`Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Brave Blend (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 7-5-1
7-Double Cappuccino goes turf to dirt on the stretch-out while making her first Southern California start for trainer Michael McCarthy. She has enough grass pedigree on her dam side to suggest that today’s one-mile turf event will be within her wheelhouse. 5-Lila (by G1 winner Audible) is one of the new faces in a suspect group of MDSW fillies and lures Prat for trainer Richard Baltas. 1-Twirling Light switches back to grass into a softer spot and has trained well in recent weeks. The juvenile filly could be ready for a break-out performance.
Race #2: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Fifth Street slices his claiming tag in half for conditioner Tim Yakteen and exits a wide trip fifth when last seen on Halloween. 2-Mischelof (Chi) is another taking a significant class plunge this afternoon and sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (82). 1-Tallis hasn’t been out in 15 months for trainer Bob Hess but has run well off long breaks in the past and has speed figures that are on par for this class level.
Race #3: Selections: 11-6-13
Multiple stakes winner 11-On The Whim must negotiate today’s outside draw but lands in here as the fastest on speed figures and the class of this field. The 4 for 9 gelding has enough speed to get over, tuck in, and work out a favorable stalking journey. First-time gelded 6-Ciro di Marzio is the unknown for trainer Wesley Ward, making his first stateside start off a three-month freshening. He’s been training steadily at Keeneland for the U.S. unveiling and gest Lasix this afternoon. 13-Invigorated drew the worst of posts but ran on well for the show spot off of a six-month layoff on Nov. 2 and got Irad back in the saddle.
Race #4: Selections: 3-6-2
3-Wings of Freedom lost all realistic chance as the heavy chalk when stumbling badly at the start on Oct. 18. He quickly rushed up into contention after the mishap and tired badly after that. The Beyer figure earned for his Maiden score two-back over this strip makes him the horse to beat for Team O’Neill. 6-A Votre Sante is nicely drawn outside with pressing tactical early foot. He’s yet another exiting the Oct. 18 event and makes his second start off the bench for conditioner Adam Kitchingman. 2-Silverado Storm was overmatched in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes on Nov. 1, but this is a more realistic spot. The juvenile gelding was a sharp 5 ¼-length Maiden winner two-back.
Race #5: Selections: 8-2-1
8-Supa Speed lost all chance with a brutal journey in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes on Nov. 1 for trainer John Sadler and is eligible to bounce back strongly this afternoon. The daughter of Justify was second in a stake two-back and a sharp Maiden winner in her debut. The lightly raced Maiden 2-Slick (Ire) has an upset chance for trainer Phil D’Amato. She ran decently in her first stateside well-bet start on Nov. 3 and can move forward off that try. Her runner-up finish versus the boys at Tipperarary back in September was solid. 1-Resolve has improved each subsequent start Beyer-wise for trainer Leonard Powell and exits a sharp 9-1 upset Maiden win on Nov. 3 over a trio of these juvenile fillies (including Slick).
Race #6: Selections: 2-1-4
2-Brave Blend hasn’t shown much for trainer Dan Blacker but drops in for a first-time tag today and earned a (70) main track Beyer figure two-back, which is significantly higher than this field’s career best. This barn is a strong 5 for 14 (36%) with a $3.93 ROI for the past five years with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dirt sprint dropdowns. The speedy 1-Size Lord goes turf to dirt, takes a substantial class drop from $62,500 down to today’s bottom $20k level, and figures to be tough to reel in for Team O’Neill. 4-Pratchett hasn’t been out in nine months since a solid third-place try in his debut against better back in February. The gelding has worked well in recent weeks.
Race #7: Selections: 7-10-3
It’s a wide-open edition of the Grade 2 Seabiscuit Handicap this year with a full field of competitive colts and geldings. A perfect 2-for-2 going this 1 1/16-mile trip 7-Redistricting (GB) ships in for trainer Chad Brown off a sharp runner-up try in the G3 Knickerbocker at Belmont at the Big A. The 4-year-old gelding makes his second start off the 11-month layoff and should move forward substantially off that last hard-hitting effort. Jockey Flavien Prat is in for the ride. Of the three D’Amato entries, 10-Almendares (GB) looks the most formidable. He was a runner-up in the last pair in the G2 Del Mar Mile and City of Hope with top Beyers (98,100). The gelding loves this grass course and will appreciate the additional sixteenth of a mile to work with. 3-Seal Team had won two straight before losing in the Lure Stakes on Oct. 19, but that was his first start in nearly a year. The Mandella-trained son of War Front will surely be tighter and fitter for this.
Race #8: Selections 1-4-6
If she can rate behind other speed types here, 1-Toulouse Detrac could work out a favorable ground-saving pocket trip with Irad and upset. The 3-year-old filly wanted no part of the turf in her most recent try but was a solid 5 ½-furlong Maiden winner at Santa Anita two-back. 4-Wishes to Riches steps up off a sharp 4 ¾-length Oct. 13 Maiden score for conditioner Phil D’Amato, and it looks like she’ll set the pace again. 6-Spirit Rules took 10 tries to break her Maiden when scampering away to an easy 6 ½-length win at the bottom $20k level on Nov. 3.
Race #9: Selections 4-6-5
The successful Road Warrior 4-Carson’s Run is a Grade 1 winner, taking his last three of four starts for the Clement barn, and figures to be motoring home late. He defeated next-out-winning stablemate Deterministic in his previous start in the G3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational. A solid early race flow enhances his chances. 6-Formidable Man has won two straight for conditioner Michael McCarthy and has had an 11-week freshening since the G2 Del Mar Derby victory. The 3-year-old colt is a perfect 3 for 3 over the Del Mar grass course, and Rispoli knows him well. Of the local Southern California runners, 5-King of Gosford (GB) might be best for D’Amato. He’s still looking for his first graded stakes score but comes off a solid win in the Lure Stakes. This is a lot harder spot, however, but he gets the riding services of arguably the best jockey in the country.
