and never really picked up his feet thereafter. He shortens back up to his preferred one-mile trip this afternoon and is likely to get back to showing his traditional late burst, like he did in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) and American (G3), two and three back. Third in this event last year, the $1.4 million earner 1-Cabo Spirit just missed by a nose in the aforementioned July 26 Eddie Read behind Golden Phoenix and now shortens back up to a mile while drawing the advantageous rail. The 7-year-old gelding figures to get a jump on the other speed drawn on the far outside. Group 2 placed overseas, 5-Detain makes his first stakes try Stateside for trainer Michael McCarthy, but exits a sharp stepping-stone allowance score on July 17, and could be ready to handle these types in his third try of the current form cycle.
