Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Royal Charter (GB) (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 3-1-2
3-Venice Vibe just missed by a nose in start number two for Baltas when finishing in front of Hearts Fantasy and earned the field’s best last-out Beyer figure for that effort. Another forward move in career start number three should elevate her to a Maiden-breaking victory. The obvious knock is the short price. 1-Hearts Fantasy has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start for trainer Ed Moger and exits a career-best third-place finish at this level on Oct. 19. 2-Buds N Suds shortens back up this afternoon off a runner-up try on Oct. 14 when dropped to this level for conditioner Steve Knapp. This juvenile filly defeated next-out winner She’s My Flame, who returned to win with a (54) Beyer.
Race #2: Selections: 6-1-5
6-Phosphorescence (Fr) had traffic problems for a good portion of the stretch drive on Oct. 11 at Santa Anita when finishing a beaten favorite fourth for conditioner Michael McCarthy and should make amends this afternoon with clear sailing late. The 4-year-old gelding was a winner over this grass course two-back. 1-For A Laugh (Ire) returns off a nine-month freshening for trainer Simon Callaghan and has trained steadily for today’s return to action. This 4-year-old colt has run well over this turf course and picks up red-hot Kimura, who had five winners last week. 5-Hula Candy adds blinkers and moves back to grass off the Jeff Mullins claim and is reunited with the winning pilot, Hector Berrios.
Race #3: Selections: 4-3-5
Second off the claim 4-Auditory returns to dirt, where he finished a good second two-back at this level going today’s one-mile trip. A tepid vote. Turf to dirt 3-Candyinthemorning goes two sprints to a route for conditioner Tim Yakteen on the class drop and is bred to manage two turns successfully. Her sire Candy Ride (ARG) gets 18% with dirt route prodigy. 5-Affair was trounced by double digits in both starts in 2024 but drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon (at today’s bottom $20k Maiden Claiming level), and this barn has solid stats with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. This 3-year-old filly is eligible to wake up in this soft spot.
Race #4: Selections: 1-7-3
1-Champagne Camie goes first off the claim for trainer John Sadler, who has above-average numbers with his new turf sprint acquisitions. This 5-year-old mare is proven sprinting over this grass course and figures to sit a favorable stalking, ground-saving trip with today’s rail draw. 7-A Real Jewel is a logical choice right back after finishing second at this same level on Oct. 14 at Santa Anita over two returning rivals. This veteran long-winning jockey-trainer combo sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (76). The 8-year-old mare 3-Rebalation has not been very competitive in recent months but takes a sizable class drop today and is eligible to improve. She should be making up good ground late.
Race #5: Selections: 8-7-6
The late-closing 8-Bag’s Gold goes turf to dirt and has the right off-the-pace running style that has been kind to closers so far in this meet. The gelding makes his second start off the Ryan Hanson claim and drops in class today. He should have enough early pace to run into. 7-Soul of Midnight slashes his claiming tag in half and makes the third start of the form cycle today for conditioner Steve Knapp. The 9-year-old gelding 6-Sunrise Journey drops to a career-low claiming tag today and has run well over this Del Mar main track from limited opportunities. The 17 for 57 veteran runner deserves a long look at this reduced level over his preferred racetrack.
Race #6: Selections: 9-8-6
Blinkers off 9-Cullen J holds valuable racing experience over most of this group of juvenile colts and geldings. He exits a sharp runner-up finish on Oct. 4 over a pair of next-out winners and shortens back up to five furlongs this afternoon. He’s likely to get a favorable pressing trip with today’s outside draw. 8-Sogno Di Vino (by Vino Ross0) debuts for trainer Peter Miller and attracts top turf rider Umberto Rispoli. 6-Triple Diamonds is by Sir Prancealot (Ire), who gets 9% with his debuting 2-year-olds and 19% overall with grass sprint starters. The juvenile gelding debuts for trainer Mark Glatt, who is off to a fast start this meet, but is only 2 for 47 (4%) the past four years with first-time starters sprinting on turf.
Race #7: Selections: 5-1-4
5-Anywho returns to Southern California off a subpar effort at Keeneland on Oct. 13 but is eligible to bounce back in this spot for trainer John Sadler. She finished third behind Sweet Azteca and Chimosa in the G3 Rancho Bernardo over this strip two-back and worked a sharp five furlongs on Nov. 10. She might sit the golden trip behind the expected frontrunners and post the mild upset. The Grade-1 winning 1-Tamara returns off a 1-year hiatus for trainer Richard Mandella off a spirited work tab. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro adds Lasix and starts her delayed 2024 campaign at six furlongs. Ar an expected short price, we’ll tray and beat her in this return spot. 4-Cliquish makes her first start in nine months for conditioner Phil D’Amato. The 4-year-old filly was an impressive 4 ¼-length winner against cheaper when last seen routing over this Del Mar main track last fall.
Race #8: Selections 1-5-7
1-Royal Charter (GB) drops out of the Swingtime Stakes into this softer spot this afternoon after having some traffic problems midstretch for trainer Leonard Powell. The 4-year-old filly switches to red-hot Kimura and is almost certain to get a better trip breaking from the rail once again. A runner-up in three of his last four tries, 5-Yerwanthere (Ire) finished second in the aforementioned Swingtime and now makes her second start off the mini-freshening for trainer Paddy Gallagher. There appears to be (at least on paper) plenty of early pace to help her utilize her strong late kick. 7-Paris Secret (Ire) is a G3 winner for D’Amato making only her third start this year. She had little chance trying to close from far back in her last pair behind slowly run races but should get a live race flow today. Most importantly, her recent subpar form is certain to discourage bettors and she’ll offer good value in the Friday nightcap.
