Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Citizen Barrett (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 5-1-2
5-Desert Rocket finished a troubled trip fifth as the beaten favorite on Oct. 4 at Santa Anita but now returns to Del Mar, where he ran two of the best efforts to date with runner-up finishes. A repeat of his August 25 try should be enough to handle this group, and Rispoli sticks. 1-Andtheomofthebrave rallied well for the show spot in his Oct. 19 unveiling against softer despite getting bumped and squeezed at the start. A logical threat in start number two despite the hike up to face Maiden Special Weights. 2-Just a Graze returns off a five-month freshening and makes the all-important third career try for conditioner Mike Puype. When last seen back in June, he finished a solid second at Santa Anita at this level.
Race #2: Selections: 4-1-5
Trainer Bob Baffert has four of the five fillies entered in the Desi Arnaz $100k Stake. 4-Silent Law (by Tiz the Law) is 2 for 2, having won both main track sprint tries by a combined 13 ½ lengths. This juvenile filly has run the fastest Beyer speed figures in the field and should have little trouble getting an additional furlong. The G1 Del Mar Debutante winner, 1-Tenma, shortens back up this afternoon and returns to Del Mar, where she’s undefeated. She’ll need to run faster to beat her stablemate, but this daughter of Nyquist is fully capable of doing just that and fired a strong bullet “best of 24” four-furlongs in :47 flat on Nov. 7. 5-Mawu (a $500k daughter of Blame) defeated next-out winner Aunt Mo in an impressive debut on Oct. 6 and has worked well since that effort.
Race #3: Selections: 4-2-7
4-Renatus returns to her preferred surface (turf) after getting outrun in the seven-furlong main track Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stake on Nov. 1. She finished a solid second and third going this one-mile turf trip two and three-back over this strip and is eligible to bounce back in this spot. 2-Hey Jessie finished an OK fourth in her Oct. 19 debut behind Renatus and can improve today with any normal second-out progression. 7-Less Is More stretches out around two turns for the first time this afternoon for Team O’Neil and projects to be on or close to the lead. Hernandez takes over the riding assignment.
Race #4: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Southern Slang slashes his claiming tag in half after finishing a tiring fourth on Oct. 19, returning from a 14-month hiatus for trainer Mark Glatt. The lightly-raced 3-year-old gelding should be much tighter this afternoon, making his second start off the extended break, and this barn is off to a quick start, clicking over 40%. 2-Ocasek finished a decent close-up third when trying winners for the first time in his most recent try on Oct. 26 and fits well again in here. 1-Red On Sunday broke through the Maiden ranks in career start number seven with an 11-1 upset win on Oct. 20 and seems appropriately placed by conditioner Peter Miller for his first crack against winners.
Race #5: Selections: 5-2-1
A multiple winner over this grass course and today’s five-furlong trip, 5-Tigerhon (Fr) should rally strongly again through the lane for trainer Mark Glatt and jockey Umberto Rispoli. The fall Del Mar turf course has been kind to closers so far this meet. 2-Central Dispatch took to the grass just fine with a solid score on Oct. 6 and has worked four times since that winning effort. The John Sadler-trained son of Arrogate should be winging it again on the front end. The late-closing 1-Irideo (Arg) looks to make it two straight for trainer Marcelo Polanco and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (93). The veteran 8-year-old gelding is offered for the $100k claiming tag today.
Race #6: Selections: 5-2-6
5-Citizen Barrett was no match for the winner in his Oct. 11 debut but ran on well for the place spot against this level and gets a solid vote for trainer Richard Baltas in this weak $50K Maiden claiming event. 2-P Town Prancer adds blinkers and drops in for a first-time tag in career start number two for conditioner Jeff Bonde. The juvenile colt showed some early speed before fading in his Oct. 25 unveiling and is eligible to improve. 6-Master Jacques is the new face in a weak field for the Papaprodromou barn. He’s by Clubhouse Road, who gets an average of 12% with his debuting prodigy. The colt’s a.m. drills aren’t flashy, but this barn had a pair of winning Maiden Claiming first-time starts this past summer.
Race #7: Selections: 2-8-5
2-Headstrong Ways is by Munnings, who gets 14% with his juvenile debuting prodigy and turf sprinters. This 2-year-old filly has trained well for conditioner Richard Baltas, and this barn can win at first asking with grass debut sprinters. 8-Special Look flashed speed and tired in her Sept. 21 debut at Los Al for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. She switches to grass for start number two and has the pedigree to suggest turf will suit her just fine. This daughter of Candy Ride (Arg) is one of only three fillies in here with valuable racing experience. That experience should serve her well in this spot. 5-American Privilege (by American Pharoah) debuts for the red-hot Shirreffs barn (5-2-3-0) off a spirited work tab, but this outfit is 0 for 23 with turf sprint debut runner since 2019.
Race #8: Selections: 2-1-7
Turf to dirt 2-Afternoon Nap makes his main track debut for conditioner Carla Gaines off three solid grass sprint tries. He’s by Practical Joke, who gets an above-average 18% with dirt sprint prodigy, and this 4-year-old should sit a favorable stalking trip. 1-Black Beards Ghost drew away to a 3 ¼-length Maiden win in his Oct. 26 debut despite a tardy beginning for trainer Steve Knapp while earning a solid (78) Beyer for that effort. The gelding will need to break cleanly with today’s rail draw but is a threat for the repeat based on that solid unveiling. 7-Smiling Beast hasn’t been seen in six months since an impressive debut win on May 25 at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old gelding loses Hernandez to Afternoon Nap but has trained steadily the last several weeks.
Race #9: Selections: 6-11-8
6-Dangerous Affair finished well for the show spot at this level on Oct. 25 despite getting shuffled out of contention early on and now makes her second start off the bench for trainer Mark Glatt. This daughter of Violence had a “best of 90” four-furlong main track drill in :46.1 prior to that last start. 11-Last Elizabethan must negotiate a tricky outside post today for D’Amato but is a logical threat off of her recent runner-up finish when dropped to this level on Oct. 18. She finished in front of several of these that also return in this spot. Blinkers off 8-Fire Ban drops in for a first-time tag and ran close to par for this level two-back over this grass course.
